Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Saturday 07/12/14

Energy Markets: Weekly Analysis

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $3.98 lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is down. The spot-month contract is below short-term support at $107.84 and could now target longer-term support at $104.62. This price marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $96.75 through the high of $117.34. The spot futures spread continues to show a strengthening contango reflecting a more bearish view of supply and demand.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $3.23 lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart is sideways to down. The spot-month contract is between support at $101.43 and $99.48, prices that marks the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the previous rally from $91.24 through the recent high of $107.73. Weekly stochastics are neutral to bearish. The market's forward curve continues to show a weakening backwardation reflecting a less bullish view of supply and demand.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 6.75cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways to down. The spot-month contract is testing its previous low of $2.8455 while weekly stochastics remain neutral to bearish. The contango in the forward curve continues to strengthen, indicating a more bearish view of supply and demand.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 11.13cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways to down. The spot-month contract is testing support at $2.9008, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $2.4945 through the high of $3.1520. Weekly stochastics are now bearish. The 50% retracement level is down at $2.8322.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 26.0cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is now down with the spot-month contract trading below support at $4.249. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.129 through the high of $6.493. Next support could be found near the 2004 low of $3.953.

Posted at 9:05AM CDT 07/12/14 by Darin Newsom
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