Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

Tuesday 11/27/12

Outlier Model Called 2012 Drought
An experimental forecast by a NOAA research agency predicted this past season's devastating Corn Belt heat and dryness.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 2:11PM CST 11/27/12 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
I still think our drought in Iowa started back in early July 2011. We faired extremely well because of good soil moisture and new genetics that year despite drying conditions. You could tell with the winter we had and below normal springtime rains it could be a very dry year and it was. Good soil really showed it's worth vs. sandier soil. Plus new genetics that allowed better yields than what was planted in the 80's. Lots of times you hear of droughts lasting a couple years and I don't look for this to be any different altho I would expect it to worsen to the north and west. Some areas that were affected towards the south and east may see improvement. Overall don't expect a record year in 2013 even tho the USDA likes to start out predicting one each year. Point is there will be some good marketing opportunities again in 2013. So far the fall has been very dry ( like last year ) and I personally don't look for a rough winter. We will need some substantial springtime rains to get the crops off to a good start next year.
Posted by Greg Schipull at 4:12PM CST 11/27/12
The NW half of Iowa has indeed had some kind of drought classification for now well over a year. The rest of the state was out of drought per the Drought Monitor during late winter into late spring of this year. The western Corn Belt and northern/central Plains has the most extensive drought at this time of year in the history of the Drought Monitor according to D.M. archives. In the Southern Plains, Texas is not as bad as a year ago, but the Texas Panhandle north through Oklahoma and Kansas are almost like they were same time last year on drought categories.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 5:07AM CST 11/28/12
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