Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Sunday 02/23/14

Ag Markets: Weekly Analysis

Corn: The March contract closed 7.75cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains up. However, weekly stochastics are nearing the overbought level of 80% while the March contract tests resistance near $4.65. Last Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders increasing their net-long futures position (as of Tuesday, February 18) by 18,093 contracts to 53,504 contracts.

Soybeans: The March contract closed 33.25cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Weekly stochastics are nearing the 80% level, indicating the market is approaching an overbought situation. March soybeans are testing the previous high of $13.77 3/4, supported by continued noncommercial buying interest. The most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed this group adding 9,568 contracts to their net-long futures position.

Wheat: The Chicago March contract closed 11.25cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains up. The nearby March contract is trading above initial resistance near $6.07 and could now target $6.35 1/2. The latter marks the 50% retracement of the previous sell-off from $7.20 1/2 through the recent low of $5.50 1/4. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests decreasing their net-short futures position by 13,509 contracts.

Cotton: The March contract closed 0.46cts lower. The market is nearing the establishment of a secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend, with weekly stochastics poised for a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%. If so, initial support is pegged at 84.47, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from 76.65 through the high of 89.31. Last Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests increasing their net-long futures position by 5,962 contracts.

Live Cattle: The April contract closed 0.35 higher. Despite the higher weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down. The April contract has not been able to push through its previous high of $143.125, while the most recent weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests reducing their net-long futures position by 4,454 contracts. Bullish fundamentals should limit the potential sell-off, with initial support pegged near $136.40. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $125.55 through the recent high.

The most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders report was for positions held as of Tuesday, February 18.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Posted at 2:33PM CST 02/23/14 by Darin Newsom
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