Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

Friday 02/05/16

More On El Nino-La Nina Transition
A look at Pacific trends in the past 65 years shows that an El Nino-to-La Nina switch sheds more light on how the ocean may evolve the rest of this year.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:25AM CST 02/05/16 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (3)
Great article, it has some real historical observations rather some other shallow articles that have been written in some other agriculture news media. Keep us posted with information that has actual data then some of the modern headline info that does little to help one make informative observations. Too much rehashed info floating around with no real background for a reader to make informative choices or understanding of what is actually transpiring. These events have a direct impact on the choices we as producers must make or prepare us to come to terms that are understanding of the situation is wrong and we need to make changes and go in a different direction
Posted by Unknown at 12:59PM CST 02/05/16
Are these warmer ocean currents orringinating from the ocean floor, or a change in ocean currents being mixes up or volcanic activity or what?
Posted by Leigh Allossery at 11:40AM CST 02/09/16
The warmer ocean currents are due to ocean-atmosphere intereaction. From a NOAA frequently-asked-question response to the question "Why does El Nino occur?"--"El Nino results from interaction between the surface layers of the ocean and the overlying atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. It is the internal dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system that determine the onset and termination of El Nino events. The physical processes are complicated, but they involve unstable air-sea interaction and planetary scale oceanic waves. The system oscillates between warm (El Nino) to neutral (or cold) conditions with a natural periodicity of roughly 3-4 years. External forcing from volcanic eruptions (submarine or terrestial) have no connnection with El Nino. Nor do sunspots as far as we know."
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 3:07PM CST 02/09/16
 

Thursday 02/04/16

Temperature Gyrations Ahead for W. Canada
Cold weather is likely to pay a visit to eastern areas at times during the next week, but the west may turn unseasonably mild.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:13AM CST 02/04/16 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 02/03/16

El Nino Remains Strong
This El Nino is still energetic, despite Pacific temperatures receding from their highs.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:56PM CST 02/03/16 by Mike Palmerino | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
I remember those two previous weather events quite well The 83 event along with the PIK program and a flash drought while the 98 event with high carryovers, LDP's and some Asian flu (Japan?) two very different outcomes that set the tone in Ag for several years. My opinion that this year will have influences for the next few years as well. At present we high stocks to use , a debacle in the oil/ethanol arena and where RFS will be at in 5 years. If the grind in ethanol slows down 5 to 6% because of profitability we had better do the math, USDA has penciled in a 5.2 billion bushels use of corn for ethanol thus adding those bushels to our carry out. Here is the problem we have weak profitability in ethanol with lots of new bins, and bags full of corn waiting for some kind of price spike yes we need at least a threat of a heat streak but not too long otherwise our favorite new customer will have indigestion on corn that is too expensive to the price of oil. I will anxiously be looking forward to your comments on any clues that may have been learned from watching the last 2 El Nino's to help in decision making out here in the corn belt, there is a lot riding on weather between now and the end of August
Posted by Unknown at 7:28PM CST 02/03/16
 

Friday 01/29/16

Major Change In Western U.S. Snow Cover
El Nino-enhanced snowfall has brought some big, positive changes in western U.S. water supply potential.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 2:27PM CST 01/29/16 by Bryce Anderson | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 01/28/16

Roller Coaster Temperatures for W. Canada
Current mild weather covering Western Canada will come to an end during next week as arctic air makes a return.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:43AM CST 01/28/16 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 01/25/16

Greater Chance For La Nina
La Nina by late summer suggests drier conditions for filling corn and soybeans.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:28AM CST 01/25/16 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Bullish news has to be proven but bearish news is speculated to bad ag commodities are not traded fairly a lot of bearish news is used multiple times.
Posted by andrew mohlman at 5:39PM CST 01/25/16
 

Friday 01/22/16

Midsummer Crop Weather Projection
As El Nino weakens, more typical summer temperatures are more likely for the 2016 growing season.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:59AM CST 01/22/16 by Bryce Anderson | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 01/21/16

El Nino's Impact Returns to Western Canada
Our recent spell of bitter cold weather is coming to a close as a return of milder air originating from the Pacific Ocean sends temperatures upward.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:01AM CST 01/21/16 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 01/15/16

Possible Stress for South Brazil Soy
A change in Brazil's rain focus from south to north could lead to late-summer stress in the southern Brazil soybean crop.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 3:39PM CST 01/15/16 by Bryce Anderson | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 01/14/16

Arctic Cold to Ease for W. Canada Next Week
A one-week siege of bitter cold across Western Canada will be followed by moderation later this month.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 12:55PM CST 01/14/16 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 01/11/16

Brazil Rainfall Improves
Rainfall patterns have finally switched to more-frequent happenings in the northern half of Brazil's soybean belt.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:38PM CST 01/11/16 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (5)
I must be getting bogus reports down there that say it hasn't rained in two weeks or more that map don't March your numbers main crop areas look dryer than you stated
Posted by andrew mohlman at 12:58PM CST 01/12/16
Things certainly remain drier in northeastern Brazil. That is a typical response to El Nino. However, northeastern Brazil is a minor contributor to the Brazil soybean crop total.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 5:21AM CST 01/13/16
A map showing crop area would be nice with your rain map.
Posted by andrew mohlman at 12:29PM CST 01/13/16
Here is a reference map. Mato Grosso produces 30 percent of the Brazil soybean crop. http://goo.gl/1hsFGY
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 5:05AM CST 01/14/16
Also, a promotion note for the Market Weather videos that I produce every day--that video features a daily look at Brazil satellite imagery and forecast rainfall, along with reports of what's happened on rain recently. Mato Grosso is highlighted every day. Check those out and they should help in getting acquainted with the geography of the Brazil soybean belt as well.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 7:58AM CST 01/14/16
 

Thursday 01/07/16

High Latitude Blocking Brings the Big Chill to W. Canada
High latitude blocking is likely to return next week and bitter cold arctic air will affect Western Canada.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:39AM CST 01/07/16 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 01/04/16

El Nino Looms Over 2016 Crop Season
The strongest El Nino since 1997 is likely to be around until at least early summer.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:33AM CST 01/04/16 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (3)
It's stands to reason that warmer water means more evaporation. It has to come down somewhere. The earths climate always has been changing. The mid east once was a lush garden. It turned into a desert long before we started to make electricity out of coal. The US has greatly cleaned up our pollution, give us some credit. Our coal fired power plants scrub everything but CO2 and water out of what they emit. Our farms and forests take more CO2 out of the air than we put into it.
Posted by FRANK FULWIDER at 1:51PM CST 01/05/16
The "climate is always changing" phrase deserves some context in view of what is happening with the atmosphere. The American Meteorological Society's opening paragraph on the topic of "climate change" summarizes the science very well. Here it is: "As a public and policy issue, climate change boils down to four overarching issues: 1) climate is changing; 2) people are causing climate to change; 3) the societal consequences of climate change are highly uncertain but include the potential for serious impacts; and 4) there are numerous policy options for climate change risk management, most of which are well characterized (i.e., have known strengths and weaknesses). These four conclusions are based on comprehensive assessment of scientific understanding and each is the result of multiple independent lines of evidence."
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 7:56AM CST 01/06/16
The full AMS statement on climate change is at this link: https://goo.gl/tTfyAb
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 8:05AM CST 01/06/16
 

Thursday 12/31/15

El Nino Makes a Difference in West
Heavy precipitation during fall and winter is making a positive change in drought conditions over the western U.S.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 2:38PM CST 12/31/15 by Bryce Anderson | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Meanwhile back East, Jan 1, 2016, took a picture of a cherry tree in near full bloom.
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 6:25PM CST 01/01/16
 

Wednesday 12/30/15

El Nino Regains Control of W. Canada Weather
The strong El Nino across the tropical Pacific Ocean will take back control of the weather patterns across Canada and end the period of cold conditions.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:09AM CST 12/30/15 by Doug Webster | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
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