Making no excuses for my absence, but now that the speaking season is basically over I will devote more time to this blog. As always, I appreciate your patience and look forward to your parcitipation. To get into the swing of things, I'm going to throw out a number of random thoughts, with most of them having to do with technical analysis. However, this weekend I will take a look at chart implications of Thursday's sell-off.
Market to Market: I will be on the IPTV program this weekend visiting with host Mike Pearson about - you guessed it - USDA's latest round of reports. I thought it was a good coversation and look forward to your thoughts as well. Check your local listings for when the progam airs, or check it out on line at: http://www.iptv.org/….
USDA: As you can tell by the tone of my column this week ("What a Fool Believes") the Quarterly Stocks report has sparked a great deal of introspection on my part. Was the corn number too big? Maybe not given all the fundamental evidence available (nonexistent exports, monthly decreases in cattle on feed placements resulting in falling feed demand, slow ethanol demand over the winter, etc.). My biggest concern is the divergence between what could be reality and what futures spreads have been showing since last harvest.
My plan for columns over the coming weeks is to take a look at what seems to be another important shift in market dynamics. Yes, high-frequency computer trade driven by headlines has been an issue for years, but Thursday's reaction to USDA's numbers seems to have raised the bar.
Speaking of travel season, as always I had the opportunity to meet too many wonderful people to mention them speaking in all four directions (northern Iowa, southern Illinois, western Indiana, and eastern Nebraska). As the season progressed, my topic more often than not was of the possible demise of corn's demand market in 2013. Another aspect of the March Quarterly Stocks report is that it is another indication that the end may be fast approaching. Weather and the 2013 crop will likely cast the final vote, but the warning sirens are growing too loud to ignore.
As I said earlier, I look forward to your comments on blogs, columns, speaking engagements, webinars, etc.
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