Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Sunday 03/23/14

Ag Markets: Weekly Analysis

Corn: The May contract closed 7.00cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart is sideways. Secondary resistance remains at $5.01 3/4, the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.76 1/2 through the low of $4.14 1/2. Support is at the four-week low of $4.52. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests adding 7,447 contracts to their net-long futures position, putting it at 242,351 contracts.

Soybeans: The May contract closed 20.25cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with weekly stochastics bearish below the overbought level of 80%. Resistance is at the recent high of $14.60 with initial support at $13.51 1/4. The latter marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous rally from $11.75 1/2 through the recent high. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders reduced their net-long futures position by another 7,645 contracts, putting it at 187,912 contracts.

Wheat: The Chicago May contract closed 6.00cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains up. Resistance is at $7.25 3/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $8.98 through the low of $5.53 1/2. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders adding to their net-long futures position by 5,103 contracts, putting it at 11,827 contracts.

Cotton: The May contract closed 1.12cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the May contract testing its recent high of 93.75. Weekly stochastics are well above 80% reflecting an overbought situation. Support continues to come from noncommercial buying with Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showing this group adding 2,626 contracts, putting the position at 65,736 contracts. Possible major (long-term) resistance remains at a series of highs near 93.90.

Live Cattle: The June contract closed 1.725 lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the contract's weekly chart looks to have turned down with the establishment of a bearish key reversal. After posting a new high of $138.775, the June contract moved below last week's low of $135.55 before closing lower for the week. In conjunction with this bearish technical patter, weekly stochastics saw a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%. Given the continued bullish commercial outlook indicated by futures spreads, initial support is pegged between $132.20 and $130.175, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the previous uptrend. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders added to their net-long futures position by 828 contracts.

The most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders report was for positions held as of Tuesday, March 18.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Posted at 9:55AM CDT 03/23/14 by Darin Newsom
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