Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom DTN Senior Analyst

Friday 07/25/14

All That Glitters Isn't Gold
Recent weeks have shown the gold market may have lost its bullish luster.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:26AM CDT 07/25/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 07/24/14

Soybean Spreads: "Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes"
Soybeans spreads look to have changed direction. The question is will it last long-term.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 6:46AM CDT 07/24/14 by Darin Newsom | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Key numbers to watch in November soybeans as we head toward Friday's close is last week's high of $11.18 3/4 and settlement of $10.85 1/4. If the Nov climbs above last week's high by the end of this week, and posts a higher weekly close, it would establish a bullish key reversal on its weekly chart. This could, I repeat could, coincide with a possible bullish crossover by weekly stochastics below the oversold level of 20%. Stay tuned.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 8:57AM CDT 07/24/14
 

Wednesday 07/23/14

The Return of the Widow Maker
This month's action prompts another look at the natural gas market.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:02AM CDT 07/23/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 07/21/14

No Friends Yet for Cash Corn
The cash corn market continues to crumble.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 10:04AM CDT 07/21/14 by Darin Newsom | Post a Comment
Comments (9)
Darin this record production is so blown out of the water by this corrupt USDA "estimates".This government controlled "market" is not good for farming, this is supposed to be a free country, we now more than ever need freedom from government control. God blesses us with a good crop and we have to live with "market" collapses from "estimates." Again the only hope producers have for a fair price is a disaster some where. How sick is that.
Posted by DAVID/KEVIN GRUENHAGEN at 1:33PM CDT 07/21/14
David, Kevin: Thank you for your comments. My thoughts on all things USDA are well known. I've long been a proponent of letting the market, any market, sort out its own supply and demand issues. That's one of the reasons I focus so much attention on the cash value, the intrinsic value, of a market. To me it is a better indicator of strength/weakness. In the case of corn, the fact the NCI.X has fallen to the lower 34% of its price distribution range reflects the actual old-crop supply and demand situation that exists today. What will happen when harvest rolls around is hard to say, but I still believe the cash market will be a better indicator of how large production may actually be. Thanks again for your comments.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 2:20PM CDT 07/21/14
My problem isn't with the USDA's questionable stocks and production numbers, my problem is why our Government chooses to hamper American Agriculture by broadcasting these numbers to the world. To be fair and equitable, shouldn't the Govt. broadcast new car inventories, semi-conductor inventories, rolled steel, dishwasher, refrigerator, and other manufactured goods inventories (to name a few examples). Then everyone could decide when to purchase based on over-supply or shortage.
Posted by Lewis Flohr at 9:07AM CDT 07/22/14
Good morning Lewis. I share your thoughts in that this is not, nor was it ever, something the government should be projecting. Initially, USDA reports were intended to level the playing field between producers and large commercial traders who had access to supply and demand information. However, that system fell apart as spec trade in commodities grew and prices saw increasingly volatile swings on flawed data. Today, all kinds of fundamental information is available to traders/producers/etc. As I stated in Market Matters blog, USDA should be limited to one report, looking back at the previous marketing year rather than forecasting ahead monthly. Thanks for your comments.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 9:28AM CDT 07/22/14
Are all the producers wanting government out of the forecasting business because it influences prices also in favor of getting rid of RFS which skews demand and prices? After all, government doesn't require you to purchase a new car, semi-conductors, rolled steel, dishwasher, refrigerator and other manufactured goods (to name a few examples).
Posted by David Kessler at 11:28AM CDT 07/22/14
Interesting point David. But to me it doesn't change the argument that the system would be better served by ending monthly USDA supply and demand and crop production reports, replacing with one final backward looking accounting. Did the Energy Policy Act of 2005, including the RFS, change the market? Absolutely. But it changed all aspects of the market: Supply, demand, investment interest, basis, price distribution, etc. Thank you for your comments.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 11:45AM CDT 07/22/14
It is already 1.94 cash bid from Southwest Grain in Lemmon SD
Posted by JAMIE KOUBA at 11:52PM CDT 07/22/14
Good morning Jamie. I've been watching the developments in the cash corn market in the Dakotas on DTN's Cash Bid map. There are a number of locations that are getting close to that $2.00 mark in that part of the country. Thanks for your comments.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 5:06AM CDT 07/23/14
I didnt Know corn had any friends ever. most used under priced always costly to grow
Posted by andrew mohlman at 8:18AM CDT 07/25/14
 

Sunday 07/20/14

Grain Markets: Weekly Analysis
DTN's Weekly Technical Analysis: Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat 07/20[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:15AM CDT 07/20/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Saturday 07/19/14

Energy Markets: Weekly Analysis
DTN's Weekly Technical Analysis: Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Gasoline, and Natural Gas 07/19[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:19AM CDT 07/19/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 07/18/14

Wheat's Wild, Wacky Week
The Chicago wheat market was all over the place this past week.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 3:40PM CDT 07/18/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Thursday 07/17/14

Still Some Fight Left in Nov Beans
The commercial side of the soybean market could start to flex its muscle again.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:31AM CDT 07/17/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Tuesday 07/15/14

Bearish Signals Growing Clearer in Live Cattle
Technically, warning signs are flashing for the high flying live cattle market.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:05AM CDT 07/15/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Monday 07/14/14

Cotton Set to Turn Bullish
The downtrend in cotton could soon come to an end, according to many of the market's DTN Six Factors.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:46AM CDT 07/14/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Sunday 07/13/14

Grain Markets: Weekly Analysis
DTN's Weekly Technical Analysis: Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat 07/13[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:08AM CDT 07/13/14 by Darin Newsom | Post a Comment
Comments (4)
For additional analysis, mostly of the grain markets, here is a link to my appearance on the most recent Iowa Public Television Market to Market program: http://www.iptv.org/mtom/
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 8:34AM CDT 07/13/14
hard not to feel cheated when cost of production not covered.
Posted by andrew mohlman at 7:45AM CDT 07/14/14
darin dont forget king korn rules your dinner table and runs your car
Posted by andrew mohlman at 8:28AM CDT 07/16/14
Thanks for your comments Andrew. As you know, the analysis in "Louis Louis" is based on what is projected for corn supply and demand at this time. As stated in the piece, while supplies are expected to be cumbersome it is the 200 mb year-to-year reduction (by USDA) in demand that is the most concerning. This includes a 25 mb decrease in ethanol. As the piece concluded, none of this might come to pass. It's possible production isn't as large as expected and demand could stay stronger than projected. If so King Corn could come out of this with his head intact.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 9:14AM CDT 07/16/14
 

Saturday 07/12/14

Energy Markets: Weekly Analysis
DTN's Weekly Technical Analysis: Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Gasoline, and Natural Gas 07/12[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:05AM CDT 07/12/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
 

Friday 07/11/14

Why Corn Could Close Higher Friday
Though pre-USDA report estimates are bearish for corn, it is possible that the market, led by the December contract, could close higher Friday.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 7:53AM CDT 07/11/14 by Darin Newsom | Post a Comment
Comments (6)
Also, I will be appearing on Iowa Public Television's Market to Market program this week. Check your local listings for air time, or find it on the program's website: http://www.iptv.org/mtom/ It should be an interesting discussion given recent events in the markets.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 9:41AM CDT 07/11/14
Looks like no such luck Darin. If some sudden weather or world event doesn't take hold, the outlook for corn couldn't be much more bearish.
Posted by Peter Smith at 1:09PM CDT 07/11/14
the greedy bear cant stay out of the garbage till the bear knocks him out.
Posted by andrew mohlman at 5:20PM CDT 07/11/14
sorry bull knock bear out
Posted by andrew mohlman at 5:25PM CDT 07/11/14
Peter, you are correct in that it is going to take a dramatic change in weather or some sort of global event to change the path corn is on. It is interesting to look back at the monthly chart and see it has been more than three years now since corn established its major (long-term) downtrend. However, from a technical point of view, the corn market is sharply oversold (long-term). At some point this could create renewed buying interest. Friday's CFTC report showed noncommercial traders rebuilding a small portion of their net-long futures position, though this was through Tuesday, July 8 so we'll have to see what the next Commitments of Traders report brings.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 8:21AM CDT 07/12/14
Andrew, interesting thought on the greedy bear getting knocked out by the bull. As discussed in the blog, it could certainly happen if commercial buying returns to the corn market.
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 8:24AM CDT 07/12/14
 

Wednesday 07/09/14

Hog Cycles (No, Not the Kind You Ride)
The hog market has historically moved in a six-point cycle spanning three to four years. Given all the volatility that has been seen in livestock, does this pattern still hold?[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:01AM CDT 07/09/14 by Darin Newsom | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
One man's cycle is another man's Kawasaki.....
Posted by greg schimkat at 2:01PM CDT 07/10/14
 

Tuesday 07/08/14

Nov Beans: The Gap
The November soybean contract left a gap on its weekly chart Monday. The question is what kind of gap did is it?[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:27AM CDT 07/08/14 by Darin Newsom | 0 Comments | Post a Comment
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