Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Sunday 12/29/13

Ag Markets: Weekly Analysis

Corn: The March contract closed 5.75cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. With weekly stochastics now bullish in an oversold situation (below 20%), the nearby March contract continues to hold above support at its recent low of $4.18 1/2 and below resistance at the four-week high of $4.40 3/4. Based on stochastics, the next change in trend should be up with the initial price target near $5.02 1/2.

Soybeans: The more active March contract closed 17.25cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways. However, the March contract posted a bearish outside week last week indicating it could work back toward support pegged at $12.98 3/4. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous rally from $12.33 1/4 (week of November 3) through last week's high of $13.39 1/4. The four-week low is $12.95 3/4.

Wheat: The Chicago March contract closed 4.50cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains down. However, the wheat market in general is sharply oversold with daily, weekly, and monthly stochastics well below the oversold level of 20%. The March Chicago contract is testing major (long-term) price support at $5.99 1/4, a price that marks the 67% retracement level of the uptrend from June 2010 low of $4.25 1/2 through the July 2012 high of $9.47 1/4.

Cotton: The March contract closed 0.97cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. The March contract posted a bullish outside week (traded above the previous week's high, below the previous week's low, and closed higher for the week) indicating the market could continue to extend its uptrend. Resistance is pegged at 85.96, a price that marks the 67% retracement of the downtrend from the high of 90.61 (week of August 12) through the low of 76.65 (week of November 18).

Live Cattle: The February contract closed 1.05 higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways. The February contact is holding below resistance at its previous high of $135.45 (week of October 13). Support remains near $131.10, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $124.025 through the high of $135.45.

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Commodity trading is very complicated and the risk of loss is substantial. The author does not engage in any commodity trading activity for his own account or for others. The information provided is general, and is NOT a substitute for your own independent business judgment or the advice of a registered Commodity Trading Adviser.

Posted at 10:41AM CST 12/29/13 by Darin Newsom
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