Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Wednesday 10/17/12

Oct 1st Corn Supplies vs. Year Ago in Top Producing States

A lot of concern among end-users about corn supplies running out next spring, especially in the Eastern Corn Belt with basis levels for October record high even in the gut slot of harvest.

The accompanying chart looks at total corn supplies as of October 1, 2012 as a percent of total supplies as of October 1, 2011 for the top 18 producing corn states.

We do this by taking the total corn stocks as of September 1 and add to that the October production figures.

The lower than expected 9/1/12 corn stocks along with a mere 10.7 billion crop has total U.S. corn supplies down 13.8% vs. year ago levels but the shortfall in other states such as IL, IN, KY, and MO is much more extreme and this is where basis levels will be the strongest.

The graphic shows that on a percentage basis corn supplies in Kentucky will be the tightest relative to the prior year, down over 40%. Illinois corn supplies around October 1st this year are off 36% in percentage terms or a whopping 758 million bushels.

When looking at combined corn stocks as of September 1st and October production bushels vs. the year ago figures, almost all of the 18 states are down, some by large margins.

Some states show combined 9/1/12 stocks and Oct 2012 production bushels higher than the sum of 9/1/11 stocks and October 2011 production.

These include MN, which has 5.5% more supplies, ND that has 50% more corn for that time of year, NC, TX, and PA.

Note that the northern states such as MN and ND had better rains that other states in the central region of the country while peripheral states such as TX and NC fared relatively well.


Posted at 8:48AM CDT 10/17/12
Post a Blog Comment:
Your Comment:
DTN reserves the right to delete comments posted to any of our blogs and forums, for reasons including profanity, libel, irrelevant personal attacks and advertisements.
Blog Home Pages
April  2014
      1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30         
Subscribe to Fundamentally Speaking RSS
Recent Blog Posts
  • End of March Palmer Drought Ratings
  • Oct-Mar Rainfall for Key HRW States
  • Last Fall, First Spring Winter Wheat Ratings
  • Corn, Soybean Seeding Trends
  • Record First Half 2013/14 US Corn Use
  • IL April Weather Conditions Impact on Corn Seedings
  • Corn Plantings, Soybean Seedings
  • Change in Planted Acreage for Corn & Soybeans
  • U.S. Corn Feed Use
  • End of Feb Corn Exported & Shipped
  • U.S. Soybean Export Shipments
  • Ukraine Wheat & Corn Poduction, Exports
  • End of January Palmer Drought Readings
  • USDA Acreage Estimates
  • USDA Ag Outlook Farm Price Projections
  • Final U.S. Soybean Exports vs. February WASDE Projection
  • Change in USDA Yield Forecasts
  • Soybean/Corn Average Farm Price Ratios
  • Corn Export Sales History
  • Estimated 2014 Trends for Corn