Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Wednesday 08/01/12

Corn, Bean Crop Poor Conditions Rival 1988.
The graphic shows the combined percent of the U.S. corn and soybean crop rated either in the very poor or poor categories as of July 22nd.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:01AM CDT 08/01/12 | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
The 2012-13 corn marketing year is basically bankrupt. The balance sheet shows there will not be enough corn to meet current demand. The current solution is to sell off assets: the ethanol market, livestock industry and/or exports. The option we will working toward, if growers go long with the plan, may be found from a cash flow point of view. The balance sheet indicates we will run out of corn in July of next year with the current projected level of use and production. If enough southern corn growers can be enticed to plant an early enough variety next year to be harvested in the old year, the level of asset sale could be reduced. The seed companies would have to switch variety mix planted in the southern hemisphere this winter. The futures market would and most likely will give provide an incentive to harvest early. An August CME corn contract may help the situation. The current price/profit levels seem to point to less cotton acres and more corn or soybeans. A good jump in imports and a switch to wheat feeding would also improve the situation. US Corn Inc. is bankrupt. A workout plan where a large amount of corn flow is switched between years could help lessen the level of asset sales. USDA has used this cash flow approach in their balance sheet in prior years. Do not be too surprised if they use it again. It shows up as a large reduction in feed and residual use although the livestock industry does not contract by the amount indicated.
Posted by Freeport IL at 3:47PM CDT 08/05/12
Averaging !935 and 1937, 1936 was 27% below trendline yield.
Posted by doug taylor at 2:44AM CDT 08/16/12
Blog Home Pages
August  2012
         1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31   
Subscribe to Fundamentally Speaking RSS
Recent Blog Posts
  • Week 33 Soybean Ratings
  • Week 33 Corn Ratings
  • USDA August Corn & Bean Yield Estimates
  • Rainfall, Temps in Top Corn, Soy States
  • End of July Soybean Crop Conditions
  • End of July Corn Crop Conditions
  • Late July Export Pace for Corn & Beans
  • Slowing Chinese Feed Demand
  • Week 29 Corn Crop Conditions, Yield Deviations
  • Week 29 Corn Ratings vs. Final Yield Deviation
  • Corn Crop Ratings vs. Yield Correlations
  • June 2015 Rainfall for Top Corn, Soybean States
  • Early July Corn Ratings
  • Early July Corn & Bean Ratings Above Average
  • Corn Yields Can Hold Despite Heavy Rains
  • New Crop U.S. Corn Export Sales
  • World Oilseed Supplies at All-Time High
  • New Crop Soybean Export Sales as of Mid-June
  • Effect of Heavy Spring Rains on KS & MO Soybean Yield
  • Changing South American Crop Estimates