Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

Wednesday 04/16/14

Another Slow Start To Spring
With the first half of April in the books we are seeing diminishing signs of spring's arrival on the weather forecast charts. Winter weather looks to be more of a player during second half of April than spring warmth.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:10AM CDT 04/16/14 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 04/14/14

Freeze Threat Details For Wheat
Details on cold-weather damage levels for wheat stages.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:08AM CDT 04/14/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (3)
Why are we even talking about cold freeze to wheat. Climate change scientists have been predicting for over 15 years that we are supposed to be drying, up heating up and blowing away due to planet warming. Yet here in S.C. Minnesota we have just endured the coldest winter in 78 years. Many of us have 4' snow banks in our rural windbreaks that just won't melt. This appears to be the second Spring in a row that we won't be able to plant timely due to (oh my gosh) climate cooling. Is it time for climate science to admit that all this climate change hype is nothing more than admitting that the earth's climate varies based upon cycles with short term cycle being about 18 years apart. I firmly believe that the northern corn belt is now back to a normal planting phase of May 3rd to may 15th like it was wen my Dad farmed(30 years ago) . Mid-April planting was an aberration due to cycle variation. Still, we found out last year that planting a lot of corn mid May still can get us record crops. Grain traders; be ware.
Posted by MARK & LEA NOWAK at 2:13PM CDT 04/14/14
Winter wheat here in Michigan,Ohio and Indiana looks to have severe winter kill. Lots of dead and bare patches,we will spray some and plant something else.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 9:26AM CDT 04/15/14
Amazing how many readers of DTN beleive that the unusually cold winter in the Midwest and Northeastern US is proof that climate change is a hoax,,,, the rest of the world must not matter because,,,, well its just not in their world which is all that matters. So as Mark states the cycle has changed back to planting dates in May,,,,, guess herbicides, seed treatments and other "modern" farming practices had nothing to do with earlier planting dates? So turn your Rush/Hanity radio up louder guys, there is more scientific reality to drown out coming our way!!!!!!
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 6:48AM CDT 04/17/14
 

Friday 04/11/14

Nebraska Spring Moisture Roundup
There's a fair amount of variability regarding crop moisture in the state of Nebraska this spring.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 3:40PM CDT 04/11/14 by Bryce Anderson | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 04/10/14

Delayed Start For Spring Field Work
The brief warm spell earlier this week helped erase the snow cover from some of the region but a renewed surge of cold weather this weekend into next week will dash the hopes of a quick start to spring.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:09AM CDT 04/10/14 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Tuesday 04/08/14

El Nino Forecast Unsettled
There is a fair amount of disagreement over the chances for El Nino influence on the 2014 crop season.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:53AM CDT 04/08/14 by Bryce Anderson | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 04/04/14

Late Start To Corn Belt Spring
Lingering effects from the cold 2013-14 winter may force some changes to northern crop area acreage.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 3:15PM CDT 04/04/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
good luck all
Posted by Mark Knobloch at 8:53PM CDT 04/04/14
Last year, 40% of the nations corn crop was planted between May 10 and May 18th. And what kind of corn crop did we get? Oh let's see. A record sized crop they say. Well that's interesting. A little early to get too hung about early April weather. Moisture is mostly good in 85% of the corn belt and so once we get planted; another record crop is possible. We all need to get equipped with 10 mph planters and we can get the crop planted in 3 days. I'm shooting for 240 bu/acre on last years prevent plant field that I still call my radish patch. Many farmers were hoping for $5 Dec '14 corn futures. We've got it now and so how many are selling? The weather market season has now officially begun. Stay tuned and pay attention.
Posted by MARK & LEA NOWAK at 6:31AM CDT 04/05/14
 

Thursday 04/03/14

Higher Temperatures Arrive Next Week in Western Canada
The cold start to April will soon be history as warming chinook winds take hold across Western Canada by early and middle of next week.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:54AM CDT 04/03/14 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 04/02/14

Caliornia Wildfire Season Looks Bad
The Far West is prime for a severe wildfire season this year.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 3:00PM CDT 04/02/14 by Bryce Anderson | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Tuesday 04/01/14

Dakotas Spring Blizzard And Livestock
Ranchers in the Northern Plains--and their cattle--were in much better shape to deal with the March 2014 snowstorm compared to last fall's catastrophic event.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:49PM CDT 04/01/14 by Bryce Anderson | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 03/31/14

Model Uncertainty Re SW Plains
Changing depictions of southwest Plains rain chances show model uncertainty and challenges in handling spring systems.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:21AM CDT 03/31/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (7)
Just for some additional reference--Amarillo, TX has .59 inches precipitation since Jan 1, down 2.08 inches from average. A year ago, Amarillo had received 3.44 inches precipitation. Dodge City, KS year to date has 1.11 inches precip, down 1.74 inches from average. A year ago, the Dodge City precip total year to date was 1.64 inches.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 10:50AM CDT 03/31/14
Thank you for paying attention to our intensifying drought. Chrissy Scotten of the National Weather Bureau of Amarillo reported today on our local radio station that the past 42 months(3.5 years) is the driest in recorded history for our area. Drier than any 42 month period during the Dust Bowl of the 30s or the drought of the 50s. We are thankful for more no-till, but another year of this and we may have rangeland blowing in addition to cropland, no-till or not!
Posted by JANET TREGELLAS at 1:47PM CDT 03/31/14
Which model has a greater % of being accurate? Surely there is a statistician that keeps track of which one is more consistent.
Posted by Mr. Brandy at 2:11PM CDT 03/31/14
Janet--good to hear from you and I appreciate that detail. I knew that this drought was in the same league as the Dust Bowl and the 1950s event but I didn't realize that it had surpassed those droughts to this extent. Thank you for sending that in. I think that the drought is getting more visibility.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 3:13PM CDT 03/31/14
Mr. Brandy--I do not know of any study on the track record of the forecast models. The transition between seasons--especially coming out of winter--is a challenging time for these productions. Our view--and other forecast shops as well--is that in a set pattern like we have seen, unless and until there is a definite change, we will stick with the trend. As I noted in the blog, the fact that a change is always presented at the edge of the forecast time frame, and thus far has not been brought forward, is a feature that makes us suspicious as to the authenticity of that depiction.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 3:17PM CDT 03/31/14
I don't know what to make of our high tech weather forecasting, weather was calling we could get 10'' of snow with big spring blizzard, I don't think we got 1/2 '' of snow. Called school off when sun was shinning. The media anymore reports information without facts, all it does is breeds fear and hype into everything. Another example , those poor family members of the lost 777, having to listen to the medias BS as to what happened to plane and not one shred of proof or evidence as to what happened to it . The media instills fear into markets , peoples lives, its a controlling sector of our lives anymore, which is sad I think.
Posted by GWL 61 at 10:15AM CDT 04/01/14
Hey GWL,you can always turn off Fox News!
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 11:52AM CDT 04/02/14
 

Thursday 03/27/14

Cold Pattern Starts To Diminish
The very cold weather pattern of the past week will start to lose its grip on Western Canada as we move into next week. Precipitation continues to look lackluster, allowing snow cover to slowly melt down.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:44AM CDT 03/27/14 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Tuesday 03/25/14

Harsh Midwest Winter Details
A look back at the winter (Dec/Jan/Feb) season 2013-14 by the NOAA Central Region Climate Office has -- as you might guess -- some extreme numbers in terms of cold, snow, and ice.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 2:09PM CDT 03/25/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
There is almost no snow cover south of MPLS so its gonna have to rain alot to have any flooding.
Posted by Paul Beiser at 1:16PM CDT 03/26/14
 

Friday 03/21/14

NOAA Flood Outlook Significant
Flood risk for 2014 spring reinforces ideas of a late start to Midwest spring field work.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 3:42PM CDT 03/21/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
Do you think there will be significant flooded acres to affect corn prices.
Posted by WARREN HARDY at 10:08PM CDT 03/23/14
Some but not a rip-roaring rally. In 2013 prevent-plant acreage was around 9.4 million, mostly due to the heavy rains in the northern Corn Belt. Average prevent-plant is I believe around 3.5 million acres. The flood outlook seems to suggest that the more average flooding issue is likely.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 9:49AM CDT 03/24/14
 

Thursday 03/20/14

Cold Weather Keeps on Coming in Canada
After a week or 10 days of more seasonable temperatures across Western Canada, a renewed push of arctic air during the next several days will slow down the onset of spring.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:03AM CDT 03/20/14 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 03/19/14

Ukraine And South Russia Weather
Warmer and dry conditions are forecast to re-develop over Ukraine and south Russia.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 12:37PM CDT 03/19/14 by Joel Burgio | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
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Recent Blog Posts
  • Another Slow Start To Spring
  • Freeze Threat Details For Wheat
  • Nebraska Spring Moisture Roundup
  • Delayed Start For Spring Field Work
  • El Nino Forecast Unsettled
  • Late Start To Corn Belt Spring
  • Higher Temperatures Arrive Next Week in Western Canada
  • Caliornia Wildfire Season Looks Bad
  • Dakotas Spring Blizzard And Livestock
  • Model Uncertainty Re SW Plains
  • Cold Pattern Starts To Diminish
  • Harsh Midwest Winter Details
  • NOAA Flood Outlook Significant
  • Cold Weather Keeps on Coming in Canada
  • Ukraine And South Russia Weather
  • Increasing Weather Concerns in Midwest, Plains
  • Troubling California Drought Survey
  • Harshest Cold Stays Mostly East of the Prairies
  • Missouri River Flood Forecast
  • About The El Nino Watch