Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Thursday 08/21/14

July 2014 Readings in Top Corn States

Last week the USDA reported in its August crop production report that U.S. farmers will harvest a record corn crop in excess of 14.0 billion bushels with the projected yield an all-time high of 167.4 bushels per acre.

This was really no surprise given the historically high crop ratings, positive assessments of the fields from farmers and crop scouts, and generally favorable growing conditions.

With regard to this latter point, one factor mentioned prominently has been the very cool temperatures seen through much of the Corn Belt this summer.

This was certainly of benefit to the crop when it was going through its critical pollination phase that is so important in determining yields while also helping conserve moisture supplies when conditions turned dry.

The trade is well aware that cool summers such as 1992, 1994, 2004, and 2009 helped produce record U.S corn yields those seasons.

With NOAA releasing their July 2014 weather data last week we examined July 2014 temperatures in degrees Fahrenheit for the top 18 corn producing states and the U.S.

This graphic shows those readings and the 1950-2013 average on the left hand axis while the right hand axis shows the July percentile ranking using the 1950-2014 data.

Start off by noting that 17 of the 18 states and the U.S. had average July temperatures below their respective 1950-2013 average with only Colorado seeing above average readings.

More remarkable was just how cool temperatures were last month.

Eight of the states had temperatures in the bottom 5% of the 1950-2014 range with Indiana having the coolest July ever at least going back to 1950.

14 of the 18 had July readings in the bottom 20% with only CO and TX not in the lower third of the range.

This pattern has continued into the month of August and that should be helping the soybean crop as evidenced by the unusual contra-seasonal rise in crop conditions this past week.

(KA)

Posted at 8:20AM CDT 08/21/14
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