Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Thursday 07/24/14

MN Corn Ear/Plant Ratio
This graphic is a scatterplot showing the corn ear/plant ratio going across the x-axis for the state of Minnesota vs. average July temperatures going up the y-axis in degrees Fahrenheit.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:34AM CDT 07/24/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (4)
two ears in a turned dry end of season worse than one. plant had too big idea like everybody else looks likley from here
Posted by andrew mohlman at 4:17PM CDT 07/24/14
I don;t know what part of the state your seeing these two ears,in sc minnesota,just a few fields that were planted early are even tasseling,and theres alot that won;t till mid Aug.,,and this is a very laege area this is happening to.Ive heard on the radio talk of 180,,totally not happening,if no frost till Oct 15,i;ll go with 149,,a frost the 20th of sept.,many fields won;t make grain,,
Posted by TERRY PIOSKE at 9:08AM CDT 07/25/14
As of July 27th, 61 % of the corn in Minnesota was tasseling. Thats plenty of acres to get a good idea of how many stalks have two ears.
Posted by BURNELL KELLER at 7:31PM CDT 07/28/14
A major frost event would be needed to change to fundamental outlook for the corn market. A model was developed to look at the possible frost impact on North Dakota corn yields and resulting reduction to US production. There appears to be about a 50% chance (1 in 2 years) of a yield reduction of 15% from lower test weight. This would reduce US production by about 0.8 bushels per acre. The model indicates a 25% chance (1 in 4 years) of a 20% North Dakota yield reduction and a 10% chance (1 in 10 years) of a 50% yield reduction. The highest level of damage would result in US production decline of around 3 bushels per acre. This is less than the "talked about" increase in US yield estimates when compared with the July WADSE yield projections for the 2014-15 marketing year. So the ending balance would likely end up higher then the current "street" estimates with the generally "good" growing condition of the US corn crop even with a major killing frost in North Dakota. Another state, like Minnesota, Michigan or Wisconsin, or a 1974 like event would be needed to have severe enough damage to change the US balance sheet enough to rally prices to the pre- June 30th level. Frost damage (light corn) does result in increased usage for ethanol plant and feed consumption. That increased consumption is hard to quantify - at least for us - and is not included in the balance sheet calculations. An ethanol plant that uses corn with a 20% reduction in test weight, from frost damage, might be required to use 11% more corn by weight or 38% by volume to net the same production target. The "light" corn would produce more ddgs - may be as much as 40% more than frost free corn - thus changing feed consumption and may be exports. Many corn fed species will require more pounds of frost damaged feed to have the same gain as "normal" grain but that may be partly or fully met by more available ddgs. The "market" is generally "slow" to see the increased demand side of frost damaged corn but it seems a wide spread event will be needed to cause much "stronger" prices in the long run. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 11:55AM CDT 07/31/14
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