Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Tuesday 07/29/14

Hot Cocoa and Popped Corn
The cocoa market has been a hot market for many months. The question is now will it start to cool, and what does all of this mean for corn.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:50AM CDT 07/29/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 07/28/14

The End is Near for Cotton
The December cotton contract may finally be nearing the end of its secondary downtrend.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:00AM CDT 07/28/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Sunday 07/27/14

Grain Markets: Weekly Analysis
DTN's Weekly Technical Analysis: Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat 07/27[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:40AM CDT 07/27/14 by Darin Newsom | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
There is a great deal of misinformation on Twitter following the higher open in soybeans. The market did not "gap" higher, meaning no island bottom was formed. Nevertheless, the soybean market is posting an impressive rally early in the Sunday night session. As discussed in the blog's analysis, this could lead to a secondary uptrend in soybeans this week. Stay tuned.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 7:41PM CDT 07/27/14
 

Saturday 07/26/14

Energy Markets: Weekly Analysis
DTN's Weekly Technical Analysis: Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Gasoline, and Natural Gas 07/26[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:11AM CDT 07/26/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 07/25/14

All That Glitters Isn't Gold
Recent weeks have shown the gold market may have lost its bullish luster.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:26AM CDT 07/25/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 07/24/14

Soybean Spreads: "Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes"
Soybeans spreads look to have changed direction. The question is will it last long-term.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 6:46AM CDT 07/24/14 by Darin Newsom | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
Key numbers to watch in November soybeans as we head toward Friday's close is last week's high of $11.18 3/4 and settlement of $10.85 1/4. If the Nov climbs above last week's high by the end of this week, and posts a higher weekly close, it would establish a bullish key reversal on its weekly chart. This could, I repeat could, coincide with a possible bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%. Stay tuned.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 8:57AM CDT 07/24/14
As discussed in Monday's Early Word Grain comments (07/28), recent action in soybean futures spreads indicating possible new export sales was confirmed Monday morning. USDA announced a sale of 420,000 mt U.S. soybeans and 66,000 mt of optional origin to China for the 2014-2015 marketing year.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 8:06AM CDT 07/28/14
 

Wednesday 07/23/14

The Return of the Widow Maker
This month's action prompts another look at the natural gas market.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:02AM CDT 07/23/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 07/21/14

No Friends Yet for Cash Corn
The cash corn market continues to crumble.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:04AM CDT 07/21/14 by Darin Newsom | Post a Comment
Comments (9)
Darin this record production is so blown out of the water by this corrupt USDA "estimates".This government controlled "market" is not good for farming, this is supposed to be a free country, we now more than ever need freedom from government control. God blesses us with a good crop and we have to live with "market" collapses from "estimates." Again the only hope producers have for a fair price is a disaster some where. How sick is that.
Posted by DAVID/KEVIN GRUENHAGEN at 1:33PM CDT 07/21/14
David, Kevin: Thank you for your comments. My thoughts on all things USDA are well known. I've long been a proponent of letting the market, any market, sort out its own supply and demand issues. That's one of the reasons I focus so much attention on the cash value, the intrinsic value, of a market. To me it is a better indicator of strength/weakness. In the case of corn, the fact the NCI.X has fallen to the lower 34% of its price distribution range reflects the actual old-crop supply and demand situation that exists today. What will happen when harvest rolls around is hard to say, but I still believe the cash market will be a better indicator of how large production may actually be. Thanks again for your comments.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 2:20PM CDT 07/21/14
My problem isn't with the USDA's questionable stocks and production numbers, my problem is why our Government chooses to hamper American Agriculture by broadcasting these numbers to the world. To be fair and equitable, shouldn't the Govt. broadcast new car inventories, semi-conductor inventories, rolled steel, dishwasher, refrigerator, and other manufactured goods inventories (to name a few examples). Then everyone could decide when to purchase based on over-supply or shortage.
Posted by Lewis Flohr at 9:07AM CDT 07/22/14
Good morning Lewis. I share your thoughts in that this is not, nor was it ever, something the government should be projecting. Initially, USDA reports were intended to level the playing field between producers and large commercial traders who had access to supply and demand information. However, that system fell apart as spec trade in commodities grew and prices saw increasingly volatile swings on flawed data. Today, all kinds of fundamental information is available to traders/producers/etc. As I stated in Market Matters blog, USDA should be limited to one report, looking back at the previous marketing year rather than forecasting ahead monthly. Thanks for your comments.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 9:28AM CDT 07/22/14
Are all the producers wanting government out of the forecasting business because it influences prices also in favor of getting rid of RFS which skews demand and prices? After all, government doesn't require you to purchase a new car, semi-conductors, rolled steel, dishwasher, refrigerator and other manufactured goods (to name a few examples).
Posted by David Kessler at 11:28AM CDT 07/22/14
Interesting point David. But to me it doesn't change the argument that the system would be better served by ending monthly USDA supply and demand and crop production reports, replacing with one final backward looking accounting. Did the Energy Policy Act of 2005, including the RFS, change the market? Absolutely. But it changed all aspects of the market: Supply, demand, investment interest, basis, price distribution, etc. Thank you for your comments.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 11:45AM CDT 07/22/14
It is already 1.94 cash bid from Southwest Grain in Lemmon SD
Posted by JAMIE KOUBA at 11:52PM CDT 07/22/14
Good morning Jamie. I've been watching the developments in the cash corn market in the Dakotas on DTN's Cash Bid map. There are a number of locations that are getting close to that $2.00 mark in that part of the country. Thanks for your comments.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 5:06AM CDT 07/23/14
I didnt Know corn had any friends ever. most used under priced always costly to grow
Posted by andrew mohlman at 8:18AM CDT 07/25/14
 

Sunday 07/20/14

Grain Markets: Weekly Analysis
DTN's Weekly Technical Analysis: Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat 07/20[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:15AM CDT 07/20/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Saturday 07/19/14

Energy Markets: Weekly Analysis
DTN's Weekly Technical Analysis: Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Gasoline, and Natural Gas 07/19[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:19AM CDT 07/19/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 07/18/14

Wheat's Wild, Wacky Week
The Chicago wheat market was all over the place this past week.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 3:40PM CDT 07/18/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 07/17/14

Still Some Fight Left in Nov Beans
The commercial side of the soybean market could start to flex its muscle again.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:31AM CDT 07/17/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Tuesday 07/15/14

Bearish Signals Growing Clearer in Live Cattle
Technically, warning signs are flashing for the high flying live cattle market.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:05AM CDT 07/15/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 07/14/14

Cotton Set to Turn Bullish
The downtrend in cotton could soon come to an end, according to many of the market's DTN Six Factors.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:46AM CDT 07/14/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Sunday 07/13/14

Grain Markets: Weekly Analysis
DTN's Weekly Technical Analysis: Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat 07/13[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:08AM CDT 07/13/14 by Darin Newsom | Post a Comment
Comments (4)
For additional analysis, mostly of the grain markets, here is a link to my appearance on the most recent Iowa Public Television Market to Market program: http://www.iptv.org/mtom/
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 8:34AM CDT 07/13/14
hard not to feel cheated when cost of production not covered.
Posted by andrew mohlman at 7:45AM CDT 07/14/14
darin dont forget king korn rules your dinner table and runs your car
Posted by andrew mohlman at 8:28AM CDT 07/16/14
Thanks for your comments Andrew. As you know, the analysis in "Louis Louis" is based on what is projected for corn supply and demand at this time. As stated in the piece, while supplies are expected to be cumbersome it is the 200 mb year-to-year reduction (by USDA) in demand that is the most concerning. This includes a 25 mb decrease in ethanol. As the piece concluded, none of this might come to pass. It's possible production isn't as large as expected and demand could stay stronger than projected. If so King Corn could come out of this with his head intact.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 9:14AM CDT 07/16/14
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