Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Wednesday 10/10/12

Sept. Rains, Soybean Conditions as % of 25 Year Average

Anticipation is high that the 2012 U.S. soybean crop is understated as harvest results continue to exceed expectations, often by a wide margin.

In prior pieces, we noted that August weather in terms of temperatures and rainfall, though far from perfect was much more favorable than seen in July through the key growing regions of the country.

This helped soybeans,a later developing crop than corn to a large degree with the former seen having higher yields in subsequent crop production reports as opposed to corn where further yield reductions are likely.

September rains can also be beneficial to soybeans, especially the later planted varieties.

The accompanying graphic showsthe top soybean states and the U.S. 2012 September precipitation as a percent of the 1986-2011 average and end of September crop conditions as a percent of the 1986-2011 average.

As far as moisture, it is interesting that the better soybean yield reports are coming from the more western and northern areas of the Corn Belt for these are the exact same regions that saw dry conditions in August and now again in September.

Note that the Dakotas along with MN and NE has less than 25% of their average September rains while KS and WI had 50% or less.

On the other hand, the Eastern Corn Belt and Delta saw good precipitation, similar to what was seen in August.

As for crop conditions, this year’s drought has taken a terrible toll on U.S. row crop production with the September estimated yield at 35.3 bushels per acre (bpa) the lowest since 2003.

Yet one of the reasons cited for higher yield expectations is the steady improvement in crop ratings seen since mid-July.

This has resulted in six of the 18 top soybean states have end of September crop conditions higher than the 1986-2011 average with all in the south with the exception of MN.

Two more states, ND and KY are very close to average so almost half of the top states are seeing crop conditions close to the mean.

This would augur for at least some hike in soybean yields when the October crop production is released though perhaps not the 4-5 bpa jump that has been speculated.


Posted at 1:07PM CDT 10/10/12
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