Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Thursday 07/10/14

Corn States Setting Record High Yields

With corn conditions in stellar shape and about as perfect a weather forecast during pollination as one could possibly script, projections of what yields could be this year continue to grow.

The USDA's early season projection of 165.2 bushels per acre (bpa) seems like a lock with many in the trade expecting final yields well over 170 bpa.

A review of past high yielding years does show that strong results are needed throughout the Corn Belt, especially in the top states to achieve record national yields.

The accompanying graphic shows since 1981 the number of the top 18 producing states that saw record high state yields in an individual year vs. the percent that final national corn yields deviated from the 30 year trend.

The dark columns are those years since 1981 when the U.S. corn yield was also an all-time high.

This year is being compared to 1994 and 2004, years when fantastic growing conditions resulted in corn yields that year 10% or more above trend.

Both of those years saw below average summer temperatures, and for that matter, 1992 and 2009 also fall into that category.

Sure enough, all four of those years saw a large number of the top growing states achieve record high yields.

The top year was 2004 when 13 of the 18 states had all-time peaks with the national yield 12.4% above trend.

2009 had 12 record highs with the U.S. yield 8.3% above trend; 1992 had 11 states with record highs while the U.S. yield was 9.8% above trend.

In 1994 the U.S. yield was 12.1% above trend with 8 of the 18 states attaining their best yields ever.

If 2014 is one of those special years, a large number of the top states will also have to see record highs.

There is talk that some of the Upper Midwest states may be challenged in that regard given all the moisture they have received so far in June and now into July.

Yet most of MN and IA are flourishing while all the other states far and wide such as TX, NE, and PA and most everyone else in between are doing phenomenally well, at least so far this season.

(KA)

Posted at 10:55AM CDT 07/10/14
Comments (5)
over blown bs need to quit growing for a year to shut some mouths.cost of production should matter in long run it will or were all in trouble
Posted by andrew mohlman at 7:43AM CDT 07/14/14
In 1985 the U.S. corn carryout was about 4.04B bu. after already having the PIK program - paying people not to grow corn! In 1986 it grew to 4.88B and in 1987 it was 4.26B! The nearby late summer price range was $1.42 to $2.03 (from USDA balance sheet)! You've got it Andrew and nobody is worried about it but you and me! That's what this thing could become in the next year or two and it will be ugly! Oh by the way - $400 seed and 300 bpa won't fix it! Only more demand will! Take care!
Posted by Roger Cooper at 9:00AM CDT 07/14/14
were did all that corn go roger this country likes its corn
Posted by andrew mohlman at 8:19AM CDT 07/16/14
Unfortunately Andrew, droughts are about the only thing in our long range plan that gets rid of too much corn. Thank the Man for Ethanol - used about 5B bu. for that last year! Can you imagine staring at a 7B+ carryout and the price that would create! End users would be happy, happy, happy! They don't want the grain guy making any big profits!
Posted by Roger Cooper at 11:36AM CDT 07/16/14
Unfortunately Andrew, droughts are about the only thing in our long range plan that gets rid of too much corn. Thank the Man for Ethanol - used about 5B bu. for that last year! Can you imagine staring at a 7B+ carryout and the price that would create! End users would be happy, happy, happy! They don't want the grain guy making any big profits!
Posted by Roger Cooper at 11:36AM CDT 07/16/14
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