Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Saturday 02/08/14

Ag Markets: Weekly Analysis

Corn: The March contract closed 10.25cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart is up. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, while the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders covering all but 1,293 contracts of their net-short-futures position (as of the week ending Tuesday, February 4). Next resistance for the old-crop March contract is $4.65, while the new-crop December could target $4.90.

Soybeans: The March contract closed 48.75cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. The spot-month contract is testing the high end of its sideways trading range between $13.30 and $13.39 1/4. This could lead to test of the low side near $12.70 in coming weeks. The weekly CFTC report showed noncommercial traders add 12,409 contracts to their net-long futures position. The new-crop November contract is also in a sideways trend with resistance at the four-week high of $11.29.

Wheat: The Chicago March contract closed 21.75cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart has turned up. Weekly stochastics are signaling the uptrend, establishing a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders reducing their net-short futures position by 8,789 contracts.

Cotton: The March contract closed 1.64cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. However, weekly stochastics are indicating an overbought situation above 80%. The March contract is testing its previous high of 88.43 (week of January 19, 2014). Noncommercial traders reportedly decreased their net-long futures position (through the week ending Tuesday, February 4) by 215 contracts.

Live Cattle: The April contract closed 0.025 lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Initial support is pegged near $136.40. The commercial outlook remains bullish and could possibly lead to a test of the high of $143.125, though this too weakened slightly this past week. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders adding to their net-long futures position by 6,080 contracts.

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Posted at 7:44AM CST 02/08/14 by Darin Newsom
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