Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Sunday 02/16/14

Ag Markets: Weekly Analysis

Corn: The March contract closed 1.00ct higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains up. Weekly stochastics are still bullish, but approaching the overbought level of 80%. Initial resistance is pegged at $4.65 with longer-term resistance near $5.07 1/2. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders moving to a net-long futures position of 35,411 contracts.

Soybeans: The March contract closed 6.00cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned up following the move to a new four-week high by the nearby March contract. The next upside target is the previous high of $13.77 3/4. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, though approaching the overbought level of 80%. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders increasing their net-long futures position by 24,404 contracts to 189,763 contracts.

Wheat: The Chicago March contract closed 21.00cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains up with weekly stochastics bullish. Initial resistance is pegged between $6.07 and $6.35 1/2, and longer-term resistance pegged between $6.63 3/4 and $6.88 1/2. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders continuing to hold a net-short futures position of 40,483 contracts, opening the door for increased short-covering to drive the market higher.

Cotton: The March contract closed 0.08cts higher. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the Mach contract appears to be nearing a turn to a sideways, if not down trend. Weekly stochastics are above the overbought level of 80%, setting up a potential bearish crossover in the near future. The carry in the March to May futures spread continues to strengthen indicating increased pressure from commercial traders. Noncommercial traders increased their net-long futures position to 50,278 contracts in the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report.

Live Cattle: The April contract closed 0.70 higher. The higher weekly close turned the secondary (intermediate-term) trend sideways with resistance at the high of $143.125 and support at the recent low of $138.60. Weekly stochastics remain neutral to bearish near the overbought level of 80%. Noncommercial traders increased their net-long futures position to 123,025 contracts according to the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report.

The most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders report was for positions held as of Tuesday, February 11.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Posted at 10:24AM CST 02/16/14 by Darin Newsom
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