Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Saturday 03/08/14

Ag Markets: Weekly Analysis

Corn: The May contract closed 25.5cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains up. However, weekly stochastics above 80%, indicating the contract is overbought, and nearing a possible bearish crossover. Secondary resistance remains at $5.01 3/4, the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.76 1/2 through the low of $4.14 1/2. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests adding 72,410 contracts to their net-long futures position.

Soybeans: The May contract closed 43.75cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the May contract posting a new high of $14.60 last week. Major (long-term) resistance on the market's monthly chart is at $14.75 3/4, the 50% retracement level of the previous major sell-off from $17.89 through the low of $8.94. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercials reduced their net-long futures position by 1,452 contracts.

Wheat: The Chicago May contract closed 51.75cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains up. Initial resistance is between $6.68 1/4 and $6.85, prices that mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $8.98 through the low of $5.53 1/2. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders reducing their net-short futures position by 11,703 contracts.

Cotton: The May contract closed 4.13cts higher. The market reestablished its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, supported by renewed commercial buying interest. The May contract moved to a new high of 93.35 despite weekly stochastics that continue to indicate the market is overbought and nearing a downturn. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests reducing their net-long futures position by 754 contracts.

Live Cattle: The April contract closed 1.725 lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend appears to have turned down. Weekly stochastics established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80% with Friday's lower weekly close. Initial is pegged near $138.70, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $125.55 through last week's high of $146.825. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders reduced their net-long futures position by 2,383 contracts.

The most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders report was for positions held as of Tuesday, March 4.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Posted at 6:13AM CST 03/08/14 by Darin Newsom
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