South America Calling
Alastair Stewart South America Correspondent

Tuesday 12/10/13

Brazil Gov't Forecasts Record Soy Crop

Brazil's Agriculture Ministry Tuesday predicted the 2013-14 soybean crop would reach a record 90.0 million metric tons.

It raised its forecast from a range of 87.9 mmt to 90.2 mmt last month as the crop continues to develop well across Brazil's grain belt.

There appears to be a growing consensus that the crop will be around 90 mmt. Last week, Agroconsult, a Brazil-based analytics firm, raised its number to 90.1 mmt, while a week before AgRural, a local consultancy, upped its number to 89.4 mmt.

If the government figure is confirmed, production will be 8.5 mmt higher than the 81.5 mmt produced last season.

Farmers across Brazil are in a high state of alert over attacks by the corn earworm, Helicoverpa amigera, said the ministry's report. The threat of the pest has prompted much greater investment in chemicals this year, it added.

Corn production was pegged at 78.8 mmt, in line with the 78.5 mmt to 79.8 mmt forecast last month and 2.7% down on the year before.

Summer crop output is pegged 6.4% lower at 32.6 mmt.

Planted starting in August, the crop is developing well in Parana, Santa Catarina, Minas Gerais and Goias, the main producing areas. Production will only be lower because of a 5.9% fall in planted area, caused by tight corn margins..

The overall corn number may end up lower than the ministry is predicting, however, as they are using last year's figures to estimate second crop corn production when most expect second-crop area to decline.

The government raised the wheat forecast from 4.8 mmt to 5.4 mmt due to higher-than-expected yields in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost state. A series of frosts significantly reduced production this year in Parana, traditionally Brazil's No. 1 wheat state.

(ES)

Posted at 8:14AM CST 12/10/13 by Alastair Stewart
Post a Blog Comment:
Your Comment:
DTN reserves the right to delete comments posted to any of our blogs and forums, for reasons including profanity, libel, irrelevant personal attacks and advertisements.
Blog Home Pages
September  2014
S M T W T F S
   1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30            
Subscribe to South America Calling RSS
Recent Blog Posts
  • Brazil Congress Votes On Greater Trucker Flexibility
  • Brazil's Rising Soy Costs
  • For Brazil, Fertilizer Self-Sufficiency Remains a Distant Dream
  • Brazilian Cotton Area to Slide on Prices
  • Brazil's Industry Raises Soybean Export View Amid High Premiums
  • Brazil Commission to Discuss Second-Crop Soy Ban
  • Brazil's SLC Agricola Slows Expansion, Tightens Belts
  • Argentina to Plant Less Corn, Maintain Soy
  • Brazil's Soybean Market Firm
  • Brazilian Soybean Exports Slip in June
  • Argentine Soy Farmers in a Tough Spot
  • Brazil Cuts Tariffs on Wheat Imports
  • Rains Slow Brazil's Mato Grosso Corn Harvest
  • Brazilian Non-GM Soy Premiums Ebb
  • Argentine Debt Default and Farmers
  • Corn Ethanol and Brazil
  • Soybeans Leads Brazilian Exports in 2014
  • Argentine Biodiesel Exports to Recover in 2014
  • Brazil's Ag Ministry Raises Corn, Wheat View
  • Brazil to Raise Biofuel Percentage in Diesel