Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

Thursday 04/24/14

Cold Spring Leads to Late Start for Canadian Farmers
Chilly weather from the past winter has lasted well into spring across Western Canada. Near-to-below-normal precipitation early in the spring is being followed by a wetter pattern leading to more fieldwork delays for farmers.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:47AM CDT 04/24/14 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Wednesday 04/23/14

NOAA: Warm Streak Continues
World temperatures in March again were above 20th-century averages.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:30AM CDT 04/23/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Bryce, Not a very good morning for me to be reading about global warming. Cold cold and more cold for southern Minnesota. Second Spring in a row that we won't have one April day suitable for field work. When will we here start participating in this warmth? Glad to read that over all global sea ice is actually increasing. Maybe global climate change isn't as dire as some want us to believe.
Posted by MARK & LEA NOWAK at 8:09AM CDT 04/24/14

Monday 04/21/14

El Nino Update
A key Pacific Ocean indicator shows a neutral tone.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 5:19PM CDT 04/21/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
By now,it looks like a weak one
Posted by Bill Liu at 7:28PM CDT 04/21/14

Friday 04/18/14

Jet Stream Research Called "Holy Grail" in Understanding Climate-Change Impact
Thinning of northern sea ice may be a major factor behind weather extremes in the Northern Hemisphere.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:39AM CDT 04/18/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (18)
Why are planting dates moving later.
Posted by ELDON HAISCH at 4:07PM CDT 04/18/14
Why do I have ice on the dog dish in April?
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 7:17AM CDT 04/19/14
Why do we keep listening to these power hungry money grubbing elitist fools ?
Posted by GORDON KEYES at 9:52PM CDT 04/19/14
Bryce, Predict the weather not push the agenda!!
Posted by Unknown at 9:59PM CDT 04/19/14
I agree that the earth is warming and the climate has been changing since the last ice age. I just don't believe man has very much to do with it. A scientist is supposed to have a theory, collect data ,study data, form a conclusion. These globe warming people have formed their conclusion tried to obtain data to support their conclusion, altered the data when it didn't support their conclusion and continue to receive taxpayer money to further their studies
Posted by FRANK FULWIDER at 9:01AM CDT 04/20/14
What we need is a weather station like Fox News where the weather can be sanitized to fit the corporate agenda. Something like its great the polar ice is melting so now Exxon can drill for more oil! Once the polar bears are extinct more tourism will be available to see the land wasted by tar sands extraction! Large hurricanes make for much more exciting news and heat waves of temperatures over 115 f will make for some really good evening footage and of course the new dust bowls winding over Oklahoma and Kansas will spawn some great literature like the mini-dust bowl did in the 30's. Look at the bright side guys and stop listening to those elitist fools. Bryce you're missing the chance of being the "weather Rush Limbo"!!!!!
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 10:55AM CDT 04/20/14
Thanks for this article, Bryce!!! I'm glad somebody is concerned and studying climate change.
Posted by Jo at 7:04PM CDT 04/20/14
Jay you really should listen to Fox News it is the only place you get both sides of the news. The main stream media will only give you the leftist side of a topic or will ignore or distort it. CBS had one of their top investigative reporter quit because they would kill or water down her report to point it meant nothing. Sharyl Attkinsson the woman had the guts to tell the world just what goes on in most of these supposed news outlets. You change your story to fit their narrative or it is not reported. It is pretty much liberal propaganda.
Posted by GORDON KEYES at 11:14AM CDT 04/21/14
Who says I get my news from CBS? I go to the BBC,, just because Fox says "fair and balanced" you think they are?
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 11:23AM CDT 04/21/14
Jay, I bet you listen to NPR all day long too... I would contest that, why should we be the ones that have to make sacrifices to "Save the Planet", when China and other up and coming societies just make the matter worse. I don't see the point in us spending trilliions of dollars on renewable energy that is unsustainable, so we have to ship our "dirty oil and coal" to China and they are burning it instead of us. Does that make sense to rest of you?? If it does, you better wake up and open your eyes, and start to look at the world how it is, not how you want it to look. That oil and coal that lefties don't want us to burn is getting burned someplace whether you like it or not. That is just how it is and how it is going to be. Now why can't we be taking advantage of that ourselves??
Posted by RJZ Peterson at 1:49PM CDT 04/21/14
The Climate Change deniers sound pretty much like the 15th Century Flat Earth Society advocates. We know how that ended. More bullets please for all you messenger shooters. FYI, a good TV watch is currently the Showtime "Years of Living Dangerously". GOP Governor Schwarzenegger is one of the show's principles. He is examining the effect of climate change on the dramatic increase in wildfires by joining a U.S.Forest Service Hot Shot crew in Montana. The California wildfire season is now a year around phenomenon. He saw this first hand as wildfires ravaged California. He admits he was a skeptic. Not anymore. Whether you agree with his political or environmental views is certainly your privilege. However, the information is based on sound science. and empirical examination. This show is an eye-opener for some of us skeptics.
Posted by T JAMES DAVIS at 1:57PM CDT 04/21/14
What I'm incredulous about is the fact that there actually are people that are so naive, so idealistic, and so gullible to think that there is no big money agenda on the "green" energy side. Big money is behind Big Oil? YA THINK? Wow. The sky is blue too. But when it comes to Algore and other leftist puppet masters, oh no, they are as pure as the driven snow. Once again, you sheep on the left, what it is is the last scene in Animal Farm. If you are lucky, you will someday realize it.
Posted by Brandon Butler at 2:12PM CDT 04/21/14
The climate has always changed, for 4.5 billion years. Probably man has something to do with it but possibly not a lot. One readable history of it can be found in the following book: The Maunder Minimum and the Variable Sun-Earth Connection by Willie Wai-Hock Soon, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and Steven H. Yaskell, 2003, reprinted 2007. Extremely interestingly, the sun's just past 11 year magnetic cycle was the biggest dud in over 150 years and the magnitude of the next one is highly unknown. Beliefs might be useful on Sundays, but for political validity, facts are needed.
Posted by H. Clay Daulton at 2:39PM CDT 04/21/14
Volcanoes have much more greenhouse gas than anything else.
Posted by Morris Drummond at 4:58PM CDT 04/21/14
The whole volcano-versus-society subject has been addressed here before--but once again--Volcanoes do NOT generate more greenhouse gas than produced by society. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the world's volcanoes, both on land and undersea, generate about 200 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually, while our automotive and industrial activities cause some 24 BILLION tons of CO2 emissions every year worldwide. Despite the arguments to the contrary, the facts speak for themselves: Greenhouse gas emissions from volcanoes comprise less than 1--one--percent of those generated by today's human endeavors.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 5:38PM CDT 04/21/14
You mean somebody finally figured out the SUN might have something to do with climate change ? I am truly impressed ! P.S. don't tell Al GORE he to much fun to watch.
Posted by GORDON KEYES at 5:39PM CDT 04/21/14
Volcanoes do produce tremendous greenhouse gas emissions. Volcanoes are a uncontrollable force of nature. Burning of tropical rainforests are controllable forces of man. The Brazilians have greatly curtailed the burning of their forests and that is a good thing if you are a U.S. soybean grower. If you are an Indonesian palm oil producer, reducing soybean production anywhere is a good thing for their edible oil production in a global economy. If tropical rain forests, in Indonesia, are burned the amount of carbon released into atmosphere from forests that have been carbon sinks since before man has existed is definitely a losing proposition because the palm plantations cannot replace the carbon storage capacity of mother nature. Deforestation by burning the vegetation that is storing carbon releases as much greenhouse gas emissions as all auto and truck emissions in the world per year. People, like us farmers, who proclaim that "sound science" should be the dictum of progress if we are using new and effective chemical can't have it both ways regarding climate change if the facts are "sound science" based. "Sound science" is a good agenda for all us farmers.
Posted by T JAMES DAVIS at 5:55PM CDT 04/21/14
Good grief people! The only thing we can be sure of is that our weather is unpredictable and it is going to change regardless of the bs people try an preach. Mother Nature will have the final say. Let us not forget that no mater how greedy we are or how many acres there is to plant.
Posted by GWL 61 at 7:10PM CDT 04/21/14
Cautious El Nino Timetable
El Nino may be on the way, but its impact for 2014 will likely be less than hoped.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 6:51AM CDT 04/18/14 by Bryce Anderson | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Wednesday 04/16/14

Another Slow Start To Spring
With the first half of April in the books we are seeing diminishing signs of spring's arrival on the weather forecast charts. Winter weather looks to be more of a player during second half of April than spring warmth.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:10AM CDT 04/16/14 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Monday 04/14/14

Freeze Threat Details For Wheat
Details on cold-weather damage levels for wheat stages.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:08AM CDT 04/14/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (3)
Why are we even talking about cold freeze to wheat. Climate change scientists have been predicting for over 15 years that we are supposed to be drying, up heating up and blowing away due to planet warming. Yet here in S.C. Minnesota we have just endured the coldest winter in 78 years. Many of us have 4' snow banks in our rural windbreaks that just won't melt. This appears to be the second Spring in a row that we won't be able to plant timely due to (oh my gosh) climate cooling. Is it time for climate science to admit that all this climate change hype is nothing more than admitting that the earth's climate varies based upon cycles with short term cycle being about 18 years apart. I firmly believe that the northern corn belt is now back to a normal planting phase of May 3rd to may 15th like it was wen my Dad farmed(30 years ago) . Mid-April planting was an aberration due to cycle variation. Still, we found out last year that planting a lot of corn mid May still can get us record crops. Grain traders; be ware.
Posted by MARK & LEA NOWAK at 2:13PM CDT 04/14/14
Winter wheat here in Michigan,Ohio and Indiana looks to have severe winter kill. Lots of dead and bare patches,we will spray some and plant something else.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 9:26AM CDT 04/15/14
Amazing how many readers of DTN beleive that the unusually cold winter in the Midwest and Northeastern US is proof that climate change is a hoax,,,, the rest of the world must not matter because,,,, well its just not in their world which is all that matters. So as Mark states the cycle has changed back to planting dates in May,,,,, guess herbicides, seed treatments and other "modern" farming practices had nothing to do with earlier planting dates? So turn your Rush/Hanity radio up louder guys, there is more scientific reality to drown out coming our way!!!!!!
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 6:48AM CDT 04/17/14

Friday 04/11/14

Nebraska Spring Moisture Roundup
There's a fair amount of variability regarding crop moisture in the state of Nebraska this spring.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 3:40PM CDT 04/11/14 by Bryce Anderson | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Thursday 04/10/14

Delayed Start For Spring Field Work
The brief warm spell earlier this week helped erase the snow cover from some of the region but a renewed surge of cold weather this weekend into next week will dash the hopes of a quick start to spring.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:09AM CDT 04/10/14 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Tuesday 04/08/14

El Nino Forecast Unsettled
There is a fair amount of disagreement over the chances for El Nino influence on the 2014 crop season.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:53AM CDT 04/08/14 by Bryce Anderson | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Friday 04/04/14

Late Start To Corn Belt Spring
Lingering effects from the cold 2013-14 winter may force some changes to northern crop area acreage.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 3:15PM CDT 04/04/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
good luck all
Posted by Mark Knobloch at 8:53PM CDT 04/04/14
Last year, 40% of the nations corn crop was planted between May 10 and May 18th. And what kind of corn crop did we get? Oh let's see. A record sized crop they say. Well that's interesting. A little early to get too hung about early April weather. Moisture is mostly good in 85% of the corn belt and so once we get planted; another record crop is possible. We all need to get equipped with 10 mph planters and we can get the crop planted in 3 days. I'm shooting for 240 bu/acre on last years prevent plant field that I still call my radish patch. Many farmers were hoping for $5 Dec '14 corn futures. We've got it now and so how many are selling? The weather market season has now officially begun. Stay tuned and pay attention.
Posted by MARK & LEA NOWAK at 6:31AM CDT 04/05/14

Thursday 04/03/14

Higher Temperatures Arrive Next Week in Western Canada
The cold start to April will soon be history as warming chinook winds take hold across Western Canada by early and middle of next week.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:54AM CDT 04/03/14 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Wednesday 04/02/14

Caliornia Wildfire Season Looks Bad
The Far West is prime for a severe wildfire season this year.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 3:00PM CDT 04/02/14 by Bryce Anderson | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Tuesday 04/01/14

Dakotas Spring Blizzard And Livestock
Ranchers in the Northern Plains--and their cattle--were in much better shape to deal with the March 2014 snowstorm compared to last fall's catastrophic event.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:49PM CDT 04/01/14 by Bryce Anderson | 0 Comments | Post a Comment

Monday 03/31/14

Model Uncertainty Re SW Plains
Changing depictions of southwest Plains rain chances show model uncertainty and challenges in handling spring systems.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:21AM CDT 03/31/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (7)
Just for some additional reference--Amarillo, TX has .59 inches precipitation since Jan 1, down 2.08 inches from average. A year ago, Amarillo had received 3.44 inches precipitation. Dodge City, KS year to date has 1.11 inches precip, down 1.74 inches from average. A year ago, the Dodge City precip total year to date was 1.64 inches.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 10:50AM CDT 03/31/14
Thank you for paying attention to our intensifying drought. Chrissy Scotten of the National Weather Bureau of Amarillo reported today on our local radio station that the past 42 months(3.5 years) is the driest in recorded history for our area. Drier than any 42 month period during the Dust Bowl of the 30s or the drought of the 50s. We are thankful for more no-till, but another year of this and we may have rangeland blowing in addition to cropland, no-till or not!
Posted by JANET TREGELLAS at 1:47PM CDT 03/31/14
Which model has a greater % of being accurate? Surely there is a statistician that keeps track of which one is more consistent.
Posted by Mr. Brandy at 2:11PM CDT 03/31/14
Janet--good to hear from you and I appreciate that detail. I knew that this drought was in the same league as the Dust Bowl and the 1950s event but I didn't realize that it had surpassed those droughts to this extent. Thank you for sending that in. I think that the drought is getting more visibility.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 3:13PM CDT 03/31/14
Mr. Brandy--I do not know of any study on the track record of the forecast models. The transition between seasons--especially coming out of winter--is a challenging time for these productions. Our view--and other forecast shops as well--is that in a set pattern like we have seen, unless and until there is a definite change, we will stick with the trend. As I noted in the blog, the fact that a change is always presented at the edge of the forecast time frame, and thus far has not been brought forward, is a feature that makes us suspicious as to the authenticity of that depiction.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 3:17PM CDT 03/31/14
I don't know what to make of our high tech weather forecasting, weather was calling we could get 10'' of snow with big spring blizzard, I don't think we got 1/2 '' of snow. Called school off when sun was shinning. The media anymore reports information without facts, all it does is breeds fear and hype into everything. Another example , those poor family members of the lost 777, having to listen to the medias BS as to what happened to plane and not one shred of proof or evidence as to what happened to it . The media instills fear into markets , peoples lives, its a controlling sector of our lives anymore, which is sad I think.
Posted by GWL 61 at 10:15AM CDT 04/01/14
Hey GWL,you can always turn off Fox News!
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 11:52AM CDT 04/02/14
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Recent Blog Posts
  • Cold Spring Leads to Late Start for Canadian Farmers
  • NOAA: Warm Streak Continues
  • El Nino Update
  • Jet Stream Research Called "Holy Grail" in Understanding Climate-Change Impact
  • Cautious El Nino Timetable
  • Another Slow Start To Spring
  • Freeze Threat Details For Wheat
  • Nebraska Spring Moisture Roundup
  • Delayed Start For Spring Field Work
  • El Nino Forecast Unsettled
  • Late Start To Corn Belt Spring
  • Higher Temperatures Arrive Next Week in Western Canada
  • Caliornia Wildfire Season Looks Bad
  • Dakotas Spring Blizzard And Livestock
  • Model Uncertainty Re SW Plains
  • Cold Pattern Starts To Diminish
  • Harsh Midwest Winter Details
  • NOAA Flood Outlook Significant
  • Cold Weather Keeps on Coming in Canada
  • Ukraine And South Russia Weather