Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Monday 07/07/14

End of June Corn Crop Ratings for Top States

Last Monday's weekly U.S. corn crop condition report showed ratings as being the best since 1999 as of June 29.

This year's June 29 rating of 778 is the sixth best since the USDA started weekly crop condition reports back in 1986.

In addition to 1999, ratings as of June 29 were higher in 1986, 1987, 1991, and 1994 and shows how weather two or three decades ago seems improved from what is being experienced now.

With the national ratings this high, most of the 18 top states also have stellar conditions but we were interested in which states were doing extraordinarily well.

This graphic shows the June 29 corn rating for each of the top 18 states as of this year, the 1986-2013 average, the best year since ratings started back in 1986, and the 2014 rating as a percent of the 1986-2013 average which is plotted on the right hand axis.

The aggregate crop rating incorporates our usual ratings system where we weight the crop based on the percent in each category and assign that category a factor of 2 for very poor, 4 for poor, 6 for fair, 8 for good, and 10 for excellent and then sum the results.

As expected, most of the states as of June 29 are doing very well with only four having 2014 ratings under the 1986-2013 average.

This would include the Plains states of CO, KS, and NE for even with recent moisture, parts of each are still afflicted with serious drought.

Also MN is below average based on the heavy rains that state has received over the past month.

The highest rating belongs to PA at 814 but MO is the only one where conditions this year are the best ever as of June 29 and their current rating of 806 is 115% of the 1986-2013 average of 699, the highest percent of any state.

Even though it is early and the bulk of the nation's crop still has to go through the yield sensitive pollination period, expectations of a record U.S. yield are supported by very good conditions in almost all areas, east and west, north and south.

(KA)

Posted at 9:03AM CDT 07/07/14
Comments (2)
OK, enough with the big corn and soybean crops. We get it. Our only hope for decent commodity prices is a disaster. How low will the USDA push these prices? That's the real question right now.
Posted by DAVID/KEVIN GRUENHAGEN at 9:19PM CDT 07/08/14
Storage looks to be the short term salvation for the expected big corn crop. Larger term price support could come with South American acreage projections toward the end of our harvest this fall. These "low" prices do not provide incentive for acreage expansion. Brazil looks to be expanding domestic consumption at the expense of their exports. (Other countries will look to do the same. May will look to take advantage of "high" livestock prices and "cheap" feed. The demand for course grains for feed will be moving higher. This should provide increased demand for US corn.) China has the potential to maintain imports levels of past years. Argentina's economic position may hold corn production at current levels - at best. These things provide an opportunity for US corn exports to move to record levels especially if wheat hold a superior price position to corn. By spring of next year, prices might move higher with the expectation of this new level of demand in 2015-16.
Posted by Freeport IL at 2:15PM CDT 07/09/14
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