Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Sunday 12/01/13

Ag Markets: Monthly Analysis

Corn: The spot-month contract closed 13.00cts lower. The major (long-term) trend remains down. The nearby December contract posted a new low of $4.10 3/4 in November while monthly stochastics have dipped below the oversold level of 20%. These oversold conditions, combined with the more active March contract trading near the lower-third of the 5-year price distribution range, could begin to slow the downtrend.

Soybeans: The spot-month contract closed 70.25cts higher. The major (long-term) trend remains up. The January contract posted a secondary bullish outside month, trading outside the October trading range before settling higher. This follows the bullish key reversal registered in August. Monthly stochastics remain bullish as well. Initial resistance is near $13.71, the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $17.89 through the low August 2013 low of $11.62 1/2. However, given the continued bullish commercial outlook indicated by the inverted forward curve, the market should see a 50% to 67% retracement, putting the long-term target area between $14.75 3/4 and $15.80 1/2.

Wheat: The spot-month Chicago contract closed 1.25cts higher. Despite the higher close, the major (long-term) trend remains down. Monthly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20%, indicating a possible move to a sideways trend until a bullish crossover is seen. Technical price support remains at the previous low of $6.35 1/2 (August 2013).

Cotton: The spot-month contract closed 0.96ts higher. The major (long-term) trend is sideways. Technical support is at the low of 66.10 (June 2012) with the high-side of the range near 93.90.

Live Cattle: The spot-month contract closed 1.525 higher. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways. The more active February contract is testing the previous high of $134.50 (December 2012) while monthly stochastics are near 80%, indicating the market is overbought. Long-term support remains near $113.67, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $79.975 through the previously mentioned high.

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Posted at 10:54AM CST 12/01/13 by Darin Newsom
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