Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Saturday 10/19/13

Ag Markets: Weekly Analysis

Corn: The December contract closed 8.25cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways on the weekly chart. After posting a new low of $4.32 early in the week, the December contract rallied to a high of $4.47 3/4 before closing at $4.41 1/2. This move led to another bullish crossover by weekly stochastics well below the oversold level of 20%, indicating the contract could soon post a rally.

Soybeans: The November contract closed 24.50cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains sideways. The November contract has held support near $12.56 3/4, a price that marks the 61.8% retracement level of the uptrend from $11.62 1/2 through the high of $14.09 1/2. Weekly stochastics remain neutral while market volatility is high at approximately 21.9%.

Wheat: The Chicago December contract closed 13.50cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The Dec Chicago contract posted a bullish outside week last week, indicating the contract could be set for one more push higher. Initial resistance remains near $7.28, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $9.13 through the low of $6.35 1/2. Weekly stochastics are bullish and moving toward the overbought level of 80%.

Cotton: The December contract closed 0.26cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. The December contract continues its move toward support at 82.21, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from 70.70 through the high of 93.72. This support also represents a double-bottom formation creating the potential for a larger sell-off, particularly with the strengthening downtrend in the Dec/Mar futures spread indicating a more bearish commercial outlook. Weekly stochastics are nearing the oversold level of 20%.

Live Cattle: The December contract closed 0.45cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend appears to have turned down. The contract posted a key bearish reversal last week, moving to a new high (for the uptrend) of $134.00 before falling below the previous week's low of $131.65 and closing lower for the week. Weekly stochastics also established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%. Initial support is pegged near $130.25, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend. The 50% retracement level is down near $128.40.

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Posted at 7:31AM CDT 10/19/13 by Darin Newsom
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