Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Saturday 01/18/14

Ag Markets: Weekly Analysis

Corn: The March contract closed 8.75cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains sideways despite bullish weekly stochastics and noncommercial traders decreasing their net-short futures position by 27,751 contracts (as of Tuesday, January 14). Initial resistance remains at $4.65 with support at the recent low of $4.06 1/4.

Soybeans: The March contract closed 38.00cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways to up. Initial resistance remains between $13.30 and the recent high of $13.39 1/4 (week of December 22). If the March contract can get above that level it could extend its rally to the high of $13.77 3/4. Daily stochastics remain neutral to bullish, holding below the overbought level of 80%.

Wheat: The Chicago March contract closed 5.50cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains down. However, the March contract did not establish a new low last week as it held just above the previous week's $5.60 1/2. Noncommercial traders continue to increase their net-short futures position (as of Tuesday, January 14) despite weekly stochastics that show the market remains sharply oversold.

Cotton: The March contract closed 4.21cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The March contract has cleared resistance at 85.96, a price that marks the 67% retracement of the previous downtrend from 90.61 through the low of 76.65. Next resistance is the previous high. Despite continued bullish weekly stochastics, noncommercial traders decreased their net-long futures position (as of Tuesday, January 14).

Live Cattle: The February contract closed 3.65 higher. The February contract was able to extend its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on strong buying from both commercial and noncommercial traders. The latter reportedly increased their net-long futures position (as of Tuesday, January 14) 10,248 contracts despite weekly stochastics indicating the market is overbought. Like other markets, live cattle will at some point exhaust buying interest leaving it vulnerable to a sharp sell-off.

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Posted at 8:33AM CST 01/18/14 by Darin Newsom
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