Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Saturday 08/16/14

Energy Markets: Weekly Analysis

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.49 lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. However, after falling to a new low of $101.92 the spot-month contract rallied to close at $103.53, near technical price support of $103.61. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $96.75 through the high of $117.34. Weekly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20%, meaning a bullish crossover could be seen in the near future.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.30 lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Similar to Brent crude though, the spot-month contract rallied off its new low of $95.26 to close above technical support at $96.73. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $91.24 through the high of $107.73. Weekly stochastics are near the oversold level of 20%, indicating the market could continue to drift sideways to down over the coming weeks.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 2.89cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways to down, shrugging off the previous bullish outside week. The spot-month contract posted a new low of $2.8141 before its lower weekly close. Stochastics are holding near the oversold level of 20%, though the last major signal was a bullish crossover established the week of November 11, 2013.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 5.51cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. The spot-month contract closed the week below technical support at $2.7134, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $2.4945 through the high of $3.1520. Weekly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20% and nearing a bullish crossover.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 18.6cts lower. The spot-month contract almost posted a bearish outside week last week, coming just short of taking out the previous week's low of $3.761. Weekly stochastics continue to hold below the oversold level of 20%, keeping the market in a sideways secondary (intermediate-term) trend. A move below the 4-week low of $3.723 could trigger a test of major (long-term) support between $3.656 and $3.431.

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Posted at 9:45AM CDT 08/16/14 by Darin Newsom
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