Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Wednesday 10/17/12

Oct 1st Corn Supplies vs. Year Ago in Top Producing States

A lot of concern among end-users about corn supplies running out next spring, especially in the Eastern Corn Belt with basis levels for October record high even in the gut slot of harvest.

The accompanying chart looks at total corn supplies as of October 1, 2012 as a percent of total supplies as of October 1, 2011 for the top 18 producing corn states.

We do this by taking the total corn stocks as of September 1 and add to that the October production figures.

The lower than expected 9/1/12 corn stocks along with a mere 10.7 billion crop has total U.S. corn supplies down 13.8% vs. year ago levels but the shortfall in other states such as IL, IN, KY, and MO is much more extreme and this is where basis levels will be the strongest.

The graphic shows that on a percentage basis corn supplies in Kentucky will be the tightest relative to the prior year, down over 40%. Illinois corn supplies around October 1st this year are off 36% in percentage terms or a whopping 758 million bushels.

When looking at combined corn stocks as of September 1st and October production bushels vs. the year ago figures, almost all of the 18 states are down, some by large margins.

Some states show combined 9/1/12 stocks and Oct 2012 production bushels higher than the sum of 9/1/11 stocks and October 2011 production.

These include MN, which has 5.5% more supplies, ND that has 50% more corn for that time of year, NC, TX, and PA.

Note that the northern states such as MN and ND had better rains that other states in the central region of the country while peripheral states such as TX and NC fared relatively well.


Posted at 8:48AM CDT 10/17/12
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