Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Tuesday 10/29/13

"If You Give a Mouse a Cookie" Corn Could Turn Bullish Again
One of the least surprising charts I look at is the monthly (long-term) corn chart.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:08AM CDT 10/29/13 by Darin Newsom | Post a Comment
Comments (4)
Some of you may not know, but "If You Give a Mouse a Cookie" is a children's book written by Laura Numeroff.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 10:20AM CDT 10/29/13
Jane and I read this book to all four of our daughters. "The Napping House", "Horton Hatches the Egg", and "The Very Hungry Caterpillar" were all favorites at our house. They may all be candidates for new metaphorical adventures in Newsomian Logic.
Posted by RICHARD JAMESON at 6:02PM CDT 10/29/13
Two in seven - that is our very best odds that the "Give a Mouse a Cookie" scenario can be played out. This would be targeting end stocks near 2013-14 marketing year levels for 2014-15 marketing year corn (corn yet to be planted here in the US). It would require a 155 bushel per acre yield on 92 million planted acres and what currently seems totally unrealistic use of 13.45 billion bushels. Even with next yearâ?™s ending stock coming in close this yearâ?™s one would expect corn prices to be measurably lower because next year's pipeline of supply would be filled. That was missing this year. A full pipeline would mean wider basis and/or lower futures then what is currently being experienced. A big upward price boost has a one in fifteen chance with ending stocks coming in at just over 1 billion bushels; 8.0% of use. The 50/50 or one in two year scenario would point to ending stocks of corn in the 3.0 to 3.8 billion bushel range; 23-29% of use, if corn consumption can crack the 13 billion bushel level. Our mouse friend seems to have the odds against him. He is tremendously more likely to get caught in a trap than receive his cookie. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 10:21AM CDT 10/31/13
Say farewell to storyland my friends! When the end stocks reach 2B bu. on corn we are almost halfway back to the mid 80's (remember the PIK program). Taxpayers paid us to not grow corn (four years of 3.5 to 4.9B bu. of extra corn each year respectively)! Feed use, exports, 300bu./A. yields, and fairy tales won't be able to save American agriculture! The only thing that might is more corn ethanol! Snap out of it!
Posted by Roger Cooper at 9:36PM CDT 10/31/13
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