Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Friday 10/26/12

October Corn & Soybean Yield Estimates

For the third year in a row, the U.S. corn/soybean yield ratio has declined.

Using the October 2012 national corn yield of 122.0 bushels per acre (bpa) and the soybean yield of 37.8, the ratio at 3.23 is the lowest since the 3.22 seen in 1995.

In recent years, corn has garnered increased acreage as its net returns on a per acre basis have exceeded those for soybeans.

In addition, farmers had been more impressed with corn yields in recent years than soybeans.

With the Midwest now seeing three consecutive years of stressful summer growing conditions including high temperatures, beans have fared relatively better than corn.

The accompanying graphic shows how the October 2012 corn and soybean yields for the top 18 growing states for each and the U.S. came in as a percent of their respective 20-year trend yields.

Even with a horrific drought affecting much of the U.S. crop regions, there were some states that at least based on the October crop report had yields above their 20-year trend.

These include LA at 14.0% above trend, MN at 1.4% above trend, MS at 1.6% above trend, NC at 14.4% above trend, and ND at 4.6% above trend with AR at trend.

For corn, a completely different story as only NC at 12.0% above trend and TX at 14.4% above trend saw a decent performance with PA coming in at trend.

It appears that corn where production is really centered in the Midwest suffered the greatest losses from the severe weather that torched the mid-section of the country.

Soybeans, which are planted in a more geographically dispersed area, saw less damage.

This year the southern and northern states did much better than those states in the interior and that may have implications for plantings going forward.


Posted at 8:52AM CDT 10/26/12
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