Market Matters Blog
Katie Micik DTN Markets Editor

Tuesday 12/04/12

Informa Trims South America Production Estimates

Informa Economics today trimmed Argentina's soybean production estimate by 1.1 million metric tons, citing a 300,000 hectare reduction in expected plantings, pegging production at 58.4 mmt. Brazil's forecasted to produce 81.4 mmt, a 150,000 mt increase from the prior month because of a 50,000 hectare increase in planted acreage.

And the delays in getting soybeans planted, and therefore harvested, in Brazil's Goias and Bahia provinces means 400,000 fewer hectares will be planted to into Brazil's Safrina crop, the second crop of corn grown in Brazil's more tropical regions. Informa estimates Brazil's total corn production at 66.2 mmt, 600,000 mmt less than last month's estimate. In November, USDA estimated 70 mmt of Brazilian corn production.

In Argentina, the cuts to the corn crop are even larger. Informa trimmed 1 mmt off its forecast as plantings have been running about a week behind average and are only 63% complete as of Nov. 29. Production is estimated to be 27 mmt. Informa shaved 100,000 hectares from expected planted acreage and trimmed yield forecasts. Last month, USDA estimated Argentina would product 28 mmt

"The changes in Brazil soybean production due to increased acreage isn’t overly surprising given the continued weather problems in parts of southern Brazil (Rio Grande du Sol I think). Likewise, reductions in Argentine production of both corn and soybeans due to weather should be expected," DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom said.

"The interesting thing is that the net result is a reduction in South American production at a time when there is no margin for error in global supplies. Also, these crops won’t likely be available until mid-March at the earliest keeping the global supply and demand situation tight."

And on the wheat front, Informa notes that Argentina's wheat production is expected to be 11.5 mmt, down 500,000 mt from last month. That's 4.5 mmt less than what Argentina grew last year and it's due to a 22% reduction in seeded area and a slight reduction in expected yields.

"Wheat news looks to be a bit bearish with a larger crop in China offsetting possible losses in Argentina," Newsom said. China's wheat production is estimated at 120.6 mmt, 2.6 mmt larger than Informa's last forecast.

The next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates will be released by USDA Tuesday, Dec. 11 at 7:30 a.m. CT.

Posted at 11:22AM CST 12/04/12 by Katie Micik
Post a Blog Comment:
Your Comment:
DTN reserves the right to delete comments posted to any of our blogs and forums, for reasons including profanity, libel, irrelevant personal attacks and advertisements.
Blog Home Pages
April  2014
S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30         
Subscribe to Market Matters Blog RSS
Recent Blog Posts
  • Railroad Delays Interrupt Field Work
  • Regulators Are People, Too
  • Observations of a Weary Traveler
  • Baseball Season Opens, But River, Head of Lakes Grain Season Still on Break
  • Overbooked China Diverts Shipments to the U.S.
  • Parts of Ag Confidence Index Show Correlation to Corn Prices
  • Ag Confidence Index Foreshadows Things to Come
  • Rail Service Slow to Recover
  • CME Shifts to Variable Daily Limits
  • Intuitive, with the Potential for Confusion
  • Mom, the Mini-Wheats!
  • Crimea River: Rumblings of War in the Grain Markets
  • One Cancellation Down, How Many More to Come?
  • Can Crop Insurance Guarantees Sway Acreage?
  • PED Virus Could Trim Corn Consumption
  • Barge, Rail Logistics Still Plagued By Snow, Ice
  • Prepare for a Data, Demographic Deluge
  • Let the Acreage Debate Begin
  • Mother Nature Still Affecting River, Rail Logistics
  • Logistics Still a Mess on Rivers, U.S. and Canadian Rails