Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Tuesday 04/30/13

Corn Planting Figures by Year
This chart shows the largest amount of corn planted in a one week and then two week period for each year in the U.S. since 1980 in million acres and that two week acreage as a percent of the March Prospective Plantings corn figure.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 1:08PM CDT 04/30/13 | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
It should be noted also that July 2009 featured July temperatures around 6 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit below normal in Iowa and Illinois.
Posted by Bryce Anderson at 2:52PM CDT 04/30/13
Friday, May 10, 2013, USDA will release their first official view of the new crop (2013-14) balance sheet. The market currently/finally noticed potential corn production problems; rallying a limit move in corn. (I do not remember this occurring on a non-report day but the mind is getting older.) USDA's first view of the new crop is a concern. They could print a conservative/bearish production number (as is their practice) with expectations of lowering it once the "2x4" hits them on the head. Their consumption numbers from February's Ag Forum would also be bearish if those are the numbers used in their first guess. There are reasons to be bullish and USDA could eventually drive the price train back to a higher station. However it may make sense to get off the track this time as the train could speed past us to lower levels. It looks from here like something more than a 3 million acre reduction in planted acres and a delayed planting yield penalty is needed to rationalize jumping on or staying on USDA's train expecting a round trip. (We have a detrended model similar to yours. We looked at the first two weeks of May as no yield penalty, the next two weeks at 90% of trend and the last at 75%. Our weighted yield reduction was 94% of trend.) It is hard to think of a factor that would cause a major up move. If or when the upward move occurs, it seems likely it will be more of a grind higher. But there are many factors that could cause a big down draft. Projections of big domestic production and weak domestic consumption seem to be the main two.
Posted by Freeport IL at 5:40PM CDT 04/30/13
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