Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Sunday 03/16/14

Ag Markets: Weekly Analysis

DTN's Weekly Technical Analysis: Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Cotton, and Live Cattle 03/16

Corn: The May contract closed 3.00cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains up. However, weekly stochastics are above 80% and nearing a bearish crossover. Secondary resistance remains at $5.01 3/4, the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.76 1/2 through the low of $4.14 1/2. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests adding 36,324 contracts to their net-long futures position putting it at 234,904 contracts. This is the largest net-long position this group has held since late March 2013.

Soybeans: The May contract closed 69.25cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways with weekly stochastics bearish below the overbought level of 80%. Resistance is at the recent high of $14.60 with initial support at $13.51 1/4. The latter marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous rally from $11.75 1/2 through the recent high. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders reduced their net-long futures position by 14,807 contracts, putting it at 195,557 contracts.

Wheat: The Chicago May contract closed 33.25cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains up. Next resistance is at $7.25 3/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $8.98 through the low of $5.53 1/2. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders moving to a net-long futures position of 6,724 contracts, a switch of 13,711 contracts from the previous week. This is the first time this group has been net-long since late October, 2013.

Cotton: The May contract closed 0.92ct higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the May contract posting a new high of 93.75. Weekly stochastics are well above 80% reflecting an overbought situation. Support continues to come from noncommercial buying with Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showing this group holding 11,309 contracts, putting the position at 63,110 contracts. Possible major (long-term) resistance is at a series of highs near 93.90.

Live Cattle: The April contract closed 2.000 higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways with the contract holding below the recent high of $146.825. Weekly stochastics above 80% continue to indicate the contract is overbought. The monthly chart shows the contract could establish a bearish key reversal with a monthly close below the February settlement of $144.975. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders reduced their net-long futures position by 431 contracts.

The most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders report was for positions held as of Tuesday, March 11.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Posted at 7:50AM CDT 03/16/14 by Darin Newsom
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