Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Saturday 11/16/13

Ag Markets: Weekly Analysis

Corn: The December contract closed 4.75cts lower. Despite its lower weekly close the December contract stabilized this week, holding above its recent low of $4.15 1/2. Weekly stochastics continue to indicate a move to a possible secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend following the previous week's bullish crossover. If an uptrend is established, it could be led by commercial traders as the trend in the December to March spread is already up. Noncommercial traders decreased their net-short futures position by 47,204 contracts through the week ending Tuesday, November 12.

Soybeans: The January contract closed 15.50cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart has turned sideways again. The January contract tested secondary resistance between $13.07 3/4 and $13.45 1/4, prices that mark the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $14.06 through the low of $11.69, before falling back. Weekly stochastics remain neutral, while the trend in the January to March futures spread is sideways. Noncommercial traders added 12,832 contracts to their net-long futures position as of Tuesday, November 12.

Wheat: The Chicago December contract closed 5.25cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the wheat chart remains sideways to down. The December Chicago contract continues to move toward a test of its previous low at $6.35 1/2 (week of August 11). According to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report, noncommercial traders increased their net-short futures position by 24,917 contracts through the week ending Tuesday, November 12. The trend in the December to March futures spread is sideways.

Cotton: The December contract closed 0.24cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend appears to have turned sideways as the December contract consolidated above its previous low of 75.27. Weekly stochastics are nearing a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, indicating the secondary trend could soon turn up. Noncommercial traders have taken their net-long futures position down to only 5,185 contracts, a decrease of another 7,517 contracts through the week ending Tuesday, November 12. The trend in the December to March futures spread has turned up.

Live Cattle: The December contract closed 1.00 higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways to down. Initial support remains near $130.65, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $122.775 through the recent high of $134.575. The 50% retracement level is at $128.675. Resistance is at the previous high of $134.575. Noncommercial traders reduced their net-long futures position by 460 contracts through the week ending Tuesday, November 12.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Posted at 6:30AM CST 11/16/13 by Darin Newsom
Post a Blog Comment:
Your Comment:
DTN reserves the right to delete comments posted to any of our blogs and forums, for reasons including profanity, libel, irrelevant personal attacks and advertisements.
Blog Home Pages
August  2014
S M T W T F S
               1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31                  
Subscribe to Technically Speaking RSS
Recent Blog Posts
  • Grain Markets: Weekly Analysis
  • Energy Markets: Weekly Analysis
  • Soybean Fundamentals
  • Feeder Cattle Fading
  • Cash Corn's Long-term Price Patterns
  • ARC 180
  • Grain Markets: Weekly Analysis
  • Energy Markets: Weekly Analysis
  • Dec Corn: Setting the Stage
  • Grain Markets: Weekly Analysis
  • Energy Markets: Weekly Analysis
  • Grain Markets: Weekly Analysis
  • Energy Markets: Weekly Analysis
  • Soybeans: The Different Views of Futures and Cash
  • USDX: That Statue Moved
  • Hot Cocoa and Popped Corn
  • The End is Near for Cotton
  • Grain Markets: Weekly Analysis
  • Energy Markets: Weekly Analysis
  • All That Glitters Isn't Gold