Market Matters Blog
Katie Micik DTN Markets Editor

Monday 11/17/14

PNW Shuttles Slowed This Week by Cold, Snow; Casselton Derailment Adds to Slowdown
Cold and snow in parts of the Midwest and Northern Plains slowed rail transportation of agriculture products this past week.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 12:33PM CST 11/17/14 by Mary Kennedy | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
So why do Franken, Klobuchar and Dayton quite patronizing both coast enviros, and get a few pipelines built?
Posted by Bonnie Dukowitz at 6:10PM CST 11/17/14
 

Tuesday 11/11/14

Snow Snarls Harvest
Snow may have complicated harvest in northern regions of the Corn Belt, but it's no repeat of 2009.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:55AM CST 11/11/14 by Katie Micik | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 11/10/14

Weekly Railroad Updates Show Mixed Results in Service Improvements
The large volume of soybeans moving from the upper Midwest for export is causing delays in rail shipments to the U.S. Pacific Northwest.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 2:03PM CST 11/10/14 by Mary Kennedy | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Mary; Would completion of the oil pipeline thru the US allow oil to be shipped using that method, thereby freeing up trains and track for farm products ?
Posted by Dick Doriguzzi at 7:05PM CST 11/11/14
 

Friday 11/07/14

Sudden Closure, Dredging Slow Lower Mississippi Traffic
An unexpected closure on the lower Mississippi River near Memphis during daylight hours and night-time dredging operations in other locations are hampering barge traffic.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 2:58PM CST 11/07/14 by Mary Kennedy | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Wednesday 11/05/14

CFTC Fixes Ag Concerns on Residual Interest
Agriculture industry groups have worked hard to help educate three new CFTC commissioners, and it paid off Monday when CFTC changed a controversial rule that would make it more expensive for farmers to use futures contracts.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:13AM CST 11/05/14 by Katie Micik | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Tuesday 11/04/14

Informa Sees Corn Crop at 14.49 BB, Beans at 3.99 BB
Private analytical firm Informa Economics tweaked its estimates for U.S. corn and soybean production ahead of Monday's USDA report.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 3:25PM CST 11/04/14 by Katie Micik | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 11/03/14

Rail Delays Continue
The second week of mandated railroad reports to the Surface Transportation Board show improved service, but delays continue as pressure from a large harvest increases demand for cars to move grain.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:48AM CST 11/03/14 by Mary Kennedy | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 10/30/14

Daily Price Limits to Shrink Over Weekend
CME Group's price limit for grain and oilseed futures contracts will change on Sunday evening for the Monday, Nov. 3 trading day.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:10AM CDT 10/30/14 by Katie Micik | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 10/27/14

Weekly Rail Updates Disappoint Shippers
Reports railroads submitted to the Surface Transportation Board appear to bolster claims by elevators that the railroads are giving priority to oil shipments over grains. Meanwhile, rail backlogs seem to get a little bigger each week in the upper Midwest as harvest continues.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:21AM CDT 10/27/14 by Mary Kennedy | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Has anyone questioned how much, if any, interest in oil, Warren Buffet has? If I recall correctly, the Northern Pacific R.R.( one part of B.N.S.F.) had huge mineral rights. I am curious if he is shipping his own product to himself. Just a thought.
Posted by Bonnie Dukowitz at 7:56PM CDT 10/27/14
 

Friday 10/17/14

Acreage Arguments
It may be a little early to start talking about 2015 planted acreage, but there are plenty of opinions on just how much farmers will increase soybean planting.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 2:21PM CDT 10/17/14 by Katie Micik | Post a Comment
Comments (6)
We will plant about same acres of corn, a few less acres of beans,but half as much $5.00 wheat. I will plant oats on bean and wheat acres. Had $400.00 an acre profit on oats this year.Beans bar far will make the most money, but rotation will also make you money.
Posted by Raymond Simpkins at 8:13PM CDT 10/18/14
Any body going to plant hay? I think more will be returned to hay and grazing( where fence and cattle are available). The cattle can spread the fertilizer for a couple of years. When markets improve, a cash crop can then be utilized.
Posted by Bonnie Dukowitz at 7:37AM CDT 10/19/14
Maybe some more bean acres, but not much. Have been in a non gmo bean program the last 5 years and am very thankful I stayed in all this time, the big guys can't get in since they closed the program off to anyone new a couple years ago and now they are crying because they want to know how to afford their big cash rents AND shiny new paint. We are going non gmo corn next year also, even though we aren't in a program, I am not a hippie/health nut, but I am so sick of paying Monsanto and everyone else tech fees that with a little extra work on my part can be money in my own seed bag!
Posted by Farmer Johnson at 2:50PM CDT 10/20/14
Up north where we have a $1.00/bu. plus basis on corn. I believe there will be much less corn. The basis on other crops are very wide as well, however with less bushels to handle the cost/acre is less.
Posted by SCOTT HENDRICKSON at 7:24AM CDT 10/22/14
Almost every year about this time farmers start thinking about which crops to plant the following year. The harvest surge of commodities complicates this process, sometimes causing growers to make premature plans. For now it's probably best to plan on sticking to rotation plans and make modifications later when true demand patterns begin to settle in.
Posted by Ernie Flint at 8:03AM CDT 10/24/14
I think you will get more soybeans mostly for rotational reasons and basis levels. If you get down to the 87-88 million acre range, it doesn't leave the "markets" much wiggle room for an average crop year. You will lose corn acres in the fringe areas as well, like ND, Western plains, Northern MN just because of economics and basis. If that is where we lose the 4 to 5 million acres, that won't hurt as much as if it were in the I states. IMHO, The rest of the corn farmers will gamble/hedge their corn acres on that assumption and hope to see a decent rally to the mid $4 range.
Posted by Pedro Sanchez at 9:11AM CDT 10/24/14
 

Thursday 10/16/14

Crude Crashes to 4 Year Lows
Crude oil futures have sunk to four-year lows, giving farmers an ample window to consider pricing their fuel needs for 2015.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 2:06PM CDT 10/16/14 by Katie Micik | Post a Comment
Comments (6)
Election year. I can not believe all of you at DTN are saying this is a market price for crude oil. Again ELECTION YEAR- no different than the REPORTS by the government on WASDE . No matter how thick the smoke screen- the political FUNDAMENTALS of government is -VOTES. Come on, enough is enough. Insulting farmers about low energy prices on election years- how about the High costs before elections? Somehow that was not important-now this "so called transition" in energy costs is going to make the difference to farming after the meltdown in commodities by the Almighty USDA reports and "ESTIMATES."REALITY IS HOW MOST AMERICANS SURVIVE.
Posted by DAVID/KEVIN GRUENHAGEN at 11:03PM CDT 10/16/14
David/Kevin...........Well said!!
Posted by GWL 61 at 8:22AM CDT 10/17/14
I guess we'll see if fertilizer prices drop now that oil is "cheap". That's usually the reasoning for high fertilizer costs if I'm not mistaken. Normally I try to avoid the scheme and device talk, but after the soybean numbers this growing season how can it not be a hot topic.
Posted by TOM DRAPER at 8:25AM CDT 10/17/14
Crude is down more than 20% in the last, lets just say year or so, corn is down about 40%, but yet anhydrous ammonia and Diesel are the same price now as when I was growing $6-$8/bu corn a couple years ago. I just read the other day that the US is going to pass Saudi Arabia in oil production very soon as the top oil producer in the world. 10-15 years ago I remember paying about $.90/gal of gasoline, about $.80/gal for diesel, and selling corn for not much less than today if any less at all. I havent researched or remember what I had to pay for nitrogen back then, but do the math. Inflate all those numbers equally, you end up with $3.00-3.50/ gas, $3.50-4.00/ gal diesel, anhydrous at $600-700/ton and corn at around $9.00/bushel. Somebody is playing games no doubt!!!
Posted by RJZ Peterson at 9:49AM CDT 10/17/14
You might be right. It appears many Bakken oil producers have the cost of production too low to be a target of the Saudis. The OPEC move could be more economic sanctions placed on Russia. Ukrainian � Russian peace talk are currently on going. There are the highest representatives meeting in Italy yesterday and today. If crude oil price rebounds on a peace treaty announcement, when/if that occurs, we will have a better clue as to the motivations of Saudi Arabia. Most are forecasting a weak Ruble with declining crude oil prices. One may wonder if Russian farmers will follow the Argentina farmer�s lead. The falling Argentine Pesos had Argentina's farmers withholding their crops from the market. Their thought process seemed to be; �Why should I sell something with a relatively stable value to receive a currency � cash - Pesos � that is worth less each day?� Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 9:53AM CDT 10/17/14
You all have made good points. But the man from Freeport , I'll. I think has come the closest in why the price of fuel has come down. That would also explaine why fertilizer isn't coming down. They are in a different world of there own. You want cheaper fertilizer then don't buy any OR PREORDER ANY. If 50% of you out there did that. It would bring fertilizer down where it should be. Maybe you guys could do what Argentina farmers are doing. Its worthless gold right now ( grain ). Once finished with harvest, lock the doors on everything and take time off until after New Years. You starve the market the money will come to put the price up there where you can be profitable again. WHAT HAVE YOU TO LOSE. SELL CHEAP GRAIN NOW! OR STARVE THE MARKET FOR TWO MONTHS AND GET SOME ROI ON YOUR CROP!
Posted by Crawford McFETRIDGE at 9:29AM CDT 10/30/14
 

Monday 10/13/14

STB "Ups the Ante" for Railroads
Beginning Oct. 22, all Class I railroads will be required to publicly file weekly data reports regarding service performance.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:47AM CDT 10/13/14 by Mary Kennedy | Post a Comment
Comments (9)
Good Grief! Another waste of time. Is that all the STB and the balance of government has to do is mandate more time to non-productive activities. Take a look. Too much traffic, whether rail, air, truck or barge, causes congestion. Congestion causes delays and inefficiency. Get rid of the Enviro, vote mongering Senators and Reps. delaying infrastructure improvement and a step in the right direction will be accomplished. Barge traffic, rail traffic and pipeline traffic improvement are action needed, not more idiots analyzing a problem which they created. How about some public works projects ( hugely successful in building infrastructure in the past) instead of entitlement programs.
Posted by Bonnie Dukowitz at 7:36AM CDT 10/14/14
Those are all good ideas Bonnie , but I'm afraid we are SOL, until the current administration and his cronies are "shipped out".
Posted by GWL 61 at 8:27AM CDT 10/14/14
Bonnie, You sound almost in the tone of FDR in some of your logic. And it worked well back then. But do not forget, it is the "No Accomplishments at All Costs" right side of the Congressional aisle that refuses to do anything constructive here. It's not your perceived "boogey man" administration holding it up. You voted for the guys sitting on the purse and calling for more House vacations. And you will this time. Look in the mirror for whom to blame.
Posted by Don Thompson at 1:19PM CDT 10/14/14
What a concept-------maybe the House, the Senate, and Supreme Court should have to report to the American public what they have accomplished each week ( of course only the weeks they actually work). Only one side of one sheet of paper would have to be use for all three!
Posted by n smith at 4:51PM CDT 10/14/14
Seems strange Don, The right side of the aisle you reference as non-constructive has voted in favor of Keystone and publicly supports other infrastructure projects. Might want to take a look at some votes and executive orders by Obama and actual realities of his cronies in the Senate. Do you by chance live in Colorado? I hear the air is thin and Whompum weed is of plenty.
Posted by Bonnie Dukowitz at 8:00PM CDT 10/14/14
Help may be coming in the longer run in the form of OPEC. John Kilduff, founding partner of Again Capital, basically said tonight, on Nightly Business report; "The Saudis are tired of loosing US market share in crude to the Bakkin formations. The Saudis want to teach the new "kid" who the low cost producers are. At the upcoming OPEC meeting Kilduff is expecting the Saudis to push for ultra low crude prices. The goal is to push the new producers out of business. Kilduff notes Saudi Arabia used this process in the mid 1980's when OPEC countries - Venezuela in particular, refused to drop production to hold/increase price. So Saudi Arabia flooded the World with oil. The price drop. Many non OPEC countries with "high" cost of production were financially forced to shut down. (It looks like crude prices dropped in half during that time frame.) So if Kilduff is correct, OPEC will be moving to push prices lower to shut down North Dakota oil. If that occurs, we will have the trains back looking for grain to move. A side benefit might be the decline in a revenue source for ISIS. ISIS receives revenue from stolen crude oil. They sell it at a discount of the black market. Things need to be "really" discounted to move "hot" products when general prices environment is low. Remember this is just one man's thought. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 1:01AM CDT 10/15/14
Interesting analogy, Freeport. With oil a world wide commodity, you may well have a view of the big picture based upon some history.
Posted by Bonnie Dukowitz at 5:53AM CDT 10/15/14
Bonnie, I agree the house has passed all kinds of bills of late, but with riders on each one that would cancel - well, you know what! How many anti Healthcare for Americans "votes" are they up to now? From what I read, the pipeline extension proposal is opposed by landowners and environmentalists among others. Why do you just attack the environmentalists?
Posted by Don Thompson at 8:31AM CDT 10/15/14
You bring up couple more examples of Don. For our health insurance, Obamacare is a disaster. We made the mistake of making our health insurance premium a priority. Had we paid nothing, our benefits would now be very lucrative in comparison. I wonder how many of those land owners use no oil. They want the oil, but the pipeline on someone else's property. The pipeline and high lines across our property are a nuisance, however as long as the light switch responds, I will tolerate them, somehow.
Posted by Bonnie Dukowitz at 12:25PM CDT 10/15/14
 

Friday 10/03/14

Informa Pegs Bean Production Above 4 Billion Bushels
Private analytical firm Informa Economics boosts U.S. soybean production above 4 billion bushels while holding corn production steady at 14.4 bb[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:40AM CDT 10/03/14 by Katie Micik | Post a Comment
Comments (6)
Has there ever been a report how wrong Informa has been in other years? seen there Inflated numbers before
Posted by andrew mohlman at 9:05PM CDT 10/03/14
Some day people will learn the difference between instant yield and average yield on their yield monitor, big mouths and a few good spots here and there has cost American farmers billions!!
Posted by JAMIE KOUBA at 12:29AM CDT 10/06/14
Hi Andrew. Informa publishes their history vs. USDA in every report. For reference: Over the last 10 years on corn, Informa's October estimates been higher than USDA's October forecasts 8 times, and lower twice. On soybeans, they've been higher 8 times, even twice, and never below.
Posted by KATIE MICIK at 9:20AM CDT 10/06/14
Katie, based on Informa's history, are they more right than USDA or not on the ending yield per acre? It's one thing to just release numbers, and its another to have good data and release the numbers. I think the bean crop is going to be phenomenal. I just combined beans last weekend that averaged 50 bu/A on ground that got 16 inches of rain in one week in June, and then didn't rain hardly anything measurable from late June until late August. Oh they also got nipped by some frost too.
Posted by Pedro Sanchez at 8:44AM CDT 10/08/14
Frost damage worse than expected in North Dakota beans running 20-25 or less early maturing varieties good 35-40 the longer day beans very poor
Posted by Unknown at 11:27PM CDT 10/08/14
It doesn't matter what their report or any other says ALL unpriced soys getting locked tight in the bins until the cash market gets back to $11 at the very least. I don't know anyone that can make it work under that .after all I raised them ,they are mine , and they aren't going anywhere for less . Until then I'm binning them . Maybe Informa should release a report on the minimum price it's gonna take to get them out of the farmers hand . Now wouldn't that be more useful interesting and and informative ? I challenge you for those numbers Informa . And if you could please have that out by Friday morning , after all you seem to know all the other magic numbers ?
Posted by Unknown at 12:00AM CDT 10/09/14
 

Thursday 10/02/14

Senators Request USDA Study on Rail Service Delays
Two senators asked USDA to conduct a thorough economic study of what this year's rail service delays cost the agriculture industry. The question is: to what end?[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 11:44AM CDT 10/02/14 by Katie Micik | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Typical political B. S. Get Harry Reid to allow a vote on the pipeline and the main issue would be solved. Sen. Klobuchar and Sen. Franken, from Minnesota, are holding hands with Obama in opposition. Take advantage is correct. Both of these Senators are raising millions of $ for campaign financing from New York to California, at the expense of all upper Midwest industry. Get another study and then sell what they accomplished to the voters. Absolutely Nothing but waste more money. Obama, Franken,Klobuchar, your buddy Buffet, owner the BNSF, has enough cash.
Posted by Bonnie Dukowitz at 5:34AM CDT 10/03/14
 

Tuesday 09/30/14

Industrial Reports to Make a Comeback in 2015
Agriculture industrial reports on wet and dry ethanol milling, flour milling, oilseed crush and cotton suffered from the Census Bureau's budgetary axe in 2011, but USDA announced on Monday it's ready to put the reports on 2015 calendar.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:10AM CDT 09/30/14 by Katie Micik | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
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Recent Blog Posts
  • PNW Shuttles Slowed This Week by Cold, Snow; Casselton Derailment Adds to Slowdown
  • Snow Snarls Harvest
  • Weekly Railroad Updates Show Mixed Results in Service Improvements
  • Sudden Closure, Dredging Slow Lower Mississippi Traffic
  • CFTC Fixes Ag Concerns on Residual Interest
  • Informa Sees Corn Crop at 14.49 BB, Beans at 3.99 BB
  • Rail Delays Continue
  • Daily Price Limits to Shrink Over Weekend
  • Weekly Rail Updates Disappoint Shippers
  • Acreage Arguments
  • Crude Crashes to 4 Year Lows
  • STB "Ups the Ante" for Railroads
  • Informa Pegs Bean Production Above 4 Billion Bushels
  • Senators Request USDA Study on Rail Service Delays
  • Industrial Reports to Make a Comeback in 2015
  • Elevators Full; Grains Get Grounded
  • Barge Freight Surges Higher
  • A Demand Optimist
  • Elevator Manager: Fall Harvest Could Be "Complete Disaster" Without Rail Cars
  • A Full Notebook