Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

Tuesday 07/29/14

General Mills Climate Change Policy
The third-largest food processing company in the U.S. announces plans to track greenhouse gas emission by its suppliers in order to help mitigate the impact of climate change.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:41AM CDT 07/29/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (3)
This is good as long as they follow through and that the practices are truly "sustainable". All industries need to have similar polices as in the end creating a smaller carbon footprint is not only good for the environment but also reduces their usage of fossil fuels which are rapidly depleting. Hopefully General Mills will become a model company in this area.
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 6:00AM CDT 07/30/14
Would be nice if they defined their goals and defined what they mean by sustainable agriculture. Without specifics it looks like they are just patting themselves on the back to look green for uninformed consumers like they did when they said Cheerios were GMO free. Average consumer doesn't know oats are all non-GMO. Nice advertising but show us what you really plan to do.
Posted by David Kessler at 9:44AM CDT 07/30/14
I was in the Teamsters Union for 30 years and have developed a real good B.S. detector and right now it is going off big time.
Posted by GORDON KEYES at 10:45AM CDT 07/30/14
 

Monday 07/28/14

Southwest Water Loss Is Incredible
The Colorado River basin is truly getting drained by drought and a true shortfall of conservation action.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:57AM CDT 07/28/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
If the arrogance of the people continues, I hope I live far enough away when the taps won't run. Like every thing else, just a little conservation and common sense would accomplish much.
Posted by Bonnie Dukowitz at 6:00AM CDT 07/29/14
Desalinization plants run by solar, wind, geothermal ,or nuclear are going to have to be built if the population continues to rise where there is not consistent rain fall. Some common sense would be in order to not build nuclear plants on a earth quake zone or were they are prone to tide waves. These are the carbon neutral solutions that put people to work and produce a badly needed product, like potable water. This is to much common sense to a problem and not likely to happen any time soon.
Posted by Rex Steffes at 9:46AM CDT 07/29/14
 

Friday 07/25/14

Climate Trends And Farmer Questions
Reflections on food production issues discussed in the context of climate change.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:48PM CDT 07/25/14 by Bryce Anderson | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 07/24/14

Canadian Crops Benefit From Warmer, Drier Weather
A more favorable weather pattern in place across the Prairies since mid-July has brought a beneficial boost to crop development. Aerial coverage of excess soil moisture has been on the decrease; after the current rainy spell passes another lengthy spell of warm, mostly dry weather is expected.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:53AM CDT 07/24/14 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 07/23/14

Mostly Favorable August Rain Forecast
Midwest and Plains crop areas have a good chance at late-summer rainfall.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 12:39PM CDT 07/23/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (7)
Reminder note--when you respond to topics, keep your comments pertaining to the topic and keep it civil regarding your fellow posters. Do that and we're good. Thanks.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 2:45PM CDT 07/23/14
Mr. Anderson, This is what I was referring to. From the Daily Mail online, July 5th. For years, computer simulations have predicted that sea ice should be disappearing from the Poles. Now, with the news that Antarctic sea-ice levels have hit new highs, comes yet another mishap to tarnish the credibility of climate science. Climatologists base their doom-laden predictions of the Earth's climate on computer simulations. But these have long been the subject of ridicule because of their stunning failure to predict the pause in warming--nearly 18 years long on some measures--since the turn of the last century. It's the same with sea ice. We hear a great deal about the decline in Arctic sea ice, in line with or even ahead of predictions. But why are environmentalists and scientists so much less keen to discuss the long-term increase in the southern hemisphere? In fact, across the globe, there are about one million square kilometres more sea ice than 35 years ago, which is when satellite measurements began. It's fair to say that this has been something of an embarrassment for climate modellers. But it doesn't stop there. In recent days a new scandal over the integrity of temperature data has emerged, this time in America, where it has been revealed as much as 40 per cent of temperature data there are not real thermometer readings. Many temperature stations have closed, but rather than stop recording data from these posts, the authorities have taken the remarkable step of "estimating" temperatures based on the records of surrounding stations. So vast swathes of the data are actually from "zombie" stations that have long since disappeared. This is bad enough, but it has also been discovered that the US's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is using estimates even when perfectly good raw data is available to it--and that it has adjusted historical records. Why should it do this? Many have noted that the effect of all these changes is to produce a warmer present and a colder past, with the net result being the impression of much faster warming. They draw their conclusions accordingly. Naturally, if the US temperature records are indeed found to have been manipulated, this is unlikely to greatly affect our overall picture of rising temperatures at the end of the last century and a standstill thereafter. The US is, after all, only a small proportion of the globe. Similarly, climatologists' difficulties with the sea ice may be of little scientific significance in the greater scheme of things. We have only a few decades of data, and in climate terms this is probably too short to demonstrate that either the Antarctic increase or the Arctic decrease is anything other than natural variability. But the relentless focus by activist scientists on the Arctic decline does suggest a political imperative rather than a scientific one--and when put together with the story of the US temperature records, it's hard to avoid the impression that what the public is being told is less than the unvarnished truth. As their credulity is stretched more and more, the public will--quite rightly--treat demands for action with increasing caution... Andrew Mountford
Posted by Brandon Butler at 3:27PM CDT 07/23/14
looks like sept-oct august not soon enough any way for some
Posted by andrew mohlman at 11:36PM CDT 07/23/14
Nothing in the forecast 14 days out. By then it will be too late as crop are stressed already. Better check that August forecast again.
Posted by LYLE FISHER at 7:52AM CDT 07/24/14
Hope you're right Bryce - providing the forecast for precip materializes this weekend, I will have gone nearly a month with only 1.2 inches. BTW Brandon, I agree that modeling is only as good as the people entering the raw data - witness American vs European forecast models.
Posted by Curt Zingula at 8:11AM CDT 07/24/14
You may be interested in this article from the National Snow and Ice Data Center on what's happening in the Antarctic. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 10:15AM CDT 07/24/14
Bryce, Thanks to you and all DTN weather team. Providing you best guess is all the client base can reasonably expect. We are all guilty of certain biases and interpretations. The process of debate is always helpful and thought provoking. I also appreciate opposing views on some of the bigger climate issues included in the comment section. Allowing clients to voice their opinions is a hallmark of a democratic society.
Posted by McFly at 10:35AM CDT 07/24/14
 

Friday 07/18/14

2013 State Of The Climate Report
NOAA's review of global climate trends for 2013 shows that planet Earth continued the steady warming pattern.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:24PM CDT 07/18/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (20)
Bryce, isn't it true that before the ice age at the time of dinosaurs the planet was much warmer, green house gases much higher levels than today to feed the much bigger and more abundant plant life. To make it sound that humans can change the climate and stop something that is occurring naturally as it has in the past is irresponsible. We need to prepare and use tools to adapt. We will use farming as an example, it is forecasted the the upper Midwest ( prairie pothole region) will experience more rain and larger events yet at the same time these groups are forcing policy that are taking away drainage rights and tools away from this region. These are the facts. Current policies are not addressing the problems correctly.
Posted by Unknown at 10:41PM CDT 07/18/14
Bryce: I am not sure where you are getting your data, but red-faced NOAA had to admit recently that there has been no warming since 1996. The U.N. data is completely fabricated.
Posted by tom vogel at 7:14AM CDT 07/19/14
I'm wondering why nitrous oxide doesn't get more press? Its mentioned here but there are no quantitative values. Nitrous oxide is 296 times more persistent than CO2 - my generation won't make a climate difference with that! In my area, environmentalists are constantly attacking drainage tile. Unwittingly, they don't seem to realize how much drainage tile can reduce denitrification - the production of nitrous oxide. Are the environmentalists ignorant about agriculture or is global warming/carbon dioxide their avenue to assert socialist behavior?!
Posted by Curt Zingula at 7:17AM CDT 07/19/14
Farming forty miles south of Chicago, we had our third coldest winter in 140 years and we just set another record for the lowest high temperature for the July 15th of 67 degrees for the high that day. Curt is right about the tile.
Posted by Rex Steffes at 12:34PM CDT 07/20/14
I guess that since Chicago's weather determines the price of grain it should also determine the state of global climate? I did see in C-3 website (climate, conservative, consumer) what Tom refers to in his reference. This website shows with graphs that increases in atmospheric carbon (which by the way it denies is happening on the same page) corresponds to increase of grain yields since 1960 so it concludes that carbon is a good thing to grain production, let's tell seed companies like Pioneer that we haven't needed their research, yields are going up because of increases in carbon that C-3 also says is a hoax! This is the "science" that conservatives point to in climate denial. You know I was in the super market and saw a newspaper that claimed Elvis never died and that a "Batboy" was found in a cave! Its all in print, I am sure its real and so why the heck listen to 97% of climate scientists or any scientists when we just want to believe what we want to believe?
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 5:15PM CDT 07/20/14
Jay, it's good to make jokes. but just to be clear we are talking about proposed laws that will hurt our ability to feed the world. You can't eat dirt, you can't eat recyclables, Pioneer, Monsanto and other seed companies are giving us the traits we need to double our yields so we can feed and fuel this world. I am positive the earth is warming and cooling and warming and cooling. I wonder if the reported rise in greenhouse gasses was caused by plants using less co2 in 2012? Plants shut down before grain fill in a lot of fields.
Posted by Mark KIngma at 6:10AM CDT 07/21/14
The climate has always been changing. What caused the glaciers in North America to melt? It must have been GLOBAL WARMING!!!
Posted by JEFF HANSON at 8:01AM CDT 07/21/14
I'm referring to the glacial meltdown that took place hundreds of years ago! Was that caused by native americans keeping warm around their campfires?
Posted by JEFF HANSON at 8:37AM CDT 07/21/14
Oh you're so silly Jeff, natives and as far as that the entire worlds population wasn't burning 90 million barrels of oil per day plus millions of tons of coal,,, in fact they weren't burning ANY fossil fuels! What you fail to understand is that fossil fuels are stored carbon which accumulated over millions of years (yes there are scientists out there that believe the world is older then 5000 years) and releasing this carbon in huge quantities for only <100 years is turning us back to a prehistoric atmosphere. And yes Mark you are right, you can't eat dirt so what kind of ag will exist when all the fossil fuels are depleted? There are better ways to power our transportation system and power the grid, why don't we make the switch now instead of drilling deeper and mining Canadian tar sands which takes a HUGE carbon footprint to extract??? Hanity and Rush are right, there is a "Mideast" of oil in North America,,, only they fail to say it will take another "mideast" of oil to extract it!
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 9:50AM CDT 07/21/14
Jay,you still haven't answered as to why North America warmed up to melt the glaciers hundreds of years ago?
Posted by JEFF HANSON at 12:01PM CDT 07/21/14
I'm waiting to here for your response Jay. It seems people don't look any farther than they can see. The glaciers melting and moving thru the glacial lake system seems to never be addressed along with the ice from the last ice age melting.
Posted by Unknown at 7:34PM CDT 07/21/14
Oh wow,,, you guys are on to something I am sure scientists never thought of this! Hurry and call NOAA so they can tell 97% of all scientists they are wrong!
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 5:28AM CDT 07/22/14
Well then answer the question Jay, your here shooting off your mouth as to how much fossil fuels is to blame for our current climate change. You surely should have an educated idea as to why the glaciers melted. And keep NOAA and your scientist out of it.
Posted by GWL 61 at 6:27AM CDT 07/22/14
Don't feel bad guys, I've been asking that glacier melting question to all my "green" friends for years to no avail. I'm sure all the fossil fuel use does not do the climate any good, I'm all on board with that. Surely one of those 97 percent of scientists can answer this question and shut all of us simpletons up.
Posted by TOM DRAPER at 7:30PM CDT 07/22/14
Again how times change. Going to school in the 70"s we were told by scientist that the world was returning to the ice age because the sun was burning itself out. Al Gore starts a global warming fad and all the "experts" jump in for the ride. Why is the almighty USDA not in on this, all we need to clear the air is one of their corrupt "reports" or "estimates" to guide everyone in the right direction like their markets they control.
Posted by DAVID/KEVIN GRUENHAGEN at 11:18PM CDT 07/22/14
I have posted these statistics before, but here they are again regarding the subject of "global cooling" predictions 40 years ago--A survey of the scientific literature has found that between 1965 and 1979, 44 scientific papers predicted warming, 20 were neutral and just 7 predicted cooling. So while predictions of cooling got more media attention, the majority of scientists were predicting warming even then. Out of 71 papers reviewed, only TEN percent predicted cooling in the future. 44 out of 71--or SIXTY-TWO percent--predicted warming.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 7:34AM CDT 07/23/14
http://www.climatedepot.com/2014/07/17/the-sun-has-gone-quietsolar-cycle-24-continues-to-rank-as-one-of-the-weakest-cycles-more-than-a-century/
Posted by Brandon Butler at 8:23AM CDT 07/23/14
I'd like to see some statistics posted pertaining to the fraudulent figures that NOAA has been throwing around. Haven't seen too many responses by the usual suspects when someone posts about THAT 900 lbs. gorilla in the corner of the room.
Posted by Brandon Butler at 8:25AM CDT 07/23/14
Mr. Butler--are you referring to the temperature trends that NOAA has been cataloguing and reporting on? That topic was brought up four years ago in the so-called "Climategate" controversy, and a review of the research and data scientists were working with found no manipulation of the numbers. And regarding the solar cycle--yes, the solar cycle is less at this time, which would have brought on an overall cooler trend in temperatures, but has not. We continue to see global temperatures increase as highlighted in the climate reports.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 9:02AM CDT 07/23/14
Thanks all for comments. This blog item is closed. We'll have new items for discussion in the near future.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 9:56AM CDT 07/23/14
 

Thursday 07/17/14

Canada Crops Benefit From Warmer Weather
The region has turned warmer at the end of this week, after a recent spell of fairly cool conditions. It has also been drier, which is a favorable turn after June's wet and cold weather. The question then becomes how long can this drier, warmer weather last?[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 12:48PM CDT 07/17/14 by Joel Burgio | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Tuesday 07/15/14

El Nino No Cure For California Drought
One season's worth of rain will be insufficient for the third-worst drought on record in California.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:23AM CDT 07/15/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
As California runs out of water in the next 2 years they can be assured that big oil will be able to keep up with their fossil fuel needs so gasoline prices will not rise and the amount of greenhouse gasses they expel will not diminish, proving to the world that we can continue the "American way" despite climate change.
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 5:53AM CDT 07/17/14
 

Monday 07/14/14

No Heat Threat Yet
Forecast charts do not show a sudden switch from very cool to very hot in the Corn Belt during the next couple weeks.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 2:48PM CDT 07/14/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (4)
Bryce, I know it is a little early, but here in Minnesota, we are wondering if we will get enough heat to get the crop to maturity. We planted most of the crop 3 weeks later than a May 1 normal. We are 100-130 GDU' s behind corn planted May 17 to the 22nd. That is about 6 days behind. Only 9.5 GDU's yesterday and probably not much more today. So we are loosing ground on heat to move the crop along. Do you see any probability of a stretch of above normal temps in August for us to catch up some. A few tassels here and there are starting to show up but full blown pollination is still a week to 10 days away.
Posted by MARK & LEA NOWAK at 7:43AM CDT 07/15/14
Mark, thanks for the question. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts offer above normal temperatures for the Upper Midwest--more favorable for crop progress.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 8:01AM CDT 07/15/14
Rockford, IL TV station is forecasting some possible frost in areas this week. Do you have any idea what model they are looking at?
Posted by Peter Erdmann at 9:50AM CDT 07/15/14
Forecast models all run through different iterations in their productions. Considering the very cool circumstances, it would not be a surprise that one of those iterations/presentations had frost as a possibility.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 5:19AM CDT 07/18/14
 

Thursday 07/10/14

Sunshine, Dry Weather Favors Crops
The cool, damp weather of June has been replaced by a drier, warmer weather pattern so far during July. Dry weather stays with us for the time being but some chilly weather will invade eastern areas by early next week.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:44AM CDT 07/10/14 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 07/09/14

El Nino Explained
A thorough review of what El Nino is--and is not--all about from the IRI group.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:33AM CDT 07/09/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
its about time u said something that made sense Bryce, "a normal part of earths climate"
Posted by Mark Knobloch at 9:58PM CDT 07/09/14
Amen ! Mark
Posted by GWL 61 at 11:58AM CDT 07/10/14
 

Monday 07/07/14

Wheat Weather has Global Focus
Drought problems for this year's wheat crop appear to be confined to the U.S. Southern Plains.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:57AM CDT 07/07/14 by Bryce Anderson | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 07/03/14

Favorable Soybean Weather Forecast for July
Soybean crop development during July looks to benefit from mild weather and periodic rainfall.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:47AM CDT 07/03/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
Bryce, I recently saw an article on one of the news shows that implied that the Antarctic ice flows where on record schedule this year. Seems that we are gaining so much ice in the Antarctic that we have begun to make the artic ice of no importance. Your comments on the improvement on ice flows of the world? Or, will we sweep this under the rug. Sorry bout that. I know you have your beliefs (how ever erred they are). The weather seems to be going back to the early 60s, or late 50s. That would indicate a cycle pattern.
Posted by BD, NE LA. at 8:39PM CDT 07/03/14
BD, NE LA More ice of artic could hint a cooler summer, which is good for grain yields. We can only guess for this season.
Posted by Bill Liu at 1:19AM CDT 07/08/14
 

Wednesday 07/02/14

Warmer and Drier Weather Returns For a Time to W. Canada
An improving weather outlook for western Canada's cropland is expected during the next week as warming temperatures and less rainfall are in the forecast.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:24PM CDT 07/02/14 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Tuesday 07/01/14

Favorable July Corn Forecast
Corn Belt weather trends point to mild weather and continued periodic rains during July. This could support potential record corn yields.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 6:57AM CDT 07/01/14 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Some weather observations from South Central Minnesota. We normally have 3 days in the 90's during June. This year there was none. In a normal growing season we have 13 days in the 90's. We are fast approaching the warmest days of the year and my DTN "local forecast" does not predict any 90 degree days thru July 16th. I'll have to do some local research and see if we ever went an entire growing season without a 90 degree day. But thanks to my DTN "on farm weather station", I read the GDU's accumulated every day. I started planting corn on May 17th. Normally by that date we have accumulated 170 GDU's from a May 1st start date. As of June 30 (yesterday) we have accumulated 820 GDU's on ournorth farm. Normal for this date is 868. So we are only 48 GDU's behind normal. We average about 20 per day at this time of the growing season. So despite nearly a 3 week late start to planting, we are only a little over 2 days behind on growth. Based upon corn leaf count, with normal weather for the next 3 weeks, we should start seeing tassel in about 18 days- nearly right on schedule. I recorded 10.78 inches of rain in June, an all time record for Nowak Farms for the 41 years of farming. I measured my drowned out spots and they amount to 2% of planted acres. Some in the area have more and some just, like us, under 3%. With/if ElNino treats us to a good non stressful rest of growing season, we can make up some of the lost acres with good yields on the remaining acres. Although I must say variability on corn plant health varies tremendously from field to field in the area due probably to compaction and or loss of nitrogen. One noticeable trend is that some of the best looking crop is on last years prevent plant acres that were treated with a cover crops. The tillage radish fields seem to be doing the best, especially if they were not tilled last Fall. Thanks Bryce, you and your staff do a great job keeping us informed on weather and climate.
Posted by MARK & LEA NOWAK at 8:48AM CDT 07/01/14
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Recent Blog Posts
  • General Mills Climate Change Policy
  • Southwest Water Loss Is Incredible
  • Climate Trends And Farmer Questions
  • Canadian Crops Benefit From Warmer, Drier Weather
  • Mostly Favorable August Rain Forecast
  • 2013 State Of The Climate Report
  • Canada Crops Benefit From Warmer Weather
  • El Nino No Cure For California Drought
  • No Heat Threat Yet
  • Sunshine, Dry Weather Favors Crops
  • El Nino Explained
  • Wheat Weather has Global Focus
  • Favorable Soybean Weather Forecast for July
  • Warmer and Drier Weather Returns For a Time to W. Canada
  • Favorable July Corn Forecast
  • May Climate Report
  • Too Much Rain and Lack of Warmth Slow W. Canada Crop Development
  • El Nino By A Different Name Maybe
  • Excessive Rains and Cool Weather Slows W. Canada Crop Development
  • The Message In The Twin Tornadoes