Market Matters Blog
Katie Micik DTN Markets Editor

Tuesday 07/22/14

Imaginary Numbers
DTN Market Editor Katie Micik offered me the opportunity to respond to her recent piece about USDA's soybean residual use category on the supply/demand report.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 6:45AM CDT 07/22/14 by Darin Newsom | Post a Comment
Comments (10)
Gee, what a spoil-sport you are! How could specs have fun in the market without monthly reports to play with!
Posted by LeeFarms at 7:25AM CDT 07/22/14
Good morning. I agree. After all, that's what these reports were initially intended to do, right?
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 7:48AM CDT 07/22/14
The real question is if the stocks do not exist, yet they are assumed to have existed before, then what of the farmer who "supposedly" produced said soybean. Is he or she then but a variable with the reality of their production(or lack thereof)neither confirmed nor believed. In other words Is this real life? Stephen
Posted by Unknown at 3:27PM CDT 07/22/14
Follow up comment If I assume that I have made money on the bean. But I spend it on something(old car maybe). I get to the end of the year and the money doesn't exist. Does the IRS have a negative residual for income Concerned Stephen Ellis
Posted by Unknown at 3:35PM CDT 07/22/14
Thought provoking questions Stephen. There is no such thing as a reality of production to be confirmed or believed when it comes to soybeans. That was one of the key points I took from Katie's article. So no, it is not real life. Is it tradeable information? Yes, and that is was keeps the system in place. As for your second comment, what I've heard from customers following the sell-off in grains is that the IRS better have an accounting for a negative residual income. Just kidding. As I said in the piece, it would be nice if I could do my books the way USDA is allowed. As always, thank you for your your comments.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 4:09PM CDT 07/22/14
I do know some numbers of reality,95 degrees and no rain since the 25th 0f June.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 4:41PM CDT 07/22/14
Thank you for your comment Raymond. I agree, that is reality.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 6:52PM CDT 07/22/14
no rain here since june 27th only irrigation making grain what a waste not likley to get money back or the water so under valued it is sad. traders knowlege is not there
Posted by andrew mohlman at 8:40AM CDT 07/23/14
are you crazy? how dare you question the usda and nass. they may put a hit on you darin there are some decent crops in se nd but right across the road from them will be a field that is 50% gone. you can then add in the fact that even the decent looking fields are 2 weeks behind, uneven and short. that doesn't get us close to a normal crop. we have decent moisture but the next 2 weeks call for below normal temps and below normal precip. not really a forecast to add bushels.
Posted by harlan deike at 9:48AM CDT 07/23/14
Only in the good 'ol USA could taxes be spent on such a useful service as "voodoo statistics"! We are so passive!
Posted by Roger Cooper at 12:12PM CDT 07/23/14
 

Friday 07/18/14

Grain Shippers Worry Upcoming Harvest Will Put Railroads Further Behind
Deliveries of past-due rail cars are still lagging in parts of the U.S. and Canada, and grain shippers worry the upcoming harvest will put railroads even further behind schedule.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 12:54PM CDT 07/18/14 by Mary Kennedy | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 07/16/14

Winning at the Waiting Game? Not in Ag Commodities
A recent Wall Street Journal article outlined how investors can win by waiting in commodities. It's a viable strategy in some markets, but risky in most ag markets now.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 12:59PM CDT 07/16/14 by Katie Micik | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
nobody knows what the future will bring mother nature is in control in ag no matter what humans wish
Posted by andrew mohlman at 8:39AM CDT 07/17/14
 

Friday 07/11/14

Eight Locks and Dams Still Closed; St. Louis Rises Above Flood Stage
Three locks in Minneapolis have reopened, but eight locks farther downstream are still closed to barge traffic.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 4:51PM CDT 07/11/14 by Mary Kennedy | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 07/03/14

Informa Pegs Corn Yield at 165 BPA, Soybeans at 44.5 BPA
Private analytical firm Informa Economics said U.S. farmers have the potential to produce a 13.7 billion bushel corn crop and a 3.7 bb soybean crop this year.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:09AM CDT 07/03/14 by Katie Micik | Post a Comment
Comments (8)
Informa and Hultman don't want to see anything that might be bullish. Like too much rain makes poor stands, poor population, disease , vomitoxin , low test weight and poor quality in corn and wheat. Last winter took its toll on winter wheat. Persistent rains have raised the levels of vom 20 percent in southern areas in wheat. Corn and soybeans were planted one month late and El Nino weather pattern points to colder than normal for the next 90 days and to a frost in September.
Posted by ALVIN FERGUSON FERGUSON at 9:10AM CDT 07/04/14
We can only hope for a early frost in central Mn, crops are a disaster, thousands of acres not planted, every low area gone from lakes in the fields, the USDA markets are down thanks to the corrupt reports from that United States Dictatorship of Agriculture. How times change when in 2012 this area made up for numerous states during the drought according to the USDA, now somehow this area does not count in their lies and reports. There was another comment made by another DTN subscriber saying high school kids are doing the numbers, I wish they were, as they would be more honest than the highly trained scam artists that now fudge false and dishonest reports, market changing "estimates" and surprises. What a joke the CBOT has become.
Posted by DAVID/KEVIN GRUENHAGEN at 8:18PM CDT 07/06/14
how would traders make money if they did not manipulate the market. Never say they were wrong always right they all run to the same door.farmers know truth.hold it back from thieves.it will be too late when truth told.china needs cheaper grains? traders threat too americas security.wasting are resources always plenty not real. importing beans? would hate to pay a farmer when he is right that is messed up.the under pricing needs to stop.addicted to stealing from ranchers or farmers sad state.
Posted by andrew mohlman at 8:46AM CDT 07/07/14
I love today's Bloomberg quote noting that an "avalanche" of grain will be coming to harvest this fall. I think that the avalanche may occur slightly before harvest as producers ship out the last inventory of the 2013 crop, probably beginning in August. I believe that there is still a lot of 2013 crop stored. Due to the old crop inventory, and the early planted 2014 crop, it may be that harvest lows will be put in early, and markets may rise throughout the fall and into early winter.
Posted by James Zeeb at 12:45PM CDT 07/07/14
looks real good from manson iowa to alma Kansas. would have to have lot of bad weather to hurt it
Posted by Matt & Cindy Bauer at 7:28AM CDT 07/08/14
I like the word POTENTIAL they all use.Any seed company will tell you their seed has the POTENTIAL to produce record yields when it is still in the bag.Well it has to go along way with all elements being near perfect to produce record yields.I don't know how Informa or anyone else can know what the crops are like without driving coast to coast and looking.I have seen some very poor crops in northeast Ohio this week.Small beans and yellow uneven corn.There are some very nice crops too always are,but USDA needs to figure in all the unplanted acres also.On a return trip from Texas this weekend alot of crops under water along the Mississippi and corn was no bigger in Ill. than here in Mi.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 12:00PM CDT 07/08/14
just wanted to let Informa know our POTENTIAL record yields were fading fast.With no rain for almost a month and cold temps, crops have come to a stand still.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 6:50AM CDT 07/16/14
shh raymond it is always a record would like it cheap on farmers backs
Posted by andrew mohlman at 8:39AM CDT 07/18/14
 

Tuesday 07/01/14

Reports Revive Old Questions
Monday's reports resurrected questions about the corn and soybean supply and demand tables that USDA will have to answer in its next WASDE report on July 11.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 4:18PM CDT 07/01/14 by Katie Micik | Post a Comment
Comments (4)
The U.S.D.A. are kinda like our weathermen!!! It might rain and it might not.They don"t know whats out there they just go with what the market will use.Don't tell me it takes 8 months to know what last harvest yields were,not in this day and age.You can figure that right off crop insurance.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 4:50PM CDT 07/01/14
I think they have found a few senseless high school kids to dream up these reports, read what they came up with for the crop progress for North Dakota vs. Iowa, really there is more silking corn in ND, same amount of flowering soybeans. I can't hardly find corn that will be knee high by the 4th of July up here
Posted by JAMIE KOUBA at 1:22AM CDT 07/02/14
Time will tell, but the increase in ddg exports and the removal of oil from corn prior to or after converting to eoh could explain the 100 million bushels that appears to be over estimated in corn's feed and residual use. The removal of ddgs and oil from ddgs from the feed channels might have been or will be replaced by corn. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 8:53AM CDT 07/02/14
52 degrees this morning, I think they should drop a couple off more "nuke" bombs in the pacific so "EL-nino comes, warm up the water anyway
Posted by Mark Knobloch at 10:01AM CDT 07/02/14
 

Friday 06/27/14

Heavy Rains in the Upper Midwest Hampering Rail and Barge Traffic
Too much rain is causing problems for water shippers and rail shippers.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:55PM CDT 06/27/14 by Mary Kennedy | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 06/23/14

Spring Rains Forced Some Regions to Switch Acres to Soybeans
A rainy spring made planting difficult for some farmers this year, but for the most part, growers stuck with their original planting plans, a recent DTN 360 Poll shows.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:14AM CDT 06/23/14 by Katie Micik | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 
Meal Did What???
Friday's explosive close in July soybean meal was related to the expiration of July meal options and offers an important reminder for all of us.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:45AM CDT 06/23/14 by Todd Hultman | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 06/20/14

Rains Filling Rivers; Shuttle Trains Slowed by Weather
Wet weather is affecting grain transport on land and on water.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 3:12PM CDT 06/20/14 by Mary Kennedy | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 06/18/14

No Hard Landings, More Ag Investment
It's difficult to overstate the importance of the Chinese when it comes to American agriculture. A pair of headlines caught my eye this morning. In the short-term, the Chinese think their economy will keep growing. In the long-term, they see agriculture investment as a key play.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 2:22PM CDT 06/18/14 by Katie Micik | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 06/13/14

Trains Take Longer to Get to Destination and Back
Car placements on BNSF improve but soft tracks hampering speeds.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:42AM CDT 06/13/14 by Mary Kennedy | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 06/06/14

Past-Due Rail Cars Arriving Too Fast For Some Elevators
Barge traffic is not yet restricted, but high water this weekend could slow movement on the rivers.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:51AM CDT 06/06/14 by Mary Kennedy | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 06/04/14

CFTC Confirmations Mark New Beginning for Ag Relationship
The Senate confirmed three nominees to lead the CFTC on Tuesday. Ag's relationship with the commission has been rocky, and only time will tell if changing personnel will improve it.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 12:56PM CDT 06/04/14 by Katie Micik | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 05/30/14

BNSF Finishes Fertilizer; Shippers Still Looking for Grain Cars
Ice on the Great Lakes is down to a little over 1%. BNSF declares mission accomplished on fertilizer shipment goals, but many are still waiting for grain cars.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:41AM CDT 05/30/14 by Mary Kennedy | Post a Comment
Comments (5)
i sure hope some of the shareholders of these rail companies know how they treat their customers
Posted by JeremeyFrost at 1:31PM CDT 05/30/14
I am sure Buffet knows and I am sure he cares as much about that as he is about having all the companies he and his investment firm controls pay that $10.10 he and Obama thinks people should make.
Posted by CRAIG MOORE at 9:02AM CDT 06/02/14
Shareholders invest for profit and Unions look after their members. Enviro's seem to be against everything while expecting the best. Buffet will never have enough. Start constructing pipelines and transmission lines for energy and the general public will benefit. As long as the Pres. has Buffet, the Enviro's and the Unions filling his pockets, this nation will be in a quagmire.
Posted by Bonnie Dukowitz at 6:07AM CDT 06/03/14
Bonnie, I will reiterate the obvious, but there are lots of 3rd world countries with no unions, environmental regulations, stable governments, or even the resources to address the issues you appear to be so irritated by. This quagmire you refer to? Have you left your township or county lately? It would appear by your standards that the Ukraine is an unbridled opportunity these days. Things may be perfect for you since unions still exist and most folks want a clean and sustainable atmosphere but an effort is underway to reverse 200+ years of social and environmental progress and I guess you would be delighted. Bring back the 1700s - when men were men and women were - well, they were just a commodity.! Go to Delhi and breathe the air, then tell me we need that in the USA
Posted by Don Thompson at 7:44AM CDT 06/03/14
How in the world could someone interpret things are perfect for me as they are and have a desire to go back in time. The issues I mention are some of the major hurdles with-in the subject matter of the article and prevents infrastructure expansion and development. Try and get a new bridge built. Try and get a permit to remove minerals in Minnesota, for example. When was the last major RR line constructed across N.D. The Enviro's I refer to might think they could kill a buffalo with a sharp stick and live on wild mushrooms. The R.Roads were constructed when the cars were 40 ft. long and the train length was a fraction of what it is today. They do not have the capacity to handle the tonnage being hauled over them. When was the last lock and dam expansion? Yes, I would be delighted if improvement could be made to our infrastructure, not reversing it.
Posted by Bonnie Dukowitz at 5:54AM CDT 06/04/14
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