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DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
Model Uncertainty Re SW Plains
Changing depictions of southwest Plains rain chances show model uncertainty and challenges in handling spring systems.
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Posted at 10:21AM CDT 03/31/14 by Bryce Anderson |
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Just for some additional reference--Amarillo, TX has .59 inches precipitation since Jan 1, down 2.08 inches from average. A year ago, Amarillo had received 3.44 inches precipitation. Dodge City, KS year to date has 1.11 inches precip, down 1.74 inches from average. A year ago, the Dodge City precip total year to date was 1.64 inches.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 10:50AM CDT 03/31/14
Thank you for paying attention to our intensifying drought. Chrissy Scotten of the National Weather Bureau of Amarillo reported today on our local radio station that the past 42 months(3.5 years) is the driest in recorded history for our area. Drier than any 42 month period during the Dust Bowl of the 30s or the drought of the 50s. We are thankful for more no-till, but another year of this and we may have rangeland blowing in addition to cropland, no-till or not!
Posted by JANET TREGELLAS at 1:47PM CDT 03/31/14
Which model has a greater % of being accurate? Surely there is a statistician that keeps track of which one is more consistent.
Posted by Mr. Brandy at 2:11PM CDT 03/31/14
Janet--good to hear from you and I appreciate that detail. I knew that this drought was in the same league as the Dust Bowl and the 1950s event but I didn't realize that it had surpassed those droughts to this extent. Thank you for sending that in. I think that the drought is getting more visibility.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 3:13PM CDT 03/31/14
Mr. Brandy--I do not know of any study on the track record of the forecast models. The transition between seasons--especially coming out of winter--is a challenging time for these productions. Our view--and other forecast shops as well--is that in a set pattern like we have seen, unless and until there is a definite change, we will stick with the trend. As I noted in the blog, the fact that a change is always presented at the edge of the forecast time frame, and thus far has not been brought forward, is a feature that makes us suspicious as to the authenticity of that depiction.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 3:17PM CDT 03/31/14
I don't know what to make of our high tech weather forecasting, weather was calling we could get 10'' of snow with big spring blizzard, I don't think we got 1/2 '' of snow. Called school off when sun was shinning. The media anymore reports information without facts, all it does is breeds fear and hype into everything. Another example , those poor family members of the lost 777, having to listen to the medias BS as to what happened to plane and not one shred of proof or evidence as to what happened to it . The media instills fear into markets , peoples lives, its a controlling sector of our lives anymore, which is sad I think.
Posted by GWL 61 at 10:15AM CDT 04/01/14
Hey GWL,you can always turn off Fox News!
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 11:52AM CDT 04/02/14
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Model Uncertainty Re SW Plains
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