Market Matters Blog
Katie Micik DTN Markets Editor

Tuesday 01/22/13

Early Reports Preferred, If At All

Sometimes internet polls are revealing. And sometimes they just confirm what you already suspect. Here at DTN, we like our poll function. While we know internet polls aren't statistically sound, but it helps us gather feedback about what our reader think about different issues.

Well, the latest results of our DTN 360 Poll shows that 41% of farmers would prefer it if USDA continued releasing reports at 7:30 a.m. That's not surprising; after all, who likes change? After nearly years of early morning report releases, it's going to take some adjusting to USDA's 11 a.m. CST release.

Only 19% of survey respondents favored the new report time, and only 4% preferred 2 p.m.

What I like about this survey is we gave other options: "USDA should stop issuing reports," which received 20% of all votes, and "I don't care," which got 15%.

I’m not surprised by those results. DTN's Darin Newsom is an outspoken critic of USDA, and believes the markets give a more accurate and up-to-date picture of grain supplies.

And for those that don't care about what time the report is released: you've got the right attitude. If I was a trader and had to twiddle my thumbs all morning waiting for a report, I'd be vexed by the change, sure. But I'd also know that when the report is released isn't fractionally as important as what the report says and what it means for the market.

We've got another market related poll question up for voting right now: How much of your 2013 corn crop do you have priced or hedged? You can vote through the DTN 360 Poll on the right hand side of your DTN online subscription or leave a comment below. I'm looking forward to your responses.

Posted at 10:54AM CST 01/22/13 by Katie Micik
Comments (7)
Katie, I have 0 bu. of 2013 corn sold.Our local new crop corn price is 5.46, not much to get excited about.I do have new beans sold above 13.00 so right now it is not hard to do the math.Net income right now would be beans around 450.00 to corn 380.00 at normal yields for us.I do have the nitrogen and potash needs bought for corn so I do know my cost there. Chemicals and fuel cost I don't have but bean inputs should be about one third of corn.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 8:13AM CST 01/23/13
Unpriced on 2013 corn. ADM Decatur's Jan. 14 corn was 5.75 yesterday.
Posted by Roger Cooper at 8:07AM CST 01/24/13
That's not surprising. Have either of you done any hedging with futures?
Posted by KATIE MICIK at 9:08AM CST 01/24/13
Throwing a dart at 6:00 am at a clock would be fun.
Posted by Bonnie Dukowitz at 6:00PM CST 01/24/13
Why can't we halt trading for 5-10 minutes following a report to allow for digestion ?
Posted by james earl at 6:59PM CST 01/24/13
USDA can't force a trading halt on its own. The exchanges trading those grains would need to agree to halt trading or Congress would have to pass a law. The reason why that's unlikely is that there's bound to be a market somewhere else in the world that will trade a similar commodity during that time. With the market trend towards 24-7, it's increasingly difficult to stop it.
Posted by KATIE MICIK at 3:33PM CST 01/25/13
I am 26 and 2012 was my first season as a farmer. I have to give the USDA a WOW at the huge swings in their reports. I have 25% of 2013 sold at $6.65 and have not priced any beans yet and nothing hedged as I do not fully understand it yet. My statement would be that the USDA should provide more accurate information or none at all. I beleive the Information age of I-phones, I-pads, and sites such as DTN and others provide more accurate information and do not creat a false market such as some of the reports released this year. If I am wrong please forgive me as I am learning at a first generation farmer pace.
Posted by Russell Hedrick at 3:06PM CST 01/27/13
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