Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Thursday 01/30/14

USDA Production Changes From Feb Outlook Sessions to Final Figures

Next month the trade will be looking forward to the USDA’s first tentative 2014-15 balance sheet projections for corn, soybeans, and wheat at their annual agricultural outlook conference.

Based on computer projections including assumptions of normal weather or other supply or demand shocks, production estimates are included based on projections of planted and harvested acreage and trend yields.

This is a daunting task given that it is almost 11 months after these prognostications are made that the final production figures are released.

This graphic shows the percent that the final figure has deviated from the Feb Ag Outlook figure for corn, soybeans, and wheat from 1998 to 2013.

As expected, the largest deviations occur when there is unusually good or bad weather such as the bumper corn crop year in 2004 or the disastrous drought reduced corn crop in 2012.

On average, the USDA tends to overestimate corn and soybean production by 2.1% and underestimate wheat output by 1.0%.

It may appear that the USDA has a better handle on wheat production estimates than either corn or wheat but a look at the standard deviations of the annual percent differences shows the greatest variability for wheat with a 9.6% standard deviation vs. 8.5% for corn and 6.2% for wheat.

(KA)

Posted at 8:18AM CST 01/30/14
Post a Blog Comment:
Your Comment:
DTN reserves the right to delete comments posted to any of our blogs and forums, for reasons including profanity, libel, irrelevant personal attacks and advertisements.
Blog Home Pages
April  2015
S M T W T F S
         1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30      
Subscribe to Fundamentally Speaking RSS
Recent Blog Posts
  • Corn & Soybean Plantings by May 20th
  • Accuracy of USDA Initial Ending Stocks Estimates
  • Lowest New Crop Soybean Sales in 5 Years
  • Prospective 2015 U.S. Soybean Yield
  • Possible 2015 U.S. Trend Yield for Corn
  • Soybean Acreage Changes in Top States
  • Corn Acreage Changes in Top States
  • Palmer Drought Ratings in Top Corn & Bean States
  • Relation Between U.S. Dollar & CME grain markets
  • 5, 15 and 25 Year Acreage Trends for Soybeans
  • 5, 15 and 25 year acreage trends for corn
  • Wheat Export Sales and Shipment History
  • Acreage Changes from Outlook to Prospective Plantings Report
  • U.S. Soybean Sales & Shipment History
  • U.S. Corn Export History
  • Corn Yields & Stocks Estimates
  • Soybean Yields & Growth for Top Producers
  • Corn Yields & Growth for Top Producers
  • Wheat Yields & Growth Rates for Top Producers
  • Prospective 2015/16 Soybean Stocks