Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Monday 12/22/14

Weekly Analysis: Livestock Markets

Live Cattle: The February contract closed $2.075 lower at $160.10 last week after. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. The February contract continues to test support near $158.125, a price that marks the 33% retracement of the previous uptrend from its contract low of $128.85 through its contract high of $172.75. However, given the continued bearish weekly stochastics Feb live cattle could test the 50% retracement level of $150.80. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed a continued reduction of the noncommercial net-long futures position by 10,095 contracts, with longs decreased by 8,515 contracts and shorts increased by 1,580 contracts.

Feeder Cattle: The January contract closed $5.45 lower at $220.15 last week, leaving a bearish gap between its posted high of $223.60 and the previous week's low of $225.60. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down, with weekly stochastics bearish. Initial support is pegged near $215.35, a price that marks the 33% retracement level from the rally from the contract low of $167.40 through the contract high of $239.30. The 50% retracement level is down at $203.35. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed the noncommercial net-long position increasing by 117 contracts, with shorts decreased by 1,506 contracts and longs decreased by 1,389 contracts.

Lean hogs: The February contract closed $1.35 lower at $81.90 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with weekly stochastics nearing the oversold level of 20%. Feb hogs were able to rally off its test of support near $79.30, posting a low of $78.675 last week. Given its bearish technical factors, the contract could look to slide back toward this low before a change in trend is seen.

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.76, up 4 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, weekly stochastics are above 90% indicating the cash market is sharply overbought. Such a market could quickly establish a bearish crossover (weekly stochastics) meaning a move to a secondary downtrend. The NCI.X is within striking distance of its next target of $3.84, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.86 through the low of $2.81. National average basis was calculated at 34 cents under Friday evening, slightly weaker than the 5-year average of 28 cents under but stronger than 2009-2010 national average basis for the same week of 52 cents under.

Soybean meal: The January contract closed $3.50 lower last week at $363.50. Weekly stochastics posted a bearish crossover below the overbought level of 80% confirming the market's move to a secondary sideways trend. Resistance remains between $365.80 and $371.50, prices that mark the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $410.30 through the low of $293.70. Support is pegged between $363.90 and $358.70, the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the rally from the $293.70 low through the high of $398.90 (week of November 10). The market's forward curve remains inverted, reflecting a bullish commercial outlook that should keep the market supported. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed the noncommercial net-long futures position decreasing by 6,858 contracts due to a reduction in longs of 6,168 contracts and an increase in shorts by 694 contracts.

Last Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders were report showed positions as of Tuesday, December 16.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter:www.twitter.com\Darin Newsom


Commodity trading is very complicated and the risk of loss is substantial. The author does not engage in any commodity trading activity for his own account or for others. The information provided is general, and is NOT a substitute for your own independent business judgment or the advice of a registered Commodity Trading Adviser.

Posted at 5:04AM CST 12/22/14 by Darin Newsom
 

Sunday 12/21/14

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.76, up 4 cents for the week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, weekly stochastics are above 90% indicating the cash market is sharply overbought. Such a market could quickly establish a bearish crossover (weekly stochastics) meaning a move to a secondary downtrend. The NCI.X is within striking distance of its next target of $3.84, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.86 through the low of $2.81. National average basis was calculated at 34 cents under Friday evening, slightly weaker than the 5-year average of 28 cents under but stronger than 2009-2010 national average basis for the same week of 52 cents under.

Corn (Old-crop): The March contract closed 3.00cts higher at $4.10 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the March contract posting a new high (for the uptrend) of $4.14. With weekly stochastics already above 90%, indicating a sharply overbought situation, March corn could have difficulty extending this rally to its next target of $4.26 3/4. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.23 through the low of $3.30 1/2, and would also close a bearish gap left the week of July 7 ($4.26 to $4.23 1/4). While Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed the noncommercial net-long position increasing by 2,711 contracts, it was accomplished by short-covering of 7,629 contracts offset by reducing their long position by 4,918 contracts.

Corn (New-crop): The December contract closed 3.25cts higher at $4.35. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the December contract testing resistance near $4.34. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.04 through the low of $3.64 1/4. Given that the December 2015 to March 2016 continues to show a neutral level of carry, the contract may start to find increased selling interest. Also, weekly stochastics are near 90% or higher indicating a sharply overbought situation.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.82, down 18 cents for the week. While the NSI.X trends sideways between resistance at the recent high of $10.08 and support near $9.56, weekly stochastics continue to indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up with the next target $10.66. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $14.97 through the low of $8.50. National average basis was calculated Friday evening at about 49 cents under (the January contract), roughly 1-cent weaker for the week. The 5-year average is 43 cents under.

Soybeans (old-crop): The January contract closed 16.75cts lower at $10.30 1/2. While the futures contract continues to consolidate between resistance at $10.54 1/4 and support at $10.19 3/4, weekly stochastics show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. However, these same stochastics are nearing a minor bearish crossover that would confirm a move to a sideways trend. Recent pressure has come from both commercial traders, indicated by the strengthening carry in the market's forward curve (though still at a neutral level of full commercial carry), and noncommercial activity. Friday's CFTC report showed the latter group reducing their net-long futures position 226 contracts due to an increase in their short holdings of 5,654 contracts.

Soybeans (new-crop): The November contract closed 2.25cts lower at $10.17 1/2. Weekly stochastics indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Resistance remains between $10.29 and $10.43 3/4, prices that mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $12.32 through the low of $9.27 1/2. The carry in the November (2015) to January (2016) futures spread closed last week at 5 3/4 cents, still at a neutral to bullish level of total cost of carry. This would indicate that the contract should extend its rally to the 50% retracement level of $10.79 3/4, if not the 61.8% to 67% retracement range between $11.15 3/4 and $11.30 1/2 longer-term.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $6.71, up 26 cents for the week. While the secondary trend remains up, the fact the SR.X posted a sharp sell-off from its test of resistance at $6.17 could be indicating the cash market is establishing a peak. Weekly stochastics remain above 90%, indicating a sharply overbought situation, and nearing a bearish crossover. If the secondary trend does turn down initial support is pegged between $5.57 and $5.48, prices that mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the ongoing uptrend from $4.25 through last week's high of $6.23.

SRW Wheat (old-crop): The March Chicago contract closed 25.75cts higher at $6.32 1/4 last week. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the March contract fell hard late in the week after testing resistance near $6.67 1/2. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $7.76 through the low of $4.80. Weekly stochastics remain above the overbought level of 80% but could dip back below and see a bearish crossover if the market sees follow-through selling this coming week. If so the secondary trend would turn sideways with support pegged between $6.12 and $5.79. These prices mark the 33% and 50% retracement levels of the current secondary uptrend. Support for the major (long-term) uptrend should continue to come from the bullish commercial outlook indicated by the weak carry in the old-crop futures spread and strong national average basis (calculated at 31 cents under, near the 5-year high of 30 cents under). Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders showed the noncommercial net-long position increased by 15,152 contracts from both short-covering (7,280 contracts) and new buying (7,872 contracts).

SRW Wheat (new-crop): The July Chicago contract closed 26.50cts higher at $6.34 1/4 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the July Chicago contract between resistance levels at $6.29 1/4 and $6.73 1/2. These prices mark the 50% and 67% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $7.62 through the low of $4.96 1/2. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, with additional support coming from the solid uptrend (weakening carry) in the new-crop July to September (Chicago) futures spread. This spread closed Friday at 7 cents, the weakest its carry has been since the week of May 27. Next resistance in the spread is between 3 1/4 cents and 2 1/2 cents.

Last Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders were report showed positions as of Tuesday, December 16.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Posted at 9:09AM CST 12/21/14 by Darin Newsom
 

Saturday 12/20/14

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.47 lower at $61.38. The spot-month contract posted a new low of $58.50 last week, a test of major (long-term) support at $57.96, indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. However, the spot-month contract also posted a solid rally off its low hinting at a possible spike reversal. Both weekly and monthly stochastics remain well below the oversold level of 20%.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.29 lower at $56.52. Similar to the Brent market, the spot-month WTI contract posted a new low of $53.60, a test of major (long-term) support pegged at $51.91, before rallying to close out the week. Both weekly and monthly stochastics remain well below the oversold level of 20%, indicating the market could establish a bullish crossover in the weeks ahead.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 5.38cts lower at $1.9622. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down despite weekly stochastics continuing to show the market is sharply oversold. The spot-month contract posted a new low of $1.9264, testing major (long-term) support between $1.9827 and $1.8727. These prices mark the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the previous major uptrend from $1.1252 through the high of $3.3700.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 3.78cts lower at $1.5595. The secondary (intermediate-term) remains down despite weekly stochastics continuing to show the market is in a sharply oversold situation. The spot-month contract posted a new low of $1.5138, moving toward a test of next major (long-term) support at $1.4208. This price marks the 76.4% retracement level of the previous major uptrend from $0.7850 through the high of $3.4789.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 0.331cts lower at $3.464, posting a bearish outside week in the process. Not only did the spot-month contract trade (and close) $3.585, it also settled below previous support at $3.541. While the weekly chart shows more pressure should be expected, the market is testing major (long-term) at $3.431. This price marks the 67% retracement level of the previous major uptrend from $1.902 through the high of $6.493.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 0.35ct higher at $0.5325. The cash market held the previous week's low of $0.5225 before posting a higher close. Weekly stochastics established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%, a confirming signal to the one from the week of May 19, 2014. This would indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend could be set to turn up.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Posted at 8:06AM CST 12/20/14 by Darin Newsom
 

Tuesday 12/16/14

Another Thelma-and-Louise Pattern in Crude Oil

2014's sharp sell-off in crude oil brings to mind the Thelma-and-Louise pattern (driving off a cliff) seen back in 2008. I'm sure most of you recall that move, the one that started with a bearish key reversal on the monthly chart in July after posting a new high of $147.27 and ended with a bullish crossover by monthly stochastics at the end of April 2009.

Source: DTN ProphetX

On the 18th of that December 2008, my Technically Speaking post (can't believe I've been blogging this long) was titled "Crude Oil's Search for Support". I've attached the original below today's post. In it I talked of how the spot-month contract had blown through technical price support at key retracement levels, opening the door to a test of possible support at a series of previous lows (November 2002 through April 2003) at roughly $25.00. Beyond that was the low from November 2001 of $16.70.

As events would play out, the market posted its low of $32.48 that December (2008), starting a rally that lasted through the high of $114.83 in May 2011 when another bearish key reversal was posted. It is that previous uptrend ($32.48 through $114.83) that set the retracement levels we've been dealing with during the 2014 Thelma-and-Louise sequel.

A look at the chart shows that I've added a couple of Fibonacci retracement levels. The first, the 23.6% retracement line of $95.40 had repeatedly been broken since the May 2011 peak, the last time this past August. As expected, the 38.2% retracement level performed relatively well during the sideways to down period from May 2011 through August 2014, though there were breaches down to the 50% retracement level between August 2011 and October 2011, then again in June 2012.

This year though, the market didn't stop at the 50% retracement level, or the 61.8% retracement level of $63.94. In fact, neither of those even caused the market to pause momentarily (figuratively speaking, this being a monthly chart). The last potential line of support before a full retracement back to $32.48 is projected would be the 76.4% level of $51.91. This week has seen the spot-month contract post a low of $53.60, showing few signs of slowing.

But possible signs of a turn there are. Recall that back in 2009 it was the slow establishment of a bullish crossover by monthly stochastics (the faster moving blue line crossing above the slower moving red line, with both below the oversold level of 20%) that started the market on its major (long-term) uptrend. This time around we again find monthly stochastics (second study) below the 20% line, so far below both are in single digits. Though no bullish crossover is being indicated as we cross the mid-point of December, the flow of investment money out of crude oil seems to have slowed to a trickle.

Take note of the blue histogram (bottom study). This shows the noncommercial net-futures position pulled from weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders reports at the end of each month. Notice that in December 2014 this group has increased its net-long futures position slightly since the end of November, from 253,001 contracts to last Friday's reported (for the previous Tuesday's positions) 261,776 contracts. Keep in mind though that these positions are again as of Tuesday, the week of the reports, meaning the sharp sell-off seen Monday and Tuesday of this week could result in a lower net-long futures position.

So what might the future of crude oil hold? Recalling Newton's First Law of Motion applied to trend analysis (A trending market will stay in that trend until acted upon by an outside force.), and assuming increased noncommercial buying interest could be that force, crude oil could be nearing its low with this test of support at $51.91. Again, monthly stochastics are well below the oversold level of 20% with little room to decrease.

But a full retracement isn't out of the question either since the nearby futures spread (third study, green line) also remains in a downtrend (strengthening carry/contango, an increasingly bearish view of market fundamentals). The bottom line is there seems to be no rush by anyone to be the first in line to buy crude oil.

Technically Speaking blog post from December 18, 2008:

Crude Oil's Search for Support

Aquick look at the continuous monthly chart in crude oil shows how the current selloff has shown a lack of interest in technical support areas. As the market moved into free fall mode in July 2008 the spot-month contract easily and seemingly without hesitation moved through projected support levels at the 33 percent, 50 percent, and 67 percent retracement levels. While some would argue that it discredits technical analysis as a whole, I believe it proves how powerful a market can become in the midst of a strong change in trend.

In a situation like this, it is often best to throw out most technical analysis tools and look for simple support (or resistance) levels. That being the case a line of support can be drawn at $40 (the low from December 2004) then at $25 (a series of lows from November 2002 through April 2003). Wednesday's session - as well as the subsequent overnight session - saw the spot-month January contract trade below $40 as it established a low of $39.19. While a small rally wouldn't be that surprising, this break of support would indicate the market should ultimately test the next level of support at $25.

But will that price hold? A look at the nearby futures spread chart at the bottom of the continuous monthly chart shows crude oil to be in as bearish a supply and demand situation that has ever been seen in the futures market. The nearby futures spread is trading near the $4.50 carry (contango) level as compared to the 22 cent carry in April 2004 and the slight inverse (backwardation) seen back in late 2002/early 2003.

That would seem to indicate that $25 may just be another mile marker on the path lower in crude oil. Realistically it is hard to imagine the market going much lower but if it does, then analysts will have start looking at the next low of $16.70 in November 2001.

P.S. - The $25 target is not something new. Back in November in a CNBC interview I laid out the argument for this price target if the $40 support level gave way. While it seemed a bit unbelieveable to many at the time, it is becoming closer to reality. See the interview on the attached link: http://www.cnbc.com/…

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter:www.twitter.com\Darin Newsom

Posted at 9:26AM CST 12/16/14 by Darin Newsom
Comments (1)
China's slowing economic growth has been reason given for declining economic growth in the past. Low oil prices should/could/might help their economy as much or more then it is helping ours. (Some are projected a 0.3% increase in our GDP.) China imports something like 90% of the amount the US imported (2013 data). The Rubble is a mess. They have raised interest rates 6.50% overnight. The currency continued to decline. The value against the dollar has dropped in half since June. It would seem to make sense for the Russian farmers to hold grain production (dollar based) to protect their financial position, a move similar to the Argentinean farmers. (Iâ?™m not sure they are able to do this.) These two situations might be long term positive for commodities. Geopolitical events are trumping fundamentals. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 1:21PM CST 12/16/14
 

Monday 12/15/14

Weekly Analysis: Livestock Markets

Live Cattle: The February contract closed $2.700 lower at $162.15 last week after. The contract moved below last week's low, the previous four-week low, of $164.425 extending the recently established (week of November 24) secondary (intermediate-term) downtrend. That same week saw weekly stochastics establish a bearish crossover, also indicating the secondary trend has turned down. Initial support is pegged near $158.15, the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from the contract low of $128.85 through the recent contract high of $172.75.

Feeder Cattle: The January contract closed $9.275 lower at $225.60 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down with weekly stochastics bearish and the futures contract moving below support $225.75. Initial support is pegged near $215.35, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the uptrend from the contract low of $167.40 through the contract high of $239.30, though stronger support is seen at the 50% retracement level of $203.35.

Lean hogs: The February contract closed $2.375 lower at $83.25 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down as the futures contract tests support near $83.25. This price marks the 61.8% retracement level of the uptrend from the contract low of $72.95 through the contract high of $99.925. However with weekly stochastics still bearish, indicating a possible extension of the secondary downtrend, the February contract could look to test the 67% retracement level near $88.95 in the near future.

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.72, up 12 cents for the week. Despite weekly stochastics showing the cash market in an overbought situation, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The NCIX closed at its weekly high, with the next target $3.84. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.86 through the low of $2.81. The commercial side of the market continues to grow more bullish with national average basis holding steady at 35 cents under last week while the nearby March to May futures spread saw its carry weaken slightly to 8 1/4 cents. This is roughly 67% of calculated full cost of carry, a slightly bearish level.

Soybean meal: The January contract closed $0.60 higher last week at $367.00. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with the January contract testing resistance between $365.80 and $371.50. These prices mark the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the previous secondary downtrend from $410.30 through the low of $293.70. Weekly stochastics are neutral, confirming the sideways trend. The January to March futures spread remains inverted, though its downtrend indicates a less bullish commercial outlook. Initial support is between $363.90 and $358.70.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter:www.twitter.com\Darin Newsom


Commodity trading is very complicated and the risk of loss is substantial. The author does not engage in any commodity trading activity for his own account or for others. The information provided is general, and is NOT a substitute for your own independent business judgment or the advice of a registered Commodity Trading Adviser.

Posted at 5:06AM CST 12/15/14 by Darin Newsom
 

Sunday 12/14/14

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.72, up 12 cents for the week. Despite weekly stochastics showing the cash market in an overbought situation, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The NCIX closed at its weekly high, with the next target $3.84. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.86 through the low of $2.81. The commercial side of the market continues to grow more bullish with national average basis holding steady at 35 cents under last week while the nearby March to May futures spread saw its carry weaken slightly to 8 1/4 cents. This is roughly 67% of calculated full cost of carry, a slightly bearish level.

Corn (Old-crop): The March contract closed 12.50cts higher at $4.07 1/2. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the March contract finishing last week above technical price resistance at $4.04. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $5.23 through the low of $3.30 1/2. The next target is the 50% retracement level of $4.26 3/4. If tested, this would close a bearish price gap from the week of July 7. However, weekly stochastics are above 80% indicating an overbought situation. With the carry in the March to May futures spread holding at a slightly bearish 67% of calculated full cost of carry, the March contract could soon show signs of establishing a short-term top.

Corn (New-crop): The December contract closed 9.0cts higher at $4.31 3/4. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the December contract testing resistance near $4.34. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.04 through the low of $3.64 1/4. Given that the December 2015 to March 2016 continues to show a neutral level of carry, the contract may start to find increased selling interest. Also, weekly stochastics are near 90% or higher indicating a sharply overbought situation.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $10.00, up 12 cents for the week. Weekly stochastics indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, with its initial price target at $10.66. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $14.97 through the low of $8.50. Both national average basis (48 cents under) and the carry in the nearby January to March futures spread (6 1/2 cents, or roughly 44% of calculated total cost of carry) both reflect a neutral commercial outlook.

Soybeans (old-crop): The January contract closed 11.25cts higher at $10.47 1/4. While the futures contract looks to be consolidating between resistance at $10.54 1/4 and support at $10.19 3/4, weekly stochastics continue to show the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up. The carry in the January to March futures spread closed last week at a neutral 6 1/2 cents, indicating the Jan contract should extend its uptrend to the next target near $10.98. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $12.84 through the low of $9.12 1/4.

Soybeans (new-crop): The November contract closed 6.00cts higher at $10.19 3/4. Weekly stochastics indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, with the futures contract testing resistance between $10.29 and $10.43 3/4. These prices mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $12.32 through the low of $9.27 1/2. The carry in the November (2015) to January (2016) futures spread closed last week at 5 1/2, reflecting a neutral to bullish commercial outlook. This would indicate that the contract should extend its rally to the 50% retracement level of $10.79 3/4, if not the 61.8% to 67% retracement range between $11.15 3/4 and $11.30 1/2 longer-term.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.76, up 12 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the SR.X posting a bullish outside week last week (traded outside the previous week's range before closing higher, and above the previous week's high). The close of $5.76 was above resistance at $5.68, the 50% resistance level of the previous downtrend from $7.11 through the low of $4.25. The next target is the 67% retracement level of $6.17, though weekly stochastics are already well above the overbought level of 80%.

SRW Wheat (old-crop): The March Chicago contract closed 12.50cts higher at $5.72 3/4 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the next target $6.28. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the downtrend from $7.76 through the low of $4.80. Support continues to come from the commercial side of the market with the March to May futures spread in a strong uptrend (weakening carry) and national average basis closing at 31 cents under last week. This would imply that the March contract could extend its rally to the 67% retracement level near $6.77 1/2.

SRW Wheat (new-crop): The July Chicago contract closed 5.50cts higher at $6.07 3/4 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the next target at $6.29 1/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $7.62 through the low of $4.96 1/2. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, indicating the contract should be able to extend its uptrend in the coming weeks. The July to September futures spread remains in an uptrend (weakening carry), closing at 8 cents last week.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Posted at 11:05AM CST 12/14/14 by Darin Newsom
 
Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $7.22 lower at $61.85. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down despite weekly stochastics continuing to show a sharply oversold situation. The spot-month contract is well below major (long-term) support at $66.90, trading at levels not seen since May 2009.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $8.03 lower at $57.81. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down despite weekly stochastics continuing to show a sharply oversold situation. The spot-month contract is below major (long-term) price support at $63.94, closing at a level not seen since May 2009.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 9.18cts lower at $2.0160. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down despite weekly stochastics continuing to show the market is sharply oversold. The spot-month contract is testing major (long-term) support at $1.9827, a price that marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous major uptrend from $1.1252 through the high of $3.3700.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 17.61cts lower at $1.5973. The secondary (intermediate-term) remains down despite weekly stochastics continuing to show the market is in a sharply oversold situation. The spot-month is below major (long-term) support at $1.6740, closing at a level not seen since May 2009.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 0.007cts lower at $3.795. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with support at $3.541 and resistance at $4.469. The major (long-term) trend is also sideways with support between $3.656 and $3.431.

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Posted at 7:18AM CST 12/14/14 by Darin Newsom
 

Saturday 12/13/14

US Dollar Index: Puttin' on Its Top Hat

One of the things I talked about in my annual market outlook presented at the recently concluded DTN/The Progressive Farmer Ag Summit was the fate of the U.S. dollar index (USDX). With little to no fundamental basis, I asserted, the index looked like it could be nearing a major (long-term) move to a downtrend. This was based solely on technical signals being established on its monthly chart. Often, changes have to occur on shorter-term charts (weekly, daily) that create ripple effects seen later in monthly patterns. This past week may be those first steps in the USDX.

Source: DTN ProphetX

As its weekly chart shows, activity the last two weeks (red circled area) could prove pivotal in the direction of the U.S. dollar index. Two weeks ago the USDX posted a new high of 89.467, closing near its high at 89.334. Then this past week saw the USDX post another new high of 89.550 before falling to a low of 87.913 and closing at 88.321. Those familiar with this blog will immediately ask, "Did it establish a key bearish reversal?" knowing that is one of the important turn signals I look for. The answer is no. Last week's low did not take out the previous week's 87.783, but there is another reason to take a close look at these last two weeks.

In his book "Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets" author John J. Murphy describes a number of different reversal patterns, beyond the key reversal I mentioned earlier. Another is the two-day reversal, or in this case, the two-week reversal given my preference for weekly charts over daily charts (from page 97, "Weekly reversals are much more significant than daily reversals for obvious reasons and are watched closely by chartists as signaling important turning points.")

A classic two-week bearish reversal has these characteristics: 1) A market sets a new high (Check!) 2) The market closes that week near the new high (Check!) 3) The next week the market opens near unchanged (Check!) before closing near the previous week's low (Check?).

The debate between USDX bulls and bears will be whether or not the weekly settlement of 88.321 is near enough to the previous week's low of 87.783 to be considered "near". Murphy answers this question, again on page 97, "The secret is being able to determine when a reversal day (my comment: week, or pattern) is important and when it's not. This judgment can only be made, however, when all other technical evidence has been reviewed."

Murphy is absolutely correct. We often will see a pattern that goes unconfirmed by other technical indicators, raising doubts as to its strength or accuracy. So what other evidence do we have that the USDX may have established a two-week top?

Take a look at weekly stochastics (bottom study), a momentum indicator I use to look for changes in market attitude. Note that this past week saw stochastics finish with the faster moving blue line at 87.98% while the slower moving red line was at 91.93%. To me, this creates a bearish crossover since both are above the overbought level of 80%. Also note that this past week's crossover is a secondary, or confirming, signal to the higher bearish crossover (blue line 93.14%, red line 95.4%) posted the week of October 6. This strengthens the argument that the USDX has established a secondary (intermediate-term) top.

But there will undoubtedly be some market watchers out there wanting more conclusive evidence, again due to the question of is near near enough. For them the key might be a move to a new four-week low, another important reversal signal. To do so next week the USDX would need to slide below 87.182 (dashed red line), the low from the week of November 17.

My opinion is that the USDX has established a secondary top, with the move to a new four-week low a formality. Initial support is pegged at 86.006, the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from 78.906 through this past week's high of 89.550. However, an extended sell-off back to the 50% retracement level of 84.228 is likely. And if that occurs in December, the monthly chart I talked about at Ag Summit gets a whole lot more interesting. The USDX would then have established a major (long-term) key bearish reversal (taking out both ends of the November price range before closing lower for the month) and probably a bearish crossover by monthly stochastics above 80%.

Stay tuned.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter:www.twitter.com\Darin Newsom

Posted at 8:34AM CST 12/13/14 by Darin Newsom
 

Sunday 11/30/14

Monthly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Futures): The December contract closed at $3.88 3/4, 12cts higher for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains up. Initial resistance is pegged at $4.43 1/2, the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $8.49 (high from August 2012) through the October 2014 low of $3.18 1/4. Monthly stochastics are growing more bullish indicating the market could continue to extend its rally.

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.48, up 12 cents for the month. The trend of the market has turned up, putting the long-term price target near $4.90. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $8.26 (August 2012) through $2.81 (October 2014). Initial resistance could be found near the 23.6% retracement level of $4.10. Monthly stochastics are growing mover bullish after the bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% established at the end of October.

Soybeans (Futures): The January contract closed at $10.16, 33.25cts lower for the month. Despite the lower close the major (long-term) trend remains up. The initial long-term price target remains $12.43, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $17.89 (September 2012 high) through the low of $9.04 (October 2014). The market's bullish forward curve would imply an eventual test of the 50% retracement level of $13.47 1/4.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.66, down 20cts for the month. The cash market continues to wait on the establishment of a bullish crossover by monthly stochastics, meaning the NSI.X could continue to consolidate over the coming months. If so support remains near $9.05.

SRW Wheat (Futures): The March Chicago contract closed at $5.78 1/2, 46cts higher for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains up. The market is testing initial resistance at $5.79 3/4, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous sell-off from $9.47 1/4 (high from July 2012) through $4.66 1/4 (September 2014 low). The 38.2% retracement level is up at $6.50.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.44, up $0.51 for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains up with an initial price target near $5.88. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous sell-off from $39. with an initial price target near $5.88. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous sell-off from $9.14 (July 2012 high) through $4.28 (September 2014 low).

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter:www.twitter.com\Darin Newsom


Commodity trading is very complicated and the risk of loss is substantial. The author does not engage in any commodity trading activity for his own account or for others. The information provided is general, and is NOT a substitute for your own independent business judgment or the advice of a registered Commodity Trading Adviser.

Posted at 3:54PM CST 11/30/14 by Darin Newsom
 
Monthly Analysis: Livestock Markets

Live Cattle: The February contract closed at $169.225, up $3.175 for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains up as the February contract established a new high of $172.75 in November. Monthly stochastics are near the 90% level, continuing to indicate the same overbought situation that has been in place for months. While the February to April futures spread continues to reflect a bullish commercial outlook, this spread did weaken during November.

Feeder Cattle: The January contract closed at $231.075, up $0.575 for the month. The January contract consolidated during November, keeping alive the bearish crossover by monthly stochastics at the end of October. This would continue to indicate that the major (long-term) trend has turned down. However, monthly stochastics have posted similar crossovers before without establishing a downtrend. Initial support is at the October low of $230.10.

Lean Hogs: The February contract closed at $88.225, up $0.20 for the month. The major (long-term) trend is down, building on the bearish reversal seen at the end of July 2014. With monthly stochastics nearing the oversold level of 20% the market could look to test its October low of $86.15. Beyond that is support at the January 2014 low of $84.50.

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.48, up 12 cents for the month. The trend of the market has turned up, putting the long-term price target near $4.90. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $8.26 (August 2012) through $2.81 (October 2014). Initial resistance could be found near the 23.6% retracement level of $4.10. Monthly stochastics are growing mover bullish after the bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% established at the end of October.

Soybean meal: The January contract closed at $366.30, down $22.70 for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains up following the establishment of a bullish key reversal during October 2014. However, the market ran into initial resistance near $418.40, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $541.80 (September 2012 high) through the October low of $295.10. Monthly stochastics could look to move back below the oversold level of 20%, meaning the market could test support between $356.40 and $335.90.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter:www.twitter.com\Darin Newsom

Posted at 3:15PM CST 11/30/14 by Darin Newsom
 
Monthly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $69.73, down $15.71 for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains down with support between $71.42 and 66.90. These prices mark the 61.8% and 67% retracement levels of the previous uptrend from $36.20 (low from December 2008) through $128.40 (high from March 2012). Monthly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20% indicating the market could begin to stabilize.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $66.15, down $14.39 for the month. The major (long-term) trend is down with the spot-month contract testing support at $63.94. This price marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $32.48 (December 2008) through $114.83 (May 2011). Monthly stochastics are below the oversold level of 20%. The spot-month contract could look to stabilize between the 61.8% retracement level and the 67% retracement level of $59.90.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed at $2.1612, down 35.33cts for the month. The major (long-term) trend is down with the spot-month contract below support at $2.2476. This price marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $1.1252 (March 2009) through $3.37 (January 2014). Monthly stochastics have fallen into single digits indicating a sharply oversold situation. The spot-month contract could look to gravitate back toward support at the 50% retracement level.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed at $1.8276, down 34.19cts for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains down with support pegged at $1.8141. This price marks the 61% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.7850 (December 2008) through $3.4789 (April 2011).

However, monthly stochastics are holding above the oversold level of 20%, meaning the market could test the 67% retracement level of $1.6740.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed at $4.088, up 21.5cts for the month. The major (long-term) trend remains sideways. The last major signal established by monthly stochastics was a bullish crossover at the end of May 2012. The rally and subsequent interim peak did not create a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter:www.twitter.com\Darin Newsom

Posted at 2:48PM CST 11/30/14 by Darin Newsom
 

Monday 11/24/14

Weekly Analysis: Livestock Markets

Live Cattle: The February contract closed $0.875 higher at $172.15 last week after establishing a new high of $172.75. While the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up, the market is sharply overbought with stochastics approaching upper 90% levels. However, noncommercial traders continue to buy with Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showing this group adding 6,917 contracts to their net-long futures holdings; increasing their long futures by 6,080 contracts while reducing their short futures by 837 contracts.

Feeder Cattle: The January contract closed $0.225 higher at $236.35 last week. Its inability to move to a new high beyond the previous $239.20 leaves Jan feeders vulnerable to increased selling interest. Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders reduced their net-long futures position by 513 contracts by adding 175 long and 688 short futures contracts. Weekly stochastics remain above the overbought level of 80%.

Lean hogs: The February contract closed $2.30 lower at $90.45 last week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with resistance between $91.60 and $94.40, prices that mark the 50% and 67% retracement levels of the sell-off from $99.925 through the low of $83.30. Support remains near $86.50, the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $72.95 through the $99.925 high. However, if the contract rejoins its secondary downtrend another test of the 61.8% retracement level near $83.25 is possible.

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.41, down 4 cents for the week. Despite the lower weekly close, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The NCI.X continues to hold above support at $3.27, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the initial rally from the low of $2.81 through the recent high of $3.33. Resistance remains at $3.50, the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.86 through the $2.81 low. Given the bearishness of the carry in the December to May forward curve, it could be difficult for the NCI.X to push much past this resistance level.

Soybean meal: The December contract closed $1.50 lower last week at $378.40. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to have turned sideways with resistance at the recent high of $417.60 and support between $376.80 and $370.80. These prices mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the uptrend from $295.10 through the $417.60 high. While the inverted forward curve continues to show a bullish commercial outlook, both the December to January and January to March spreads have established downtrends (weakening inverses) recently.

Last Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders were report showed positions as of Tuesday, November 18.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter:www.twitter.com\Darin Newsom


Commodity trading is very complicated and the risk of loss is substantial. The author does not engage in any commodity trading activity for his own account or for others. The information provided is general, and is NOT a substitute for your own independent business judgment or the advice of a registered Commodity Trading Adviser.

Posted at 5:07AM CST 11/24/14 by Darin Newsom
Comments (1)
Darrin, Wondering the relationship of USD and Canadian dollar. Back in 90's when the USD was strong and at a premium to Canadian dollar. Their were many hogs and cattle coming down to US. What are your thoughts currently and is the Canadian dollar rising along with USD this time.
Posted by SCOTT HENDRICKSON at 3:08PM CST 11/25/14
 

Sunday 11/23/14

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.41, down 4 cents for the week. Despite the lower weekly close, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The NCI.X continues to hold above support at $3.27, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the initial rally from the low of $2.81 through the recent high of $3.33. Resistance remains at $3.50, the 33% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $4.86 through the $2.81 low. Given the bearishness of the carry in the December to May forward curve, it could be difficult for the NCI.X to push much past this resistance level.

Corn (Futures): The nearby December contract closed 9.00cts lower at $3.72 3/4 while the more active March contract was 9.00cts lower at $3.85 1/4. Despite the lower weekly close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Both contracts have held support near $3.69 3/4 and $3.74 1/4 respectively. However, resistance in the December is pegged near $3.84 1/2 and in the March between $3.94 1/2 and $4.04. Given the bearishness of the carry in the December to May forward curve, these resistance areas could spark increased selling interest in the weeks to come while possibly establishing a turn to a secondary downtrend.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $9.88, up 21 cents for the week. The NSI.X looks to have reestablished its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, though needs a move to a new 4-week high above $10.08 to confirm. Its initial upside target remains $10.66, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $14.97 through the low of $8.50. However, given the neutral level of carry in the January to May forward curve the NSI.X could extend its rally to the 50% retracement level of $11.74.

Soybeans (Futures): The January contract closed 16.50cts higher at $10.39 after holding its test of support at $9.99 1/4. This price marks the 50% retracement of the initial rally from $9.12 1/4 through the previous week's high of $10.86 1/4. Given the late week rally, combined with indications from weekly stochastics, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Resistance remains between $10.54 1/4 and $10.98, prices that mark the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $12.84 through the $9.12 1/4 low. Neutral carry in the market's forward curve would imply another test of the 50% retracement level is possible.

Wheat (Cash): The DTN National SRW Wheat Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $5.14, down 10 cents for the week. Despite the lower close the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Initial resistance is at $5.20, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $7.11 through the low of $4.25. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, indicating a possible extension of the uptrend to a test of the 50% retracement level of $5.68.

SRW Wheat (Futures): The nearby December Chicago contract closed 13.25cts lower at $5.47 1/4 last week. The more active March contract was 9 1/4cts lower at $5.53 1/4. Despite the lower closes the trend secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Initial resistance is pegged near $5.65 3/4 in the December and $5.78 1/2 in the March, prices that mark the 33% retracement levels of the previous downtrends for both contracts. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, but indicate the market could move into a consolidation phase if futures contracts find renewed selling at these resistance levels.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Posted at 10:23AM CST 11/23/14 by Darin Newsom
 

Saturday 11/22/14

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.95 higher at $80.36. Though hard to get a read on weekly signals, the secondary (intermediate-term) trend may have turned sideways last week. The spot-month contract stayed within the previous week's range while weekly stochastics remain below the oversold level of 20%. However the major (long-term) trend is down with support at $71.42, a price that marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $36.20 through the high of $128.40.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $0.69 higher at $76.51. As with Brent crude, patterns on the weekly WTI chart are heavily influenced by the market's major (long-term) downtrend. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned sideways with the spot-month contract holding within the previous week's trading range. Lows the last two weeks of $73.25 and $73.88 have tested major support at $73.66, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $32.48 through the high of $144.83.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 1.16cts lower at $2.4045. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down despite the spot-month holding above the previous week's low of $2.3480. Major (long-term) support is at $2.2276, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $1.1252 through the high of $3.3300.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 1.40cts higher at $2.0565. The secondary (intermediate-term) remains down despite the consolidation by the spot-month contract last week. Long-term monthly stochastics are still bearish with next major support at $1.8141, a price that marks the 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $0.7850 through the high of $3.4789.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 24.6cts higher at $4.266. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up despite last week's consolidation by the spot-month contract. Resistance remains at $4.669, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous secondary downtrend from $6.493 through the low of $3.541. The major (long-term) trend remains up as well.

To track my thoughts on the markets throughout the day, follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

Posted at 8:01AM CST 11/22/14 by Darin Newsom
 

Wednesday 11/19/14

Sub-$74 Crude Oil

Those watching the crude oil market closely have seen the spot-month contract dip below $74 per barrel, posting a low of $73.25 last week and $73.88 Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. The last time the spot-month crude oil contract was this low was back in September 2010 when it posted a low of $71.67, a high of $80.18, and closed at $79.97 on its way to the eventual high of $114.83 in May 2011.

Source: DTN ProphetX

Since then the crude oil market has posted a wide trading range, but largely been viewed as moving in major (long-term) sideways trend. A look at the monthly chart shows that after posting its May 2011, part of a key bearish reversal the spot-month contract fell to a low of $74.95 in October 2011. Again notice that a bullish key reversal was established, leading to a test of the previous high in March 2012 (high of $110.55).

After that, the market has been a picture perfect example of consolidation, including its monthly stochastics (second study).

That is until recently. This past July saw another bearish crossover occur in monthly stochastics, below the overbought level of 80% but reigniting the major downtrend that began with the one occurring above the 80% level at the end of May 2011. August saw the spot-month contract move to a new 4-month low of $92.50, a move that triggered the slide back to test major support levels first at $83.37 then $73.66. These prices mark the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the previous major uptrend from $32.48 (December 2008 low) through the $114.83 high.

The question now is will the 50% level hold this sell-off? Monthly stochastics have moved below the oversold level of 20% but remain possibly months away from establishing a major bullish crossover. This means that the 50% retracement level of $73.66 could hold for a while, but the continued bearishness of the market's supply and demand situation could lead to a test of the 61.8% retracement level of $63.94.

Bearish supply and demand, you ask? The nearby futures spread (bottom study, green line) is sitting at only a small contango/carry in November. Given DTN analysis, wouldn't bearish fundamentals result in a much stronger contango in the market's forward curve (series of futures spreads)? The answer, in true commodity analyst fashion, is both yes and no.

The ongoing sell-off in crude oil created a short-term change in market dynamics. The underlying supply and demand situation is so bearish long-term, traders put increased pressure on deferred futures contracts. This led to the market actually showing backwardation/inverse in its forward curve until just recently. However, a look at the spreads weekly close only chart (not shown, but in DTN's Market Strategy) shows a strong downtrend indicating that this key indicator is moving back in line with traditional analysis.

Is a $63.94 target possible? Technically yes; realistically, probably not. OPEC remains the wild card. Recently the cartel has said it is "comfortable" with price levels, seeing no need to cut production. This has the Brent crude market in a similar downtrend heading for its 61.8% retracement level of $71.42. At some point though, this opinion will likely change sparking renewed buying interest from the noncommercial (investment, speculative, fund, etc.) side of the market.

Posted at 7:16AM CST 11/19/14 by Darin Newsom
Comments (5)
OPEC is comfortable because they know that keeping prices low will discourage tar sands and other "tight" oil from North America which need $100/barrel to make it profitable. At these prices Canadian and North Dakota oil will dry up or be produced at a loss.
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 6:28AM CST 11/20/14
Interesting comments Jay.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 7:10AM CST 11/20/14
I had a question come in via email: What was the price of gas at the pump when crude oil was this low 4 years ago? I looked up a couple of different prices for the answer. First, the national spot RBOB gasoline price ranged between $2.18 and $2.04 in September 2010 before closing the month near $2.11. Wednesday's close saw the same national spot RBOB gasoline priced at $2.19. As for the price at the pump, a data set shows the national average cash price in the low $2.70s, while Wednesday's national average cash price for regular gas was roughly $2.86.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 8:03AM CST 11/20/14
There are many different reasons for gasoline prices varying from crude. One is that refineries have to shut down for repairs or even sometimes have accidents that keep them shutdown for a time. Of course when they shutdown there is an abundance of crude.
Posted by Jay Mcginnis at 8:53PM CST 11/20/14
If the U.S. is still importing 3M bpd I'm sure we do not have an abundance of oil? Do we? What happens to ethanol at $64 oil?
Posted by Roger Cooper at 8:32PM CST 11/23/14
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