Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst

Monday 01/28/13

History of USDA Ag Outlook Forum Yield Estimates
The accompanying graphic shows the projected yields from 1998 to 2012 for wheat, corn, and soybeans and based on this 15 year history, a calculated 2013 trend yield is provided.[Read Full Blog Post]
Posted at 9:49AM CST 01/28/13 | Post a Comment
Comments (1)
Adjustments to one's corn marketing plan may be dependent upon a persistent drought in the western corn-belt. That dryness may not reduce production as much as one would think. The NOAA January 17, 2013 Drought Out shows a large area in the western and southeastern US where the drought is expected to persist into the spring. This area accounts for about 26 million planted acres of corn. Something like 10.5 million acres are irrigated with something like 15.5 million acres dry land. Irrigated yields in these areas have ranged from a low of 173 bushels per harvested acre last year to a high of 198 in 2009. The dry land crop ranged from a low of 90 bushels per acre in 2006, a high of 134 in 2009 and 100 bushels per acre in 2012. If historic relationships hold and the area produces the lowest historic yield (last ten years), we would expect production to drop 880 million bushel from an average outcome. This decline would show up as a 7.1 bushel per acre decline in US yield, if other parts of the country produce around a trend line yield. A decline of this level would be significant but not the "Game Changer" one might expect. (Our guess shows harvest prices, on the board, moving up $0.75/bushel from $5.50 to $6.25). One might need a "wider" drought fear and/or large failed wheat acres to see price rallies/levels of the past years. Freeport, IL
Posted by Freeport IL at 1:56PM CST 01/28/13
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