Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Thursday 03/06/14

U.S. Soybean Export Shipments
This graphic looks at the amount of soybeans shipped from the third week of February to the end of the marketing year in August and shows that since 1986 the least mount shipped is 185 million bushels.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 8:34AM CST 03/06/14 | Post a Comment
Comments (2)
Excellent piece as always Joel. In your discussion that sales are 106% of USDA's February projection, the highest at this time on record, I also noticed that it is the only occurence of total sales being above 100% at this point of the marketing year. In your opinion, what could this project to for export demand in 2013-2014 given average shipments over the last half of the marketing year?
Posted by DARIN NEWSOM at 11:15AM CST 03/06/14
Hello Darin. Average shipments from the 3rd week of February to the end of the marketing year since 1986 have averaged 326 million bushels and the ten year average is 380 million. Taking out today's 43 million bushels shipped for the latest reporting week leaves 337 million bushels to be shipped on average using the last ten year's worth of data. Add that to the cumulative shipped total this year of 1.366 billion results in a projected total shipped figure of 1.703 billion bushels, 193 million above the last USDA estimate of 1.510 billion. This leaves the USDA in a real box for at most maybe 15 million bushels can be cut from the residual (resulting in a negative figure) and maybe imports can be increased 5-10 million. Fact is that crush margins remain at record high levels for this time of year suggesting the processing figure cannot be pared and even if the 2013 crop is higher than posted, that will not be changed till September 30.
Posted by JOEL KARLIN at 12:07PM CST 03/06/14
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