Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Sunday 08/24/14

Energy Markets: Weekly Analysis

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.24 lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. However, after posting a new low (for this sell-off) of $101.07 the spot-month contract rallied to close at $102.29. Weekly stochastics remain below the oversold level of 20%, meaning a bullish turn could soon occur. The contango in the nearby futures spread continues to strengthen, indicating a more bearish view of supply and demand.

Source: DTN ProphetX

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $3.70 lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. The spot-month contract extended its sell-off to a low of $92.50, putting the market in position to possibly test its previous low of $91.24. Weekly stochastics moved below the 20% level indicating the market is oversold.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 2.01cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down after the spot-month contract posted a new low for this move of $2.8017. Weekly stochastics moved below the oversold level of 20%, setting the stage for a possible bullish crossover in the near future.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 3.98cts higher. The higher weekly close by the spot-month contract following the establishment of a new-low for the downtrend of $2.6374, hints at a possible move to at least a secondary sideways trend. If so, initial resistance is pegged between $2.8340 and $2.8947. These prices mark the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $3.1520 through last week's low. Weekly stochastics saw a bullish crossover below 20%, opening the door for a possible uptrend.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 6.4cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways, with support at the recent low of $3.723 and resistance at the 4-week high of $4.020. Last week's low of $3.737 may have established a double-bottom formation, putting the market in position to establish a secondary uptrend this coming week. Weekly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20% and nearing a bullish crossover.

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Posted at 12:29PM CDT 08/24/14 by Darin Newsom
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