Market Matters Blog
Katie Micik DTN Markets Editor

Wednesday 04/30/14

Twitter Pictures Raise Concerns about HRW Wheat Supplies
As we watch the HRW Wheat Tour unfold on Twitter, DTN analysts discuss the possibility of short-supply situation.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 3:49PM CDT 04/30/14 by Katie Micik | Post a Comment
Comments (3)
Ukraine is a much bigger player in the World corn market than the wheat market. They export something like 60% of their corn production and about 45% of their wheat. The corn exports from this country are about 17% of the Worlds imports while wheat is around 7%. A 10% drop in Ukrainian corn production could net a 47 million bushel increase in US Exports and the same drop in wheat production might net a 17 million bushel US export increase if US exports maintain the current ratio in the World market. One might expect a lower increase than those projected here because of transportation cost to Ukraineâ?™s customers. From a balance sheet point of view, the dropping Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRWW production expectation seems to be a much bigger deal than possible increase in exports do to Ukraine's production and/or political problems. A look at USDA's HRWW balance sheet, for 2014-15, may not be found until July WASDE report. Should HRWW total use come in around 835 million bushels for the 2014-15 marketing year and a 15% ending stocks to use ratio (125 million bushel HRWW ending stocks) be tight enough to hold "high" prices than production would need to be 760 million bushels or less for price firmness to continue. Kansas might produces around 38% of HRWW production. A Kansas HRWW production, from this WAG (wild ass guess), under 290 million bushels should keep volatility in the Kansas Wheat market. Something over 320 might see price declines through harvest. A "HOT" Kansas market might spill into the Chicago wheat market resulting in "wider" basis for the Soft Red Winter Wheat of the eastern part of the Country. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 10:21AM CDT 05/01/14
we (my wife and I)have travelled the winter wheat producing states every april for the past 18 years. never before we have ever seen such a dismal crop.It is at least 4 weeks behind normal and the most winterkilled during this time frame.I think that it is about time for the bears in Chicogo went for a drive and quit lisenning to tweets created amunst themselves
Posted by warren muller at 12:46PM CDT 05/01/14
Soft red wheat is no better.Lots of it is being killed to plant another crop.Have heard of adjusters calling for 20 bu. yields in 100 bu. wheat areas.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 5:24PM CDT 05/08/14
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