Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Sunday 03/30/14

Ag Markets: Weekly Analysis

Corn: The May contract closed 13.00cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart is sideways. Secondary resistance remains at $5.01 3/4, the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.76 1/2 through the low of $4.14 1/2. Support is at the four-week low of $4.52. Next resistance and support is at $5.45 1/2 and $4.58 1/2 respectively. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests adding 16,276 contracts to their net-long futures position, putting it at 258,627 contracts, the largest net-long futures position since late March 2013.

Source: DTN ProphetX

Soybeans: The May contract closed 27.75cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with weekly stochastics back above the overbought level of 80%. The May contract is nearing resistance at the recent high of $14.60. If the secondary trend turns down, initial support is at $13.51 1/4, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous rally from $11.75 1/2. A move through the previous high could lead to a test of major (long-term) resistance on the monthly chart between $14.75 3/4 and $15.49 3/4. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders reduced their net-long futures position by another 11,549 contracts, putting it at 176,363 contracts.

Wheat: The Chicago May contract closed 2.25cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains up. However, the May contract is consolidating below resistance at $7.25 3/4. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $8.98 through the low of $5.53 1/2. Weekly stochastics remain bullish but are approaching the overbought level of 80%. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders adding to their net-long futures position by 9,748 contracts, putting it at 21,575 contracts.

Cotton: The May contract closed 0.43cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The May contract posted a bullish outside pattern last week, establishing a new high of 97.35. However, the close just above the previous week's high may have established a spike top, particularly considering the bearish crossover seen in weekly stochastics (see chart). If the secondary trend has turned, initial support is pegged at 90.63, the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders reducing their net-long futures position by 464 contracts, putting it at 65,272 contracts.

Live Cattle: The June contract closed 2.225 higher. The market reestablished its uptrend as the June contract moved to a new high of $139.00 last week. This action offset the key bearish reversal seen the previous week despite the fact weekly stochastics show the market is sharply overbought. Initial support is now pegged between $132.35 and $130.30, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the previous uptrend. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders added to their net-long futures position by 1,918 contracts.

The most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders report was for positions held as of Tuesday, March 25.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Posted at 7:08AM CDT 03/30/14 by Darin Newsom
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