South America Calling
Alastair Stewart South America Correspondent

Thursday 01/17/13

Favorable Weather Conditions Across Grain Belt Seen Boosting Soy

SAO PAULO, Brazil (DTN) -- Agroconsult on Thursday became the first major forecaster to peg Brazilian soybean output at 84 million metric tons (mmt), breaking the consensus that the 2012-13 crop would come in between 80 mmt and 83 mmt.

It raised its outlook for the 2012-13 crop by 900,000 metric tons to 84.0 mmt in light of the highly favorable weather conditions across the grain belt over the past month.

As such, output will be 29% higher than last year and considerably outstrip the previous record of 75 mmt.

The Agroconsult announcement is the latest in a series of upward estimate adjustments in light of the abundant rain and the crop's healthy aspect. Last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture upped its Brazil soy crop figure by 1.5 mmt to 82.5 mmt.

Crops in the south and in Sao Paulo state were greatly aided by 'regular rainfall,' said the consultancy in a release.

In Mato Grosso, the No. 1 soybean state, crops are looking good and early-harvest yields of 45 to 48 bushels per acre point to an excellent crop, it said.

In the south of Mato Grosso do Sul, the No. 5 state, irregular precipitation has hurt short-cycle beans, which are harvested first, but the longer-cycle beans are in good shape.

Agroconsult also raised its forecast for 2012-13 corn, by 3.7 mmt to 74.7 mmt.

The summer crop is forecast at 37.2 mmt and is being aided by the abundant southern rains, it said.

However, a 20-day dry spell in October did hurt corn in Goias Minas Gerais, as well as the northeast. This did not seem to greatly damage the corn crop, although continued monitoring is necessary, the consultancy added.


Posted at 11:08AM CST 01/17/13 by Alastair Stewart
Comments (2)
Let's see if Argentina can be that lucky, seems not for the once again dry spell.
Posted by Bill Liu at 10:33AM CST 01/19/13
La Nina persistence expect the bulls back riding the weather fundamentals
Posted by G C at 7:47PM CST 01/23/13
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