Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

Monday 05/20/13

The "Seventy-Percenters"
U.S. corn growers coalesced into an exclusive group over the past week with record planting progress.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 4:04PM CDT 05/20/13 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (8)
The idea that this crop has "caught up" is a falsehood led by percentages. As you approach 100%, the progress has no where to go but catch up. The leaders have no where to go, except to wait and lead at the next measuring point. Barring an unusual amount of heat units from June 10 through July 15, this crop will be 10 days behind at every "major" measuring point. Emergence will be 10 days behind average, tassel will be 10 days behind, etc, etc. Unless there's heat to push things along, it still takes a relatively set amount of time for things to happen. So, either we have unusual heat early to push this crop, or this 10 day late crop would line up pollination with "normal" higher heat levels in mid-late July - either way, I just don't see how that suddenly, shockingly, all the weather premium should disappear from the market.
Posted by Unknown at 6:17PM CDT 05/20/13
You are right late is late no matter how you look at it.And now we are dry, very dry.Corn and beans that are planted have not had any water since back in mid April.Chemicals are not working and fields are getting weedy. But yet I don't understand either how corn that should be knee high but yet is just a seed is now on track to a normal yield.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 7:01PM CDT 05/20/13
Thanks for the comments. USDA has factored in the late plantings in the May WASDE report, when projected corn yields declined from 163.6 Bu/A to 158 Bu/A. That follows the methodology that USDA researchers discussed at the Ag Outlook conference back in February. The biggest influence on yields is of course July weather. Using an ballpark time line of 7 days to emergence, the 41.8 million acres planted last week (43 pct of the corn crop) will emerge by the end of this week. And, using an estimated 70 days after planting for silking, you're looking at the July 29 time frame for silking of this big percentage of the corn crop.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 5:22AM CDT 05/21/13
SE And SC MN. have allot less planted than that. Talk of prevented plantings are here. June 1st is the date. We are more like 35% planted . I question the number they just put out with all other states than us having moisture problems. This isn't just a small area and none of our corn has been planted in good conditions at all. Raining now and no let up in the future. We have had 3.5 days to plant and conditions were terrible. Look at the numbers, May 5th we started to lose yield and things have got worse. There will be acres not planted here. No beans planted here either. We usually have beans started by the 1st of May.
Posted by tbs farms at 6:24AM CDT 05/21/13
1
Posted by Unknown at 12:00PM CDT 05/21/13
Best crop in 28 years as far as emergence and seed spacing. Corn and beans are up in 6 days without a rain. We live in west central INDIANA. We are 100% done as of the 16th of may. Looking out our back door I see 3$ corn this fall, we all have the tendency to only see what is out our back door. I hope all farmers with crops to get in have a window. But this market will test our patience. As it does every day,week month and year. This market needs a weather problem to sustain a resonable price level.. Remember when corn was 2.80
Posted by james earl at 6:17PM CDT 05/21/13
I have been wondering what % of this corn crop has been planted in good soil conditions? Growers get nervous when they see the forecast is calling for more rain in a few days and their planter is still parked in the shed from the last rain. So unfortunately what happens (most growers are guilty of making this mistake at some point) is planters get to the field a day or two too early in less than ideal conditions. Also I've seen disks & field cultivators taken to the field to "help dry things out" ahead of the planter which adds to the problem. If the belt has ideal or close to it growing conditions this summer then it probably won't be a big issue. But if heat and dryness return then problems would show up earlier than they might otherwise would have. Just something to consider.
Posted by SHAWN WOOLLEN at 9:08PM CDT 05/21/13
I cant verify that these planting numbers are correct with friends and family across corn belt. I would really be concerned with corn yields being able to top the 140 mark with late planting, poor chemical performance, and who really knows what July holds for us weather wise. The USDA will have to find a way to correct their mark which seems unrealistic. I wish everyone the best for sure.
Posted by DAVIS SPRAGUE at 12:05PM CDT 05/22/13
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