Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Friday 09/14/12

August Temperatures, Rainfall Relative to Averages for Crop Corn & Soybean States

The USDA August yield estimates (from the Septemberreport)for corn and soybeans were mixed with corn coming on higher and soybeans a bit lower.

Nonetheless, the trade seems fixated on ideas that corn production will be revised lower while soybeans output may edge higher.

The reason being is that actual harvest results for corn continue to disappoint while early cutting of soybeans are showing better than expected results.

The reason for this maybe more favorable growing weather in August in the key growing states than seen in June or July which would benefit soybeans more than corn given they are a later developing crop.

The accompanying graphic shows the difference between the August 2012 temperature and the August 1986-2011 average August temperature in degrees Fahrenheit for the top corn and soybean producing states and the U.S.

Also plotted is the August precipitation for each of the states and the U.S. as a percent of the 1986-2011 average August precipitation.

This chart shows which states were relatively hot and dry compared to other states and the historical averages.

As for temperatures, CO at 1.6 degrees above average and TX 1.4 degrees higher were the hottest as the high pressure dome which bakes the Midwest in June and July retrograded west in August heating up the Plains states.

Six other states had August temperatures above their 25-year average but just marginally so, less than a degree above average.

This is quite a contrast to July when all states had above average temperatures, some 3, four, or even five degrees above average which is statistically remote.

As for rainfall, the Western Corn Belt and Plains states, under the influence of the high pressure ridge were quite dry with CO and NE having less than half their normal August precipitation and MN, IA, MO, and SD not that far behind.

On the other hand, the Delta states had copious amounts of moisture last month helped by the remnants of Hurricane Isaac with AR, LA, and MS having well over 150% of normal.

This may help explain why soybean yields in the Delta and Eastern Corn Belt are coming in higher than anticipated.


Posted at 8:21AM CDT 09/14/12
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