To meet the mandated Renewable Fuel Standard mandate of 13.8 billion gallons of renewable fuel this year, corn ethanol production must average 1.222 billion gallons a month for the rest of the year, an analyst asserted.
"We have to average 1.222 billion gallons per month for the rest of the year to max the corn ethanol category, which is very close to peak production of 1.225 billion, and we would have to accelerate production up to that level very soon," said Michael Walker, quantitative analyst for Augsburg Energy, Ramsey, N.J.
He said the scenario points to a strong possibility of a shortage, "Though it will likely be a slight one relative to the quantity of banked RINs."
He believes the current spike in D6 ethanol renewable identification numbers used as credits by refiners, blenders and importers to show compliance with the annual RFS renewable volume obligation, is due to "fears" that there will not be enough ethanol to meet the 2014 RVO, not this year.
Myke Feinman can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
© Copyright 2013 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.