Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Monday 08/18/14

ARC 180

Source: DTN

Let me begin by saying this: DTN has some great customers. After last week's Newsom on the Market column, "ARC of Destruction," I received numerous responses regarding my conclusion that the new government program could ultimately blow up corn's demand market. The general theme from respondents (many posted in DTN's Letters to the Editor segment) was that I had overlooked two key factors: 1) The county ARC program pays on base acres; 2) Payment caps will limit the possible impact on planting decisions.

Given that my columns are opinion based on my analysis, the responses could have turned nasty and personal. We see it all too often in other venues. But it certainly wasn't the case here. Without exception the responses were polite, complimentary, and well thought out discussions of the topic at hand. To all of you who joined the conversation, either through email or the social media site Twitter, I thank you. You have again confirmed my belief that there can be disagreement without all the ugliness. I tip my cap to you.

Those of you who are familiar with my analysis know that I'm willing to change my mind when signals start to point the other direction. As an analyst, you have to be able to do that. So to simply sum up my thoughts on last week's column: I agree with you. The two factors listed above will likely keep the ARC program from destroying corn's demand market.

Does this constitute a complete 180 on my part? It could be considered that way, which is fine. But let me add this, the bottom line of my piece was the danger that increased corn acreage holds for the corn market, a familiar theme dating back to at least 2011's column "Adequate." I still believe it is possible that by the end of the new government program, 2018 I believe, corn acres could be larger than what we saw in 2014. However, if this does indeed occur, it will likely come from market forces rather than the new government programs.

If you're interested in what should be an informative discussion of ARC and PLC, be sure to join DTN's webinar on August 21. Here is a link that that will take you to the signup page: http://bit.ly/…

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter:www.twitter.com\Darin Newsom


Commodity trading is very complicated and the risk of loss is substantial. The author does not engage in any commodity trading activity for his own account or for others. The information provided is general, and is NOT a substitute for your own independent business judgment or the advice of a registered Commodity Trading Adviser.

Posted at 11:24AM CDT 08/18/14 by Darin Newsom
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